0.5% market share for plug-ins by 2015?
Great for media, but how about the real world?If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.
Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.
Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.
Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.
Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?
Labels: electric cars, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
11:59 AM
14 Comments:
Why is there no vouchers for hybrids ?
Give $3000 for every hybrid Made in the USA Pay for it by a gas tax or a oil import tariff
I like the idea of a gas tax and/or a tariff on imported oil.
Do you think this would stimulate domestic production?
Tom G.
I don't understand why you think the cash for clunkers program is so bad. It's definatley revamped auto sales, and more fuel efficient ones at that, though some may be buying ones that are only marginally more fuel efficient. Not Everyone can run out and buy a hybrid. More fuel efficient vehicles are a step in the right direction
Congress will spend at least another 2 BILLION for 'cash for clunker's but less than 2% of that amount for hybrid credits!! Where the friggin logic in that ??
In every other advanced country on this planet they offer about 50% more credits for 'green' cars as we do and offer hundreds of millions for this fund.
Here its a trickle, go figure.
Let's see if we can make some sense out of why we are only getting a 0.5% market penetration. We already know that part of the answer is cheap gas and another part is the high cost of a hybrid vehicle. So lets try working with a tariff on ONLY imported gasoline as recommended by 'Anonymous'.
According to government web sites we current import 302,000 barrels of gasoline per day. There are 42 gallons in each barrel so we import 12,684,000 gallons per day. If I multiple that by 30.4 days in a month we get 385,593,600 gallons per month coming from ONLY overseas suppliers.
Now lets look at what we could achieve with ONLY a $.25/gallon import tax on each gallon of ONLY gasoline. We multiple the 385,593,600 X .25 and we get $96,398,400 dollars/month of tax revenues. Wait a minute that must be wrong-the number is too big !!
We are currently selling about 40,060 hybrids per month in the U.S. so lets divide the $96,398,400/month by the 40,060 hybrids units sold. What do we get? How about $2,406.35 per unit.
Wow with only $.25/gallon tax on ONLY IMPORTED GASOLINE we could give everyone a $2,406.35 rebate check. Now if we were really serious what does $.50/gallon get us - about $4,800 bucks. At $1.00 per gallon we could knock about $10,000 of the window sticker price of a hybrid vehicle. Now that's some serious money!!! Where is my check book, I need one NOW!!!
Could this be done? Of course it could. Can we get it done; that my friends is the $64,000.00 question. Is their anyone in the government with the courage to even bring it up? Look at our very own hybrid blog site. As of today with 5,397 votes counted only 33% seem to favor a gas tax increase. Actually that's really a pretty good number :-)
Of course I don't know of a single politician who has even suggested such an increase and if they did they would probably want to use the revenue for some other program. Also to my knowledge there isn't anyone putting together some type of strategic plan to get this done.
We hear all kinds of plea's from our government to pass Cap and Trade and Health Care Reform but I don't hear anyone saying that we need to raise the gas tax so we can reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Is raising the gas tax on ONLY IMPORTED GASOLINE a good idea? I think it is - what do you think?
Just read an interesting article about the Clunker program and the Ford Focus is benefiting the most of the Big 3. SUV and truck sales continue to fall. Maybe this will turn out better than we thought! Still wish the program would of reached farther but I am glad to see small cars doing well. Would also love to see out of the box thinking like Tom suggests. Check out the NYT article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/04/business/04auto.html?_r=1&hp
Very good article ZenDude.
Thank you for the out of the box comment - I think LOL
I agree on the gas tax as long as its .25 cents that sounds like a great rebate if the gov. worked like that it would benfit the poor and middle class ppl that do all the work and dont get great benfits...2,400 rebate here i come... thanks tom
"Why is there no vouchers for hybrids ?
Give $3000 for every hybrid Made in the USA Pay for it by a gas tax or a oil import tariff"
I've advocated for such an idea. Get Toyota and Honda to build hybrids for the US in the US.
I don't like the cash for clunkers program because I don't think it's very efficient or effective. You can argue it is having somewhat of a positive effect, however, at what cost?
Moreover, I don't think now is the time to stimulate the US auto industry. I think tough times are good right now, especially with Congress wanting to reverse dealer closings, etc. Now is the time for tough love. Trim ALL the fat now that the government, and the taxpayers are so far into the auto industry.
Once they've proven they can move forward, then offers some stimulus, but make that focus exclusively on programs that make US auto companies competitive 5 to 10 years from now, not just to survive today.
tom-
I think a tax only on imported oil is interesting.
Still, I'd put a tax on all oil, but a bigger tax on imported oil. Nonetheless, considering the world oil market, i wonder if such a foreign-only tax could have any impact.
Regardless, the lack of conversation around these issues is the really appalling thing in the current moment.
zendude,
the latest word is that the corolla has passed the Focus. likewise, the Prius is also doing well.
i kind of covered this angle in my latest post, cash for clunkers drives Prius sales.
but I do agree that, minimally, those taking advantage of the clunker program acted more efficiently than I would have imagined.
Dear Dahcredyns:
Your post hits the nail right squarely on the head. Trying to get our current leadership to pass a targeted gas tax for the benefit of ONLY hybrid vehicle buyers would be almost impossible at this point in time.
The government is looking for money any place they can find it. Cigarette taxes, liquor taxes, a tax has even been suggested on employer provided health benefits.
I can almost guarantee you that an increase in the gas tax IS COMINGS but the revenue will not be used for something we think might have value. Of course everyone know why this is happening. You just can't keep spending trillions of dollars without sooner or later paying the piper.
I am currently working on a 3000 word paper for publication on Renewable Energy World.com. It will describe how we could use a targeted gasoline sales tax increase to REALLY jump start the renewable energy industry.
If it does get published I will let you know.
Have a great day
Tom G.
Yeah, please let us know.
Also, a gas tax was in the works a while ago, although not to increase fuel economy, but to cover infrastructure costs. So, eventually, there has to be an increase in gas prices.
Personally, I believe that the cause of ending foreign oil dependency has to be impetus and focus. Sell the people on a goal, not the means of getting there. Once they accept the goal, then they will be more accepting of the means, even if it does include a gas tax.
Post a Comment
<< Home