Plug-in vehicle success still far off in the future?
Will consumers buy expensive coal powered plug-in vehicles?The Government Accounting Agency (GAO) has completed its research on the benefits of plug-in vehicles, availability and challenges of incorporating plug-in vehicles into the federal fleet according to GreenCarCongress. While the report found that plug-in vehicles offer much potential, it also found lots of problems.
For instance America must either embrace nuclear or wide scale renewable power projects in order for plug-ins to reach their potential. Of course, each of these paths offers its own set of extensive problems, such as costs, public approval, etc. Moreover, significant cuts in battery costs, coupled with much higher gas prices, and a more robust auto demand, for instance, will be required to create enough demand for plug-ins to keep the technology moving forward.
Ultimately, the GAO report suggests that wide scale plug-in adoption, even at the Federal level, is going to be a complex process. More than anything, at least in my opinion, the report seems to imply that wide scale plug-in adoption might be much further into the future then many of us would like to believe.
Certainly, US automakers need to continue, even increase, their plug-in efforts, but isn't it becoming more and more obvious that US automakers need to completely reconsider their short-to-midterm auto production plans? For example, can the US auto industry continue to move forward without a direct competitor - in terms of cost and technology - to the Toyota Prius?
Labels: plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:14 AM
12 Comments:
This post has been removed by the author.
I think we may see electric cars evolve in about the same time frame as cell phones.
- In 1990, only rich folks had them.
-By 2000, cellphones were affordable by most middle class individuals.
- By 2005, Most individuals had a cell phone.
HD TV followed basically the same timeline....From expensive to affordable in about 10 years.
I think currently we are at stage one in electric cars in that they are available, but priced such that only the rich can afford them now.
Using that same timeline, electric cars will be affordable within 10 years and we will see them used my most individuals in 15 years.
I don't know. I read an analyst report the other day that said GM would only be producing 77,000 Volts per year by 2015. Other analysts have indicated by 2030, battery powered vehicles, combined, would achieve 20 - 30 percent of marketshare, the majority of them being non-plug in hybrids.
Also, while the cell phone is an interesting analogy, the cost difference is too extreme to be a fair comparison.
Even today, after a decade of hybrid technology, we're still only at 3 percent market share.
Ultimately, it seems to me that if we're serious about foreign oil dependency, etc., the path we're on now just won't get us there fast enough.
Hate to say it, but I agree with Dach. Plugin's won't be a major factor until about 10 yrs. From now, although I think the estimate that hybrid-electric vehicles will only make up 20 percent of the market is low. 45 to 50 percent would probably be more like it. Battery costs would drop tremendously in 20 years, especially if we can get some battery producing plants in the u.s., there by lowering cost. Obama's fuel efficiancy laws will really make the difference, as well. Does anyone agree?
Dach,
I see an acceleration of the timeline in the past couple years.
Two main reasons:
1. $4.00 gas last year was a wake up call
2. Barak Obama....
I think we'll see the American companies being left behind on their own development, but catching up by "buying" their way into the market...
If gas hits $4+, I think anything is possible. Nonetheless, there are still huge obstacles to cost effective lithium battery production.
Still, the traditional hybrids, at least NihM hybrids, will be more cost effective than plug-ins according to the research I've seen, unless goes up to $6.00+. Additionally, they'll be cheaper.
Thus, since survey after survey indicates that Americans are not willing to pay extra for hybrid technology, I doubt they'll pay even more for plug-in hybrid technology.
My worry is that US automakers are giving up on the cheap hybrid car space much the same way they gave up on small cars in the past.
And if it takes longer to really get the plug-in revolution going, those making cheap hybrids are going to eat the lunch of those only focusing on more expensive plug-in vehicles.
It doesn't take as much as most people think to break even or save money on a hybrid since most people buy a car using a loan.
$3000 only adds about $60 to a car payment. $5000 add about $100...
So....
If you save $60/month on gas you can spend $3000 for the hybrid feature at no out of pocket cost. If you save $100/month you can afford an extra $5000.
If you fill up once a week you will easily see a $60 per month savings on gas even at today's prices. As gas prices go up it gets even easier.
Keep in mind that Volt only seats 4. Due to the battery pack T shape runs between the rear seats, the interior room will be compact or sub-compact size. It will be competing with the Insight or the upcoming Yaris based hybrid that does not require plugging in and easy on the wallet (for half the price).
Consumers will decide if displacing 1,500 gallon of gas is worth the extra $20k for the life (150k miles) of the car. That's like $13 per gallon. Hmmm...
Assumptions: Yaris size hybrid gets 50 MPG and Volt gets 100 MPG, on average. MPGs may be higher because the mid-size Prius already get 50 MPG and Volt has potential to consume no gas at all.
Smurf - But that's five years before payback. Studies demonstrate that most consumers won't even consider hybrids until you get down to less than 3 years. In fact, most research indicates most Americans considering hybrids won't pay anything extra for a hybrid.
While I don't agree with this rationale, or lack there of, numerous studies have found this same pattern. Interestingly, similar studies have been carried out in Britain to the same result.
Thus, I think most Americans will be inclined towards cheap hybrids, not plug-in hybrids, simply because they'll be cheaper up front and they will offer a quicker return on investment.
I think plug-ins won't really get moving until about 2020, even then they'll be lucky to hit 5 percent marketshare.
Ultimately, I'm not trying to attack plug-ins. I'm just worried that automakers, especially US automakers, are putting too many eggs in the plug-in basket in an attempt to leapfrog cheap hybrids.
That's a foolish play in my opinion.
Toyota has largely claimed that cheap hybrids are going to be their bread and butter in the next couple of decades, as they also roll out various plug-ins.
That's a far more sensible approach I believe.
Dach,
Yes. The payback is 5 years, but that's not how most Americans think.
Americans live month to month.....
They buy cars with loans and trade them in before the loan is up, going from one car payment to the next.
For those Americans, the "monthly cost of ownership" is the real measure of a car's value. If the gas savings offset the increased loan payment, the monthly cost of ownership is the same.
If they happen to keep the car 5 years, the monthly cost of ownership goes down.
Batteries will never be made in the US due to the toxic chemicals involved in the manufacturing process. The EPA prevents it. That is why the Green technology is killing the air, water, and soil in the 3rd world to make the Prius drivers feel good about themselves.
Last anon-
So, you actually haven't done any research on this issue have you?
I have and I can tell you that you are completely full of shit.
There are some issues with batteries, just as there are with lead acid batteries. Yet, all can be mitigated and the upside is far greater than the downside, especially compared to petroleum-powered, lead-acid batteried cars.
But, go on, keep the ignorance alive!
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