Is the lithium vehicle revolution more hype than reality?
A lithium battery pack from HymotionThe other day one of GM's top Volt engineers, Frank Weber, claimed that by the second generation of the Chevy Volt, it was possible that battery costs could be halved. While I found that to be great news, I wondered how one could know such a thing if mass production of such batteries hadn't yet been demonstrated?
Then today I read a story about how GM's Global Battery Systems Engineering Group Manager, Joe LoGrasso, told the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference that "long-term commercial success [of lithium] may depend on the convergence of cell formats." Moreover, he claimed such convergence faced lots of obstacles and might not even be possible.
But, without such convergence, lithium success might not be possible?
These days, automakers have become marketing machines. Once Bob Lutz claimed that GM could have developed and produced a Toyota Prius contender with just a fraction of one year's marketing budget. Thus, automakers have a lot of money to spin hype and hope into publicly perceived reality.
One way or another advanced battery technology will make its way into the automobile, but is the lithium battery vehicle far more hype than reality today, and for the short to mid-term? Have automakers over-hyped the reality of current automotive technology, again?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, lithium battery, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:52 AM
5 Comments:
Dahc,
It is hard to say, which technology will dominate. Fuel cells are less efficient than electric cars (in terms of hydrogen production), but who knows what future advance will be. Plugin electric cars are a relaity, but not with the current gas prices. In addition, as you probably known, new types of gasoline engines (as efficient as disels) might change the picture. On the other hand, clean diesel cars and diesel hybrids can also make its own way. By and large, it seems that an electric revolution is put off for another couple decades.
The pace of LI ION development to dealer lots is positively staggering, compared to just 3 years ago, and this is even with a mini great depression going on!
The talk is no longer 'what if' its 'yes we can and want to!' and thats in any circle, from dealers to manufacturers, to the publics insatiable interest in gas saving technology. Combine all that with the bitter sweet and artificially created rise in gas prices, expected to rise to at least 3.oo a gallon this winter and you have a further impetus to create even more diversity and competition in the hybrid car world!
Phase II will be the soon to be released stimulus money to retrain hundreds of thousands of unemployed workers for solar, wind and energy savings projects... 'green' jobs, so that someone can actually purchase those new hybrids coming in 2010.
Its a bittersweet pill but once swallowed and given enough time and effort, the energy savings revolution will spark wonders for the USA and the planet. You can not get "too much" 'healing'...the more the better for us and our childrens sake :)
Automakers are putting very few lithium vehicles on the road for the next few years, perhaps even much longer.
This weekend Bob Lutz, father of the Volt, claimed only 5 percent of the population would be willing to pay extra for a vehicle like the Volt. So, it seems GM isn't planning any major movement towards lithium vehicles any time soon if they believe most of the population simply isn't ready.
Moreover, automakers receive CAFE credits for building these vehicles. Thus, for every Volt GM sells, they get to sell many more trucks, even if they are a little short of achieving their CAFE requirements.
Ultimately, lithium probably isn't cost-effectively scalable until their is wide scale convergence, yet the auto and battery industries seem many years away from even having a serious conversation about convergence.
we are making progress, but it's still all just baby steps.
I actually found your comment on the amount of money spent on the marketing hype most thought provoking.
Pretty crazy isn't it. I once jokingly wrote is GM a car company, or a marketing company that happens to sell cars, as I was equally shocked to learn about GM's marketing budget, although I'm sure the government will probably put that budget in check.
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