1,000,000 hybrid cars sold per year, but none American
Will American automakers ever offer a $20,000 Prius-contender?Within about the next year Toyota and Honda believe they will, combined, begin selling 1,000,000 hybrid cars per year. American automakers on the other hand, combined, won't even sell 100,000 hybrids.
Certainly, American automakers have future products intended to leapfrog the Toyota Prius, but how realistic are those plans?
For instance, Toyota also has plans for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Can a vehicle like the Chevy Volt steal all of Toyota's green market share? I mean honestly, GM is still many years away from producing 100,000 Volts per year. Doesn't GM need much, much more than the Volt?
Perhaps gas prices will decline, or at least stagnate for a number of years. If not, however, is there any real reason to believe that US automakers are anywhere close to being correctly positioned for the future?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, Hybrid Vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:40 AM
24 Comments:
It is a shame that the American car companies got left behind, but it's their own fault.
I got tired of waiting for the American car companies to produce a hybrid that I wanted so I finally broke down and bought a Japanese hybrid.
My first non-American car....
i know the feeling. i really wanted to buy an american hybrid as well for my last purchase. but i don't like SUVs, so what other choice was there?
yet, it doesn't seem like many new real choices are going to emerge from american automakers for, minimally, a few more years.
it's very disappointing.
Dahc,
What about Ford hybrid Fusion and For Explorer (though you might call it SUV) it is a car.
The fusion hybrid wasn't available when i last purchased.
Still, between the Fusion and the Escape hybrid, that's only 50,000 hybrids per year.
It's available now. There are visibly many more Ford hybrids taxis in New York City than Toyota hybrids. That's again is not zero. Ford is good.
And with Toyota shamelessly bashing the idea of plugin hybrids, American autoindustry has a good chance to catch up.
LB-
It's still just 50,000 hybrids per year, and it will probably be only 50,000 hybrids until 2011, when Ford launches another hybrid.
And so what if Ford has more hybrid taxis in NYC. I guarantee that has something to do with unions.
Moreover, Ford isn't offering a plug-in hybrid until 2012. Before then it will offer a small amount of EVs.
GM will only make 10,000 Volts in 2011, and production will slowly ramp up from there over the next few years - if everything goes perfectly well.
I'll bet that Toyota will outsell everyone when it comes to plug-in hybrids. Toyota isn't bashing phevs. toyota has simply said it will offer the technology when the technology is ready.
Just because american automakers blabber on about their future products for several years before offering them doesn't mean they are any further along. In fact, in many marketing circles its considered poor practice. However, when you have no product, what choice do you have but to hype your future, unproven products?
Nonetheless, the facts remain the same. By next year Toyota and Honda could very well be selling 1 million hybrids per year. The US auto industry, on the other hand, will be selling far less than 10 percent of what Toyota and Honda will be selling.
Are you really trying to argue that Ford and the rest of the big 3 aren't really doing that bad?
I don't know what Toyota is going to sell when it is ready, but the falsehoods broadcasted by its representatives are worrisome.
Ford is seemingly doing a good job with both SUVs and sedans having great mileage. Toyota seemingly got stuck with last century technology and not improving mileage much.
I'm not following LB. Last I read, Toyota's CAFE average is higher than Ford's.
What "falsehoods" are you referring to?
This post has been removed by the author.
For Prius - yes, for Camry NO.
But Prius, despite qualifying as mid-size sedan, is smaller than Fusion.
Falsehoods of plugins achieving 50 mpg in most conditions. I suppose that so-called "studies" reproduce conditions in which the plugin is actually never charged properly, which might be a true reality of cities like Tokyo or New York, but completely false for American suburbs, where most people live in houses
LB,
Very respectfully, I think you are missing the point. In order to be competitive in the market, or to make a dent in improving the overall fuel efficiency of their fleet, Ford has got to sell way, way more hybrids, PIH, and electric vehicles. It's the absolute number of units out the door or on the road that matter, not just how good the per vehicle performance numbers are.
GM is aiming to sell 10M vehicles per year after restructuring, and that number is actually on the low side so that they can go into their second life on the conservative side. So with those numbers in mind, 10K Chevy Volts represents 0.1% of the GM fleet. That is absolutely nothing. Even if you increased it by a factor of 10 to 100,000 they would only get to 1% of their fleet. And that is still in the noise.
My bet is that once again the established US auto industry will have again missed a transformational change that is right in front of their face. Our best hope for the American auto industry is with new start-ups like Tesla, Fisker, and Aptera.
LB--
Those are NiMH plug-ins. Toyota hasn't released data on lithium plug-ins yet. That data will come this fall and winter when Toyota starts leasing lithium plug-ins.
Those are NiMH plug-ins. Toyota hasn't released data on lithium plug-ins yet. That data will come this fall and winter when Toyota starts leasing lithium plug-ins.
Then they should not compare it with Li-Ion conversion.
Energy Independence,
I agree that this is too few, but I strongly disagree on the usage of word none.
Dahc,
GM cannot plan to sell 10 million vehicles a year. 10 million vehicles a year - it is the whole US automarket of which GM has only say 30-50%.
lb, you are making nothing out of nothing on this prius issue.
and 'none' is an exaggeration used to underscore a point.
i didn't say 10 million vehicles, and IE might have meant worldwide
however, a few years ago we were selling something like 17 - 18 million vehicles per year in america alone. so i'm sure gm was making a lot more cars 3 years ago than this or last year.
Ok, with GM and 10 million, a good point they sell worldwide. I am probably wrong. The Prius issue is not a minuscule and I really wonder how such technically savvy and technologically advanced company as Toyota that started hybrids when everybody was laughing at the idea is making such nonsensical statements, which I would expect from say a GM CEO not from Toyota's. Maybe they just need to justify their desire to make as much money as they could with current generation of hybrids and do it badly. Anyway, I am pretty sure that competition will place everything in its right place. Plus, if Toyota lags, it is a good chance for American startups to catch up. Startups, unlike huge corporations, embrace new ideas very quickly. For everybody benefit.
Ha looking at all those posts its clear that there is one side which will never admit it, they want to buy GM or Ford products and like them even now...doesnt really matter the PRICE or mileage or whatever they like them!
Then there are the 'nagging' pragmatists...ha who bug the hec out of the first group for talking number and facts...;)
The truth for me is that yes Ford can offer a good hybrid but with any basic features your looking 8k MORE than similar equipped Prius III....ok fords car is little bigger..that wont matter guys, its the PRICE that will scare people away from Ford ...
In meantime back the ranch reality checkers see this fact
ONLY Hyundai, Toyota and Honda next year will offer very GOOD priced COMPACT great hybrids for drive out price of under 20K!
Thats in a a nutshell, neither Ford nor GM will or can offer similar quality, warranty and PRICE for great hybrids..its a no contest guys sorry :(
" In meantime back the ranch reality checkers see this fact
ONLY Hyundai, Toyota and Honda next year will offer very GOOD priced COMPACT great hybrids for drive out price of under 20K!"
this is a very important point.
when we talk about American Automakers not making the cars people want.. they clearly do when it comes to SUVs and trucks but they clearly don't when it comes to hybrids.
It's not that the American car makers can't make small efficient cars - they do that in Europe and other foreign locations.
I just have to conclude that the American Car makers do not think that hybrids are the "sweet spot" of the American markets.
What Toyota and Honda have proven is that ...they too can make behemoth SUVs... but they can ALSO make small, fuel efficient... RELIABLE and Inexpensive cars - that include hybrid models.
When you look at the Chevy Volt and try to see how it finds a niche.. it's hard to do.
It's not a reasonable price. It
s not as versatile as a SUV or even a modern 4-door pickup for that matter...
another way of looking at this is this way - if there is a market for 1,000,000 hybrids, it's pretty clear that the American car makers don't consider that market a priority.
I have a real problem with the Ford limiting production to only 25,000.
1. 25,000 Hybrids per year does not help achieve foreign oil independence or reduce pollution.
2. A "limited edition" vehicle always comes with a "limited edition" price. For the same features, the Ford Fusion Hybrid is considerably more expensive than the Civic, Insight or the Prius...
The American car companies, even if you count the Fusion and Escape, still don't produce a Hybrid that Americans want to buy...
Larry,
I think you're right about American automakers not taking the hybrid market very seriously. And, if gas prices can stay below $3.00, the lack of American hybrids probably won't hurt that badly.
However, if gas prices can achieve a sustainable spot above $3.00, the lack of hybrids could be the final straw.
"when we talk about American Automakers not making the cars people want.. they clearly do when it comes to SUVs and trucks but they clearly don't when it comes to hybrids.
It's not that the American car makers can't make small efficient cars - they do that in Europe and other foreign locations.
I just have to conclude that the American Car makers do not think that hybrids are the "sweet spot" of the American markets."
Exactly.
Detroit does not think that small cars and especially NiMH hybrids are the "sweet spot" because they didn't make the necessary investments 15-20 years ago, made by the Japanese, to be able to compete in that market that really is a "sweet spot" for those companies that can compete. Detroit made choices, they lost, and they can't magically make up for a lost 15 years of R&D.
Ford is bringing their European small cars to America. It is interesting to me, however, that it seems not even the European small cars are competitive with the Japanese small cars in America. Ford has to lower the price of their Euro small cars to compete with the Japanese in America. That's tough!
I think Japan's previous R&D investments and focus really create high barriers to entry for Detroit and even European companies. The Japanese are really good at building smaller cars and now NiMH hybrids, just like the German are incredibly good at building luxury/sport sedans, and Detroit was great at building trucks and SUVs for the old US market.
I don't like Detroit's chances. Sure they can build them and sell some, but they won't get the market share or profits Toyota and Honda will get.
If small cars and NiMH hybrids are the best way to achieve foreign oil independence, does that just mean that Detroit has no choice but to enter the Thunderdome against the Japanese in the small car, cheap hybrid market, regardless of how little profit they should expect for the foreseeable future? IF so, it seems the only way to make small cars more profitable for Detroit, and the Japanese, is to raise fuel prices.
Dahc has been correct all along, eh?
However, EVs and EREVs are the first market disruption with the chance of dislodging the Japanese from the small car, cheap hybrid profits. It would be a huge mistake to miss that opportunity to take market share from Japan, or worse cede that market to Japan or China.
American technical achievements are the product of the American educational system and, more importantly, the level of cultural esteem in which engineers are commonly held. It's like on the show "Friends". When Ross the palentologist starts to talk about science. They all cover their ears and make noises to avoid unneeded contact with "boring science stuff". I have seen a similar attitude toward engineering. To me, this explains quite well the whole Japanese technical leadership thing.
We're no doubt a culture that embraces fame driven by entertainment, not real achievement.
It certainly seems our educational system could be put to better use. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening any time soon.
GM and Chrysler should "suck it up" and license Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive, just like Ford and Nissan did. Just because it wasn't invented in USA doesn't mean it isn't any good. Cars manufacturers around the world tend to share ideas. For example, Chrysler has always made a great minivan, if they made a hybrid one, there's sure to be a market for it if the price premium isn't too big (say $7,000). Our 1998 Voyager needs to be replaced, so hurry up Chrysler!
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