Focus on Ford: What's the real state of lithium?
Why wasn't it lithium?In 2010 Ford will roll out its all electric transit van. The next year a small EV will follow. However, less battery intensive lithium hybrids and plug-in hybrids won't hit the market until 2012 under Ford's current plans. Why?
Ford claims their new lithium battery technology will offer 5 percent more power than NiMH. More important, however, their lithium batteries will be 30 percent smaller, 50 percent lighter and about 30 percent cheaper to manufacture than NiMH.
Really? When? Because it's obviously not today, otherwise Ford would have added this technology to the Fusion hybrid, especially since the Fusion hybrid is less battery intensive than an EV. Moreover, Ford is only going to make 25,000 of these hybrids per year. So, such an implementation would have been minor compared to 25,000 EVs per year.
Yet, today, Ford doesn't plan to roll out a lithium hybrid until 2012, even though it would make such hybrid vehicles more powerful and cheaper? Why?
Many lithium experts have pointed out that hand producing lithium batteries for a handful of autos isn't a problem, it's cost-effectively mass-producing them in a way that guarantees absolute reliability for hundreds of thousands of vehicles that's the real concern.
If Ford couldn't safely and cost-effectively mass manufacture its new lithium technology for just 25,000 hybrids - about 2,000 battery packs per month - how close can we really be to the lithium revolution?
Labels: Ford fusion hybrid, Hybrid Vehicles, lithium battery
posted by Dahcredyns at
10:00 AM
7 Comments:
"Many lithium experts have pointed out that hand producing lithium batteries for a handful of autos isn't a problem, it's cost-effectively mass-producing them in a way that guarantees absolute reliability for hundreds of thousands of vehicles that's the real concern."
What this also means is that the Japanese, Chinese, and Korean battery makers haven't cracked the Lithium nut yet either. It's an open field. NiMH? Fully matured, and cost effective manufacturing...in Japan. Notice how Korean and Chinese auto makers are NOT taking about cheap hybrids using NiMH.
I guess the way I see it, Korea and China are investing desperately in Lithium to ensure that they don't lose to Japanese battery makers, again, or the US. Although at this point the US is only a potential competitor.
What's interesting is that Korean and Chinese companies are talking about cheap Lithium hybrids, not large Lithium EV type cars. This makes some sense, even though NiMH is currently cheaper, if the race you are running is the Lithium battery race, as opposed to the Hybrid car race. Countries like Korea and China organize their industrial companies strategically and make investments across industries. So the investment is in Lithium not Hybrids, is my guess. Hybrids just happen to be the best way to support Lithium at this time.
In the US, GM and Ford work independently on Lithium. Big handicap. GM is betting that they need to immediately work on large Lithium batteries, and Ford looks like they are betting on small Lithium batteries. IF the US had a coordinate Lithium effort across industries Ford's approach makes more sense: bigger volumes, incremental improvements, cheaper. But the US doesn't, and when GM had to place their bets in isolation, I can see why they had to take the gamble on trying to get a multiyear head start on Large Lithium batteries.
And don't forget, until the Large Battery credits passed by Congress, who knows how serious Ford's Lithium efforts were. Again, GM took a big risk on the Volt even before that credit. Of course, GM was probably betting on that credit, and if it had not passed, GM would have rightly canceled the Volt immediately, IMHO.
I don't think that Asian companies have necessarily cracked the lithium nut, but they had to have been close.
I had a similar conversation with GM's Jon Lauckner. Once GM started thinking seriously about hybrids, the development costs of NiMH just seemed to high compared to how close lithium appeared to be, especially at average gas prices - minus last year's spike. However, Jon fully understood why Toyota wouldn't rush into lithium.
While Toyota was very close to rolling out the new Prius with lithium. If the Prius was only moving 25,000 units per year, then I'm sure Toyota would have done it. But rolling out in several hundred thousand hybrids after Toyota's significant investment into NiMH didn't make sense.
The risk/reward wasn't there, especially since there was really no competition. One bad accident, wouldn't just have stymied Toyota's lithium developments, it would have killed the Prius.
Ultimately, no automaker has invested as much into NiMH technology as Toyota, not even close, and it took years - a decade - for this investment to mature. Thus, it's too late for Asian manufacturers to chase NiMH, or even US manufacturers.
Why small format? As you point out, Asian manufactures are thinking smaller formats, but I think that's because they are more cost-effective and efficient, at least according to most studies.
Still, I don't give GM any credit for battery development, nor do I credit the tax credit much.
Almost every fuel cell vehicle made in the last 5 years, even those made in the US, were made using lithium battery technology. GM, Ford, Honda, etc. have been playing around with lithium long before the Volt was even a concept.
Also, while I understand your competitive argument, in terms of between US automakers, I think it's too be expected.
Some believe that lithium technology might be more important than autos themselves in the not so distant future. Thus, proprietary chemistry, manufacturing techniques, etc. might be the key to surviving the future, especially for US automakers.
Let's be honest, China doesn't totally respect our patent laws and they have far cheaper manufacturing. However, for US automakers, the patent might be all they have to hang their hat on if the lithium revolution holds true.
One quick comment on China's cheaper manufacturing.
I don't think Lithium will be a cheaper manufacturing type industry, although I may of course be wrong. So let's say I hope Lithium won't be about cheap manufacturing. As an example, I don't think China has any major Silicon transistor chip factories, and if they do it would only be because of subsidiaries from the US, Korea, or Japan silicon companies.
But this might just be wishful thinking on my part. I suspect battery manufacturing is not at all as hard or capital intensive as silicon chips. You can still be the best, like Toyota with NiMH, but with all the competition and investment across the globe going into Lithium, I don't think anyone is going to dominate like Toyota was able to. Everyone else was asleep and that won't be the case with Lithium.
And to think, Toyota's win all came about because of California's EV mandate in the 1990s. Toyota deserves credit for being the most responsive to that "government interference," read "wise, new market rule."
The one bright spot is that Lithium battery cars may be a relatively small market for a long time. Why is that a good thing? It will be hard to make any money, so you will need to make a serious long term commitment, and have very high quality infrastructure and focused strategic assets to support your Lithium efforts. Some countries may get cold feet after awhile, especially if the US and Detroit make a massive and coordinated early commitment to demonstrate their seriousness.
I really love Hybrids because less gas and produce less pollution per mile than conventional gasoline engines.
I know you've made that point about Chinese manufacturing before, and I think its a pretty good point. I'm not sure how true it is, but America does have advantages in technology R&D without doubt. How that translates to manufacturing it an interesting issue. However, most lithium manufacturing, for cell phones, etc., is occurring in Asia.
Still, I take issue with your slowly rolling out lithium. I think America's best chance is to aggressively roll out lithium vehicles. I don't think we can move fast enough. The faster we move, I believe, the better the chances we can dominate this industry.
There are already BYD lithium vehicles on the streets of China. Not many, and a few vehicles really doesn't prove much. Still, Warren Buffett is a big fan of this company. To me, that's scary and a real warning to the US auto industry and US politicians in charge of energy policy.
Well from Internet sources I have read the Chinese THIS YEAR are producing LITHIUM all electric urban vehicles and modified hybrids will be in full force in 2010. Hyundai THIS SUMMER is selling Lithium POLYMER battery hybrids in Korea(Forteo) and in 2010 the Forteo will be HERE for sale.
Toyota will mass produce est 150+k Lithium PRIUS's for sale HERE in 2010!
Lithium will be for sale in abundance in 2010,,,, who cares what excuses Ford or GM make really ?
Overseas companies have beat USA by full 2 years! Dont believe me ? Watch for SPRING 2010 and then say I am wrong :) ,,,and by then the pent up demand will be super high as will gas prices again, great combo for hybrids!!:)
I believe you, and so does Warren Buffett. That fact alone should scare the hell out of the US auto industry and our politicians in Washington that are going to, ultimately, invest more than $100 billion in the US auto industry.
Thus, I wish that US automakers would be more aggressive, especially Ford. It just seems that right now Ford is a bright spot in the US auto industry. Taking a little risk to be seen as a real innovator would really propel Ford in America, I believe.
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