2015: Can Chrysler and GM be profitable in the US?
Or will they fall further behind?By 2015 it seems quite obvious that Toyota and Honda will be pumping out more than a million small hybrid cars per year.
Will GM or Chrysler offer any small hybrids?
Certainly, GM will offer the Chevy Volt, but it won't be either price competitive with these small Japanese hybrids, nor will it be profitable.
If efficiency is the driver of the future auto industry, how can GM and Chrysler compete in the new world order if they still cannot compete with the Toyota Prius or the Honda Fit hybrid either today, or in 2015?
Certainly the administration's efforts to protect the US auto industry, particularly to save as many auto industry jobs as possible, are noble in intent, but will they lead to profitable companies?
Also, is it fair that the government will ultimately pump, minimally, $50 billion into GM for its failures while Ford gets nothing for its business intelligence? Are we rewarding failure rather than success? Is that really the path to a healthy, profitable US auto industry?
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:01 AM
5 Comments:
It seems to me that US automakers will not get serious with hybrids until the move to Lithium, even for small battery hybrids. Japan just has too much of a cost advantage with NiMH for the US automakers to compete on that field.
So I figure the true competition will be NiMH hybrids vs Lithium hybrids and EREVs, and the US automakers feel they have no choice but to place their bets on Lithium. If so, I share your pessimism about US automakers. Lithium won't be able to compete with NiMH in the current market for years. Lithium will need subsidies, R&D support from the government, and maybe even rule changes that would tilt the field toward Li hybrids and EREVs.
That's a tough play to see working without total commitment from the US government.
Politically speaking, and that is what is needed in a near great depression - NO president whether McCain, Palin or Obama would have had a prayer of expecting a 2nd term if they let our #1 manufacturer go down the tubes. You are right we could have literally built THREE entirely brand new GMs corporations with new plants, workers, new equipment, new technology and more - from scratch, for LESS than we have and will continue to give to GM and Chrysler.
On the other hand with the money loaned with little outcry from 'big business' we literally could have purchased several Bank of Americas, CitiBanks and more with the money we have loaned them as well.......it doesnt make sense in long run but in short run, how do keep millions from starving in our country if you dont ?. We dont make any products anymore, we just offer services :(....I dont know the answer and either does Washington most likely.
Here is another government program to support a US Lithium battery business:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124329271803452475.html
"In one of the government's biggest efforts at shaping industrial policy, the Energy Department has been soliciting applications for $2.4 billion in funding aimed at turning the U.S. into a battery-manufacturing powerhouse. At the deadline last week, the department said it had received 165 applications.
Companies vying for the federal money include General Motors Corp., Dow Chemical Co., Johnson Controls Inc. and A123 Systems, a closely held battery maker backed by General Electric Co. and others. States including Michigan, Kentucky and Massachusetts are also weighing in with applications, usually in alliance with their favored battery makers."
With that kind of effort behind Lithium what incentive is there for US automakers to invest too much into NiMH hybrids?
Of course, it would be interesting to know how much government investment China, Japan, and Korea, not to mention Europe are putting into Lithium. Is the US effort serious enough to pay off in 5 years?
From the article it looks like Kentucky wants to be a Li R&D center and Michigan wants to attract the actual battery manufacturing plants.
Anyway, just another data point.
alcatholic-
Europe and Asia are already far ahead of the US in terms of lithium manufacturing. I highly doubt the US is going to jump frog anyone with this money.
Moreover, I'd still bet that Asia, for certain, will be able to more cost-effectively manufacture these batteries. Plus, countries like China have far greater access to lithium than does the US.
And I don't disagree with your lithium v NiMH take, as I've made similar arguments.
Still I've not heard any US automakers mention a hybrid that will compete with the Prius once lithium is developed. Instead, they are, in theory, trying to leapfrog the US.
I don't buy it.
So far we know that the Volt is, at least today, an inefficient user of lithium. Even worse, it won't be profitable until 2020 or later according to even Obama's task force.
The plug-in Prius will be far more cost-friendly to consumers and it will probably be far easier to achieve profitability. Plus, there will still be the regular Prius, a smaller city Prius, and maybe even an EV Prius.
Still, that's not an argument against the Volt. It's just range extended EVs are only a piece of the solution. Perhaps, GM's BAS w/ lithium hybrid system can fill the void, but I doubt such technology is going to result in a real Prius contender.
To me, US automakers are playing the same games they always have. I really wonder if they can do the right thing without much higher gas prices simply forcing their hand.
anon-
I don't disagree, but I think the UAW, US auto corporations and the administration are all thinking short term.
A couple of years ago the US was buying almost 18 million cars per year. Now we're down to less than 10. Even worse, the auto industry is supposed to retool towards efficiency and smaller a vehicles - an angle that US automakers have blown now for decades.
Yet, despite everything, they appear to still be missing the boat. Honda and Toyota are quickly ramping up their hybrid efforts, while GM focuses on vehicles like the Cruze.
How could you not at least also coordinate a Cruze hybrid into your plans? A non-hybrid Cruze is something that GM should have rolled out, minimally, a decade ago.
The US auto industry thinks in terms of quarterly reports and fairy tales.
Thus, I guess if taxpayers are ultimately going to pump as much as a hundred billion, or maybe much more, into the US auto industry, I'd like to see it manifested as part of a much bigger vision than it is today.
I mean, really, take the bull by the horns and use the auto industry to end foreign oil dependency by 2025 with a solid, transparent plan.
Today, we're still just trying to survive the next quarter as we wait for fairy tales like the Volt to put the US auto industry back on top. Yes, the Volt is more realistic than decades of fuel cell fairy tells, but if GM is more than a decade away from Volt profitability.....
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