Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics
Plain and simple cost effectivenessLater this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.
So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.
The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.
Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.
FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, electric cars, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:30 AM
5 Comments:
FULL STORY
Plain and simple cost-effectiveness
Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.
So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.
The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.
Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.
Moreover, I'd be willing to bet a hefty sum of money that electric rates will go up significantly in the next few decades, regardless of whether autos start tapping into the grid in great numbers or not, but that's a different story.
Finally, an econo EV, such as Nissan's electric EV based off the Cube might cost between $20,000 - $30,000. If these figures hold up, after a $7500 tax credit, the EV might cost as much as a Prius, but offer far cheaper refueling.
Of course, the Prius offers much more range and functionality, but if you don't need that range or functionality, Nissan's EV could be a hell of a bargain. Again, however, that tax credit won't last long, and if Nissan's EV is closer to $30,000, the Prius still matches up well until gas prices rise towards $5.00 per gallon.
Still, a cheap EV with 100 mile range isn't going to please everyone, however, adding range extended functionality isn't a terribly cost-effective option. Moreover, if you need the Volt because 100 miles of EV range isn't effective, then the Volt becomes less cost-effective compared to the Prius even if gas is $4.00 or $5.00.
So what will consumers do?
Ultimately, Americans and most consumers are driven by simple economics and simple needs, but not always simple logic. Once tax credits for battery-powered vehicles are expired, hybrid vehicles such as the Prius, are going to continue to make great sense to many Americans for a long time. Yet, automakers like GM and Nissan, have no concrete plans to produce small, cheap hybrids.
Toyota, however, isn't just going to produce the Prius and even smaller, cheaper hybrid cars, but also plug-in hybrids and EVs much like Nissan's Cube. This diversity seems wise, especially when considering that Americans desire to pay as little up front as possible coupled with the fact that Americas aren't always logical about their actual driving needs.
Thus, are too many automakers putting too many eggs in one basket when it comes to fuel economy, much as most automakers did with the SUVs?
I'm just glad we are finally getting more choices. This will allow companies to continue to innovate and improve our choices. Who knows where the technology will take us but at least we are trying now!
No doubt!
Dahc - I know you tend to think about the bottom line. What tax policies or government incentives can be enacted to make American consumers want to buy the Chevy Volt primarily because it reduces our (their) dependence on foreign oil more than the Prius?
Yes, Americans tend to be short sighted and will just revert to the lowest easily discernible monetary cost, which is a Prius with a lower sticker price. But what can we do so that all of the costs (loss of American jobs, huge trade deficit due largely due to oil importation, fighting wars to continue to secure that oil, etc.) are easily recognized by John Q. Public?
EI-
Well, in many ways, that is the big question. We need a complete change in America's auto culture. Of course, that is far easier said than done.
Still, in a perfect recultured America, a Volt might not make sense. Instead, pure EVs - probably only 100 mile range - would be more than adequate for most driving.
But that isn't really even scratching the surface.
Aside from powertrains, our vehicles should be much lighter. Ultimately, this issue needs to be about much more than powertrains, it's about size and weight. It's even about car-ownership.
Instead of a Volt for every city dweller for instance, much smaller vehicles - since most commuters are single occupants - is much more efficient. Still, instead of such a car, these people should be taking public transportation. Cities like London, Paris, and Seoul, for instance, aren't building new roads, they are turning roads into bike lanes, bus lanes, walking lanes and green space.
2 cars for every househould is unsustainable.
Still, in the short term the Prius is an important car. 50 mpg, and even better in urban driving, is quite a huge increase in fuel economy. if everyone in America were achieving 50 mpg today, i think we could end OPEC imports.
Inevitably, it's going to take decades to retool the American fleet, unless we're willing to convert to scooters! Thus, at today's pace, the focus can't just be EVs and PHEVs, it must include much cheaper vehicles, that are still efficient. A 50 mpg $20,000 hybrid is an important part of that mix today. That's why I really think Toyota has the right approach. Cheap hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs all sharing many common parts and technologies.
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