2011: The next gas crisis
$60 before gas falls below $40Boone Pickens was at it again today, pointing out that the US sent $13 billion to foreign countries for our foreign oil addiction in February - a month when US consumers are driving much less than in the past. Likewise, Pickens predicted $75 oil by the end of 2009, setting up an oil crisis similar to this past summer in 2011. (CNBC)
And from there, presumably, it only gets worse.
Labels: Foreign Oil Dependency, gas prices
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:39 AM
8 Comments:
Pickens makes some valid arguments. His plan to convert the big tracker trailers that use the majority of the gasoline / diesel to natural gas would be a great move. It would also cut demand for gasoline and put downward pressure on the price at the pump.
Mr. Pickens is almost right. They future is electric of some type. Battery, fuel cell but not natural gas. As solar cell tech. matures, it will grab a large market share to charge these batteries. Soon batteries will have enough power to move the big rigs. Just don't count on the volt as a blueprint for sucess. It is just marketing bullshit.
The Obama administration needs to set up a National Synfuel Corporation for the production of carbon neutral gasoline, methanol, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. And they also need to mandate that 5% of all gasoline, methanol, diesel fuel, and jet fuel in the US contain carbon neutral fuels by 2015 and 10% by 2020 in order to get this industry started.
There's enough urban biowaste (garbage and sewage)and rural biowaste in the US to supply at least 6% of our transportation fuel needs.
Using the Los Alamos labs 'Green Freedom' concept, a 1000 MWe nuclear power plant could produce an 18,000 barrels a day equivalent of gasoline or methanol. So you'd need about 600 reactors to supply all of our gasoline needs in the US. With EVs and PHEVs dominating the road, you'd probably need half the number of reactors (300?). And if you combine PHEV technology with methanol fuel cell technology, then you'd probably need even fewer reactors.
Marcel F. Williams
Gasoline from Air & Water
http://newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.com/2008/11/gasoline-from-air-and-water_24.html
anon-
in 2 years we'll have an energy crisis like this summer, as we emerge from a depression with the the tail of the US auto industry between its legs, and you're speaking about EVs and solar power?
who is going to buy them when most consumers will probably be broke, sitting in negative equity with no pension plan left? will the government be able to afford to subsidize both consumers and the US auto industry when gas prices top $4.00 per gallon as we roll out a cap-and-trade program?
while I'm a huge fan of those alternative technologies, it's going to take about a decade for those technologies to start having a serious impact - and even then it will probably still be pretty minimal.
even if we started selling nothing put pure EVs today, it would still take a good 12 years to upgrade the current fleet.
most of Obama's green energy spend doesn't even go into effect until the crisis will already be under way - if the prediction is correct, which I wouldn't doubt. pickens isn't the only one saying it.
i think we need more action today. right now. we need to think so far out of the box if we are going to be at all prepared.
push only the best of everything today. rethink urban transportation, such as creating bike and scooter lanes. greenlight more public transport, right now. force automakers into much smaller and lighter vehicles. bring the tata if GM can't do it.
if we wait for the EV and solar revolution to save us, it might be too late i worry.
that doesn't mean we shouldn't invest in those technologies, we should. i'd argue we should be investing more than obama is planning. it's just going to take time, time we just might not have.
we need to do more with the resources at hand, today, along with some very unconventional thinking. for instance, while the auto industry is waiting for US auto sales to hit at least 11.5 million units again, I say we should be celebrating LESS vehicles until we can make FAR more efficient vehicles.
Dahc...I agree with these points but if we were to drop demand 10 to 20%, the price of gasoline would not go up, it would probably drop like crazy. How much has demand dropped with the recession? 5% maybe...we don't need anything close to being 100% electric to keep gas at a reasonable price. I don't think anyone knows what future breakthroughs will happen with solar, wind or Synfuels but we need to start making changes sooner than later!
Well, that's because the world is in a recession, but it would only take a resurgence from China, which will happen, to again increase prices, despite what the US does.
Still, prices for fuel should be lower based on demand. OPEC simply isn't going to let this fall. And as long as things stay tight at the margins, higher prices are easy to fix.
I'm saying why take risks and why wait for super solutions? We can take effective baby steps now.
For example, even if you came up with a solar breakthrough, it wouldn't help Americans anytime soon as every recent solar program is being driven by the utility industry and a new smart, super grid - which doesn't even now exist and won't for many years..
For now, for instance, I'd love to see the government focus purely on distributed generation while the bigger picture is worked out.
Create incentives so that homeowners in the SouthWest could recover their solar investment in 5 years while paying little more than their regular utility bill.
It helps homeowners by adding a lot of value to their home, creates jobs, supports solar development and has an immediate impact on the environment and grid stability. It also supports plug-in development, including for the after-market.
Along those lines let consumers make their homes more efficient with a real nice tax credit. That, again, could create lots of small businesses for such a purpose - jobs all those out-of-work homebuilders would be perfect for.
Let's start taking action today, not just starting in 2011. That's all I'm saying. More important, I don't think it would be hard.
That's the kind of stimulus I'd like to see.
Everything right now, like Measure B in California, and many of Obama's programs, are all about grid generation which is going to take time to develop. Perhaps a lot of time.
Same is true with EVs.
I'm 100 percent for doing everything towards these ends, but I think we need to do even more right now, especially if another gas crisis is so near.
I heard a report earlier this morning that it won't take much longer and China will have more pave roads than the US. Chinese demand is set to explode and many other parts of Asia are not far behind.
Thus, the solution, in my opinion, can't be just waiting for solar and EVs. That will happen, I believe, but we need interim action right now.
Waiting, I believe, is taking a very serious risk. I hope I'm wrong and we have another decade or two before the crap really hits the fan, but I say why risk it?
I agree with Pickens!! Something needs to get done for the world to get of its addiction to foreign oil and Domestic Oil Companies that exploit hard working citizens! This is the time for the US to wake up and stop the Politics for once and get to work before the title of a super power slips away to another emerging country. I know its hard for politicians to let their political agenda aside but FOR ONCE, PLEASE work for the people and try to get the country of its inevitable spriral to bankrupcy by finding a way to utilize domestic energy supply, create local jobs and provide stability (financially and national security). So stop catering to those big oil companies that grease your pockets and for once, think of the well being of your country and your kids and grand kids and not yourself (although I can think of one who is so full of herself that she can't even begin to comprehend what this means)....
Pickens was spot on at $75 bbl.
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