Technology: Do the Big 3 have the right stuff?
Can this car save Chrysler?So, Big 3 automakers are at the Washington Auto Show trying to prove to the White House and Congress that they have the right technology to reduce foreign oil dependency and fight global warming?
But do they really?
Probably the most iconic example of next generation American auto technology is the Chevy Volt. Many, including this blogger, have called the Volt game-changing. However, I make that statement with one caveat: cost-effectiveness.
I have no doubts that the technology powering the Volt will be a success. I do, however, have some doubts that the Volt's technology can achieve cost-effectiveness and cost-competitiveness. In fact, I don't even think there is a chance of cost-efficiency without significantly higher fuel prices - probably much higher than what was experienced this past summer.
Moreover, perhaps the Volt is the wrong kind of technology for America's problems. Maybe more conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a plug-in Escape hybrid, aren't as technologically sophisticated, but they are simply more cost-effective. Or, just a better balance of upfront costs and long term fuel savings.
Today, there are just too many variables - too much uncertainty - to make predictions based on technology that not one automaker has yet sold in the real world. Besides, markets determine winners, not PR departments.
What is clear today, however, is that the Big 3 cannot cost-effectively compete at selling fuel efficient technology. So, why will the future be any different?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:24 AM
8 Comments:
Even if you can bring the Volt cost down to $30,000, which is probably impossible, I'd still take the Honda Insight for $20,000.
It's more money in my pocket now, plain and simple.
Don't worry.
Just let the UAW run Detroit and everything will be perfect. They're innovators!
Yeah. Don't get me started on the UAW.
Still, I always come back to cheap gas as being the root. Yet, there is no way America is ready for a gas tax.
That's why I say let's end foreign oil dependency.
Create massive tax incentives for for automakers to build nothing but hybrid cars, or vehicles that achieve at least 30 mpg on the EPA's city cycle - I don't care about highway fuel economy - in America immediately.
And let foreign automakers in as long as the cars are built in the US.
Then let the early bird eat the worm.
Incentivize creative competition.
Plus, is a Prius that is made in America really that much worse than a Volt made in America with an imported engine AND an imported battery?
I don't get it.
The volt battery is over $10,000 worth of the cost.
Why not reduce costs by building the same car with a smaller battery? Sure it won't the 40 miles without a charge, but it will run cleaner and get better mileage than today's hybrids.
Use "off the shelf" batteries!
Over time as battery technology improves and becomes less expensive, you can "upgrade" the battery. (How many of us had the Motorola "flip phone" then bought the upgraded battery?
This is not new technology!!! I saw a 1935 Westinghouse hybrid in Jay Leno's garage. Just like the volt, it ran off an electric motor wth batteries charged by a gasoline engine.
Why are the automakers so "unwilling" to make this car, and make it affordable?
I'm not sure that such a Volt would do better than the Prius at a similar cost to the Prius.
Nonetheless, there is no doubt that GM could make such a vehicle that could at least compete with the Prius. That, however, would have required a serious commitment to NiMH technology and GM has been very resistant to that technology.
Toyota has spent a ton of money developing its own supply chains to gather the materials to create larges sums of batteries.
Ultimately, I don't think GM, or most other automakers, are in a hurry to roll these vehicles out as there will be little profit in them for more than a decade without a massive increase in energy costs.
It's funny that GM is resistant to NiMH technology considering at one point they owned the patent on the large format NiMH battery used in the EV1, before selling that patent to Texaco.
As far as how a Volt with a smaller battery would perform? How much gas does it really take to charge a battery?
Well the technology was one thing. The supply chains for NiMH technology have never existed in the organized way that the auto industry is used to - and they still don't - which is why Toyota essentially had to become its own supplier for Nickel, copper, etc. for its battery operations.
RE: your second question
The series hybrid has been around a long time and GM did investigate the use of NiMH for the Volt. It didn't make sense, not as a series hybrid for a number of reasons.
The EV1, for example, had a range of a 100 - 150 miles before needing several hours to charge. Keywords - several hours.
The Volt, on the other hand, will be able to go many hundreds of miles without ever stopping, using the battery the entire time.
That's a far different requirement than what NiMH was required to achieve with a vehicle like the EV1, and it leads to less reliability, shorter lifespan, etc.
Still, in terms of fuel economy, when the lithium Volt is being powered by gasoline generated electricity only, GM expects it to achieve about 50 mpg, and that might be optimistic.
That puts it in line with today's hybrids.
Add NiMH and you'd have a heavier car with less energy storage.
NiMH is much more suitable for short range EVs and conventional hybrids.
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