Crude Awakenings on peak oil - Are we doomed?
"Oil is our God"Just finished watching A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash.
Black blood. Excrement of the Devil. Blood of the Earth. Whatever you want to call it, oil - and its cheap abundant energy - is the root of our technological civilization. It is the life blood of today's world.
However, thou giveth, thou taketh away.
Quite quickly peak oil could wipe out the civilization that cheap oil created, or at least that's the message of Crude Awakening.
Once oil is gone, it will be immensely difficult to replace. And, even if it can be replaced, the replacement will almost certainly cost much more than oil, much more than $3.00 per gallon - MUCH more. Yet, today, there is no real world solution to cost-effectively replacing oil that has been proven technologically feasible.
Moreover, there is little hope of politicians - anywhere in the world - taking the lead on this issue according to experts in the film. Quite simply, the truth is too hard to swallow, but if peak oil is real and near, today's economic crisis will be the last good times most of us ever see.
Ultimately, America needs less cars, much more public transportation, efficiency at all levels, and a huge gas tax to wake Americans up to the reality of the future. The days of cheap energy are over or soon to be over. The sooner that is accepted the better the chances of surviving this imminent catastrophe.
How bad could it get? Worse than you can imagine.
How about the end of the airline industry, for instance? I mean you'll NEVER fly anywhere again. And that isn't even the extreme end. Without oil's cheap energy, the planet is incapable of supporting more than a couple billion people, at best, which means the majority of the people in the world would need to die.
No political issue today in America should be more important than ending foreign oil dependency, as a start. We cannot move fast enough towards efficiency and towards alternative energy.
Sure President Obama is taking more steps than George Bush, but they are baby steps, and without a few giant leaps, the game might already be over.
Labels: Foreign Oil Dependency
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:03 AM
28 Comments:
It's scary how many people are either ignorant or in denial about this. While some go to extremes to explain the impact of peak oil and climate change, they are realities that we have to deal with. How can we hope to bring this reality to people's attention when they can't even understand the drop-in-the-bucket sense of hybrids.
Everyone should see that documentary. Most people don't have the stomach for that much reality and what it means to their world. Unfortunately, I have to agree with you in that we have seen the best of times, especially if that joy is tied to petro-motoring.
A single 1000 MWe nuclear reactor could produce an 18,000 barrel a day equivalent of gasoline. A thousand such reactors could probably supply all of our gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel needs. Although, combined with plug-in-hybrids, you would probably need only 700 nuclear reactors.
Marcel F. Williams
http://newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.com/1999/01/synfuels-and-price-of-oil.html
We'll damage our environment well before we run out of crude.
Marcel,
There isn't enough uranium, according to experts in the movie, to sustain nuclear power as a replacement to oil. Likewise, nuclear power is very expensive up front to develop.
Nuclear could serve as a bridge, again, according to the experts, but it wouldn't last very long and it would be extremely expensive to develop.
And, that doesn't even cover the costs of maintaining and securing enough nuclear waste to power the world.
Dahc - Who are you writing this for - the chicken little the sky is falling crowd? This is a bunch of arm waving. The cost of alternative energy such as wind and solar has been doing nothing but declining steadily over the last several decades. To say the cost from such alternative sources is suddenly going to start skyrocketing just as it is poised to really take off in terms of market share is not realistic.
Energy Independence-
I'd suggest watching the movie. They cover every alternative. They also get into some pretty interesting OPEC facts that are pretty scary when it comes to peak oil.
If we've hit peak oil, or hit it soon, there is no way that solar production could be ramped up in time. Not even close.
Furthermore, solar would cost much more than oil for a very long time if solar had to quickly replace oil for the majority of US energy needs.
Even if you just doubled the cost of all energy used for vehicles, homes, etc. today, permanently, you don't think it would have a huge impact on the US economy?
In theory, the experts believe that solar does offer the best long term potential. However, from a technological and manufacturing perspective, the experts claim much is left to be proven. In the history of solar, the world has only produced a miniscule fraction of the amount of solar production that would be required.
Again, it comes down to preparedness and when peak oil hits.
The downward slope of Hubbert's peak can be very steep. It was in the case of American oil production.
If OPEC countries hit peak oil and a steep downward slope on the way down, no country could react quick enough based on today's use of alternative energy.
More important, the quick and dramatic rise in oil prices, many of the experts believed, would lead to oil wars.
Considering the state of oil today, I find that pretty believable.
Call me an alarmist. I don't care. If we're anywhere near peak oil, then we are totally unprepared and life will get ugly. Considering the number of experts, even oil men, that are worried about this issue, I think a little alarmism is important.
I honestly don't think peak oil is the problem. We are going to face grave environmental problems well before we hit peak oil or run out.
That should be the driving reason for change...not peak oil.
There is a growing number of experts, from prestigious universities, ex Bush oil policy advisers, etc. whom think we could hit peak oil within the next 10 years - as the world's demand for energy increases significantly.
The potential, according to Hubbert's research indicates that the decline of oil could be extremely fast. In just a few years oil production could drop by 20, 30 even 50 percent - in just a few years.
If the world had 5 years to prepare for this, just as demand for energy was increasing at its fastest pace ever, you don't think there would be a few serious problems?
Despite strong evidence, Congress didn't see the real estate crash coming. This summer Detroit didn't see the gas spike coming.
We keep our heads in the sand until the flood rolls us over. It's our nature and its why empires never last.
I have to disagree with this Dahc.
Congress did see it coming...and these people knew what was going on. If they didn't, they are extremely stupid at best. This was allowed to happen. It's a transference of wealth.
I don't think we are running out of oil. I think we are destroying ourselves because of the use of oil. We will pay the price environmentally far sooner than run out of oil.
I think oil firms have some of these variables figured into their business plans as changes happen. But frankly, I don't think they fully realize what they are in store for.
Dahc - "... in the next 10 years." ???
The sources I trust say we hit Peak Oil in 2006! Don't kid yourself. Its already too late.
Noz' point about the environment may be true, but I don't want to get caught up in semantics. Pick your poison, either way we're screwed since we can't even get the general public to take either very seriously. But I suppose the economic meltdown happening at a crossroads of environmental insustainability and energy crisis is a coincidence?! Sorry for preaching to the choir.
I've bought my last car. Sorry Detroit. Time to stake a plot of land and do some home gardening ...
Noz-
I'd say its stupidity or denial, in terms of Congress.
KP-
I'm going into this again in my next post, which i'm minutes from posting, and i'm posting a graph that shows about 2006 as the peak.
Two of my neighbors are executives in the Houston offshore oil industry. Peak oil is coming down the pike, but it is not here yet, and at least from their perspective, it will not be a catastrophic event. The price will simply continue to rise over time until other energy sources eventually begin to dominate.
Yes there will be market-driven and event-driven perturbations that swing the price quite a bit, but just like this last swing, the pendulum eventually swings the other way.
"Crude Awakening" may help a bit in the shit to alternatives by employing the fear-factor to motivate some folks to embrace change, so I guess from that perspective that is good.
But here it Texas where virtually all of our electrical energy comes from natural gas and coal, I see the switch to an electric power driven economy as doable over the next 20 years. Just this year, the city has started to install smart metering technology and it expected to be in place across the entire greater Houston area in the next five years.
well, if you believe that oil has peaked - as many peak pundits believe - we honestly don't have even 10 years. in about 5 years, oil production will begin to drop very significantly. yet, at the same time - if the world begins to recover from this recession - demand will be at all time highs.
i think you'd quickly see much higher gas prices than this summer quickly followed by gas lines. quite quickly gas would probably become too expensive to buy for most.
while i'm not arguing this will happen, i think the potential is there. also, much of when we hit peak oil is dependent upon Saudi Arabia - a country with plenty of reasons to hide the truth.
even if its not that bad, i still worry that this is the kind of environment that leads to war, and that probably worries me more than anything.
I fully expect that improvements in drilling technology will allow much deeper and cheaper wells to be drilled. Huge oil and gas reserves will be discovered. People are so stupid they will use it. The world would be a much better place if peak oil had been reached 100 years ago. Solar energy and other renewables are fully capable of meeting 100% of our energy needs.
When you think about the massive demand that is just beginning to brew in Asia, I don't think that oil is sustainable. We might have an extra decade or two before it turns into a crisis, but...
The hysteria caused by people(sheeple) that get their information from the movies is astounding. There is no such thing as "peak oil", and $148/bbl oil is not reality-based either.
The sooner we recognize the crooks & politicans among us, and deal with them, there will be much more time available to make this planet a better place.
so caltech professors are idiots?
most energy traders are idiots?
perhaps we should have everyone that trades energy on Wall Street hanged because the far majority of them disagree with you completely, which means they must all, therefore, be complicit in the conspiracy.
Bostol.Eclipse.
There is such a thing as peak oil...we will be affected by climate change before we are affected by peak oil.
The rate of change of the planet's climate is far outpacing the rate at which we will run out.
Signed:
JPL/Caltech Engineer.
noz-
That's very plausible, but debatable.
I was reading a little about Kenneth Verosub, a professor of geology at the University of California, Davis, whom recently put peak oil at 2016.
My larger point is: peak oil, global warming, foreign oil dependency, the decline of American auto innovation - how many more reasons do we need to make a big change?
You don't have to believe in all of the above, just one, to realize that things need to change. Efficiency must be embraced, etc., etc.
The scary thing about oil is that supplies of oil are essentially company secrets and there are a lot of OPEC rules that encourage OPEC member to inflate their numbers.
Ultimately, I bet OPEC really isn't concerned about peak oil. Hitting it before consumers are prepared is in their advantage. It's one last shot at extreme profits.
Peak production - interms of pumping, refining, etc. - is also an issue. That's how energy traders look at the market. That number, many traders believe, was hit last year and has been predicted to be an issue by 2011.
Dahc,
I'm not justifying continued use of oil just because we won't run out of it. On the contrary.
I wish we could stop its use tomorrow.
But the amount of oil in the ground is far more abundant than what we can even extract. Most oil deposits become extremely difficult to extract once the level of oil in the deposits has been reduced by half.
This may as well be looked upon as being like we are running out of oil because practically speaking, it'd be too expensive and technically impossible to extract anymore.
But regardless....the climate will do its thing before we get to that point.
I'd say the biggest threat to this planet and life here is overpopulation. There are simply too many human beings on this planet. Pure and simple.
noz-
I wasn't making that argument to you. I know where you stand. I was just using your post to clarify my position.
You and I may not agree on everything, but on the big issues you and I are on the same team without any doubt.
If the earth were made entirely of coal, oil and gas, how much of it would we burn? There may be more than one way to be doomed.
Peak oil does NOT equal doom.
First of all, the idea that oil = food is bunk.
The reason we use fossil fuels (hint: natgas, NOT OIL) for fertilizer is that it's cheaper than the other way (not the ONLY WAY). In the early part of the 20th century the bulk of fertilizer was made from AIR and ELECTRICITY.
Pardon me if I say it but electricity doesn't NEED OIL to be made.
Next: No substitutes huh?
Plastic Bag -> Paper Bags or cardboard boxes
Oil for Heating? Try Electric.
Aviation fuel? Try biofuels.
Long distance trade? Try electric trains or hell, how about SAILING SHIPS? Fuel cells also work a lot better at large scale than at smaller scale and the refueling infrastructure problem would be much less.
Long distance trucking? There are currently no electric 18 wheelers but there ARE 14 ton half size trucks with a range of 150 miles and top speed of 50 miles per hour. I guess we could use two trucks instead of one and do the long haul via rail-freight.
Liquid Fuels? Well, since electric vehicles are 4X as efficient as oil powered ones we need to build 1/4 the amount of electrical generating capacity as the equivalent in energy from oil.
Doable? Well even if we discard all of the off peak power (and we shouldn't because we could power 80 some million daily commutes from off peak power alone) then to power all vehicles in the North American fleet off of electricity would require 50% again new build.
How long to build that?
Well we're increasing the size of the grid 2% per year with renewables ALONE. We're increasing consumptin by 1% per year. At 1% growth rate that will take 50 years to add enough renewables.
That, however, is assuming no change from the population.
Me personally? If gas prices go back up to $4 a gallon I will take the bus.
So in short: Peak Oil?
Hit the Snooze button.
DB
DB - The idea of peak oil is that it will happen faster than expected. When it happened in American it happened in drastic fashion. Lack of preparedness would probably lead to wars. Is that really so hard to comprehend? I mean, hello, Iraq?
Also, I think you're significantly underestimating the cheapness of oil compared to all other options. SIGNIFICANTLY.
It's not that there aren't replacements, it's the costs of those replacements and how fast they can be implemented.
Finally, electric-demand is set for possible huge increases in demand. The digital revolution is only just beginning. Moreover, there is some interesting social research going on that suggests that in the very near future, 3rd shift could become as important as 1st shift. Thus, nightime demand could become as significant as daytime demand.
Also, in 50 years, what will the population of the world be?
In a perfect world, such as yours, do monkeys fly out of your ass?
I rented "A Crude Awakening" from NETFLIX. It's a good movie that debunks a lot of alternative energy solutions. I disagree with the movie on two points, however. On nuclear power plants, the French have a Fast Breeder reactor, that makes 5% more fuel than it uses, by breeding Thorium 239 into Plutonium 239. Also, ethanol can be made from syngas by running any carbon-based feedstock (garbage or landfill) though a plasma torch at 1500F. Bacteria converts sygas into ethanol, and no plants need be raised for fuel. Google "Coskata" to see a video. They are bringing a 40,000 gallon per year pilot plant online in Madison, PA this month.
the nuclear angle that has always worried me is proliferation into areas with less security, etc.
If the US moves aggressively towards nuclear power, then how do we stop Iran, for instance? and Iran might not really be that dangerous of a situation compared to many other countries.
still, maybe we don't have a choice.
after reading about solar inactivity and scientists saying that global warming may take a 30 year break and they dont understand why.oil deposits in the 4 corner states area.all of this global warming if any since the temp has flatlined for the last 9 years.is nothing more than a way for the government to pass more restrictive laws and raise prices on everything we comsume by taxing it.we should use all forms of energy nuclear ,wind ,solar,and drilling our own oil.ELECTIC rechargeable cars will only use electric that is MOSTLY MADE WITH COAL!go live in a cave and ride a bike i will drive my big truck and haul firewood for heating my home!!!its better for the environment.next you will find someone to lie about that look it up
i know you wont post this but it felt good to write it.look up everything i typed i dare you to l
OH YEA THE OIL COMPANIES KNOW A LOT MORE THAN YOU PRETEND TO OTHERWISE THEY WOULDNT SPEND THE MONEY THEY DO.ITS THE ONLY BUSINESS IN OUR AREA STILL EMPLOYING PEOPLE AT FULL FORCE
ANON:
ANd where do you plan to work when you've polluted your area beyond repair? Or cut down trees beyond replanting?
Are you that freaking dumb to realize that what you do is tied to what is around you?
Or is your ego so big that you think you are on a God complex?
Get a grip you moron....wtf is wrong with people like you? Do you have something against a cleaner, healthier, more prosperous environment?
Perhaps YOU like to sit in your feces....but most of us don't.
So if you want to live the way you think you have a right to, get lost and go to another planet.
The only thing I can wish for is if and when changes in global climate and environments really take affect, that douchebags like you and your family get hit the hardest.
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