Climbing Hubbert's Peak in a Prius

Could it be true?

I remember several years ago, when I covered Southern California real estate on the side, how a number of experts warned that a real estate bust was looming. 20, 40 even 50 percent declines in real estate values were predicted several years before the current crisis hit.

A few years ago I rushed to put some real estate on the market in anticipation of this crash. Ironically, that was the same time many major pension funds were rushing to increase their exposure to real estate, and when mortgage brokers and bankers were doing some of their most scandalous work.

Yet, apparently, nobody in Washington, including Congresses headed by both Republicans and Democrats, and their numerous horde of aides and research assistants, ever heard a whisper of this bubble talk.

Likewise, today, nobody in Washington ever mentions the topic of peak oil. Foreign oil dependency is a good sound bite at best. Apparently, Washington firmly believes there is an extremely adequate supply of oil for the World, well, at least for America, for many more years. The Saudi Royal Family has given us their word.

Plus, there is always plenty of tar sand. Or maybe we'll get lucky in the Arctic - if global warming pans out and after we defeat the Russians for the rights.

However, while not popular in Washington, the number of experts starting to talk about peak oil is growing. The End of Oil and the Hydrogen Economy were two of my early favorites that covered this subject. Recently, I really enjoyed ZOOM. And the other day I watched A Crude Awakening, a documentary on Peak Oil that includes interviews with a wide array of experts from academia to policy (Graph link).

While all Peak pundits hope beyond hope that their peak predictions are wrong, they all believe that peak oil could be very, very near - as within the next decade. Or maybe its already happened.

And, the downside of Hubbert's Peak - the speed at which oil production can decline - is far, far, far faster than America or the world can react. Will we be prepared?