Should Obama save the Big 3 at any cost?
25,000 per year for years nowLast night I was watching an interesting NOVA program called The Big Energy Gamble and how AB 32 is going to drastically change the auto market in California. Essentially, if California moves forward with AB 32, automakers will need to sell many millions of hybrid cars or EVs in California alone, in order to meet CO2 emissions requirements.
And, there are many states considering similar laws if California's continues to move forward.
Toyota, the king of hybrid cars, is well on its way to helping California meet its goals, and Honda is ramping up its hybrid production as well, although even Honda has some serious work ahead.
The Big 3, on the other hand, seem pathetically far behind. Possibly, Ford has some plans, but as the automaker has only been able to make 25,000 Escape hybrids per year, and has the same 25,000 cap for the Fusion hybrid, I have some serious worries. Sadly, GM and Chrysler seem even further behind.
Yet, as the bailout deadline approaches, the UAW is already calling on Obama for help. If this were the end of all bailout talk, a little extension wouldn't be a bad idea, but this is just the beginning.
GM's latest prediction for 2009 auto sales, for example, is even worse than 2008. According to Big 3 Congressional bailout testimony, GM's prediction for 2009 is unsustainable if it continues for a few years, regardless of any bailout money. UNSUSTAINABLE. The auto industry, as we know it today, would collapse.
Even if things get better, the Big 3 are still in no position to make a serious stab at fuel economy, especially if the requirement is as aggressive as AB32 - something Obama has supported. According to an economist from Moody's during Congressional testimony on the bailout, the US auto industry will need about 100 billion over the next few years just to survive.
How much more it take to make the Big 3 green?
Not one of the Big 3 has yet developed a cheap hybrid to challenge the Prius. Do they really believe that millions of Americans are going to be able to afford $40,000 Volts in five years? Will GM even be making 100,000 Volts per year by then?
President Obama's plans for an energy moon shot should move forward, and I'm sure it will, but should our moon shot be limited to the Big 3's ability to make it happen? Might it not be better, for instance, for the government to regulate standards and requirements, put all incentives in the hands of consumers, and let ALL automakers COMPETE for consumers, even if it means the UAW loses 1/2 its workforce because its products don't compete?
Or, should Obama save the Big 3 at any and all costs and make the Big 3 essential to our moon shot?
Labels: barack obama, Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Hybrid Vehicles, toyota, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:22 AM
6 Comments:
If Obama makes the energy moonshot dependent upon the Big 3, then we've already failed.
Many consumers have been buying Honda's small cars and Toyota's hybrids because the Big 3 didn't offer any competing products. Contrary to their excuses, there was and has been a market for such vehicles.
To now wait for them to catch up to their competitors is a complete joke. Our moon shot must be independent of the Big 3.
Survival of the fittest. Besides, Chrsyler's loss, for instance, could be Tesla's gain - that should be a possibility if this moon shot is to succeed.
If we baby the Big 3 along, we can expect more of the crap the Big 3 have perfected providing for decades.
Tough love or no love.
I really don't know anymore.
I guess I'd like to let the Big 3, as we know them today, die. But I'd like to see initiatives that take the factories and UAW workers and turn them into other things, like nuclear plants or wind turbine manufacturing or batteries, or whatever else makes sense. Then give companies like Tesla/AC Propulsion/Fisker/Aptera, etc. a shot in the arm. Maybe form a new company built around the Volt team. Another around some kernel of Ford. I don't know what's worth salvaging from Chrysler. The cultural difference is staggering though: these guys are hungry for success, where all I keep seeing from Big 3 are excuses and assigning blame. They need a serious shock to their system to change their culture. Necessity is the mother of invention.
oh yeah: and some form of universal health care not tied to employment so that we can remain competitive on the world stage.
oh yeah, also: post-sputnik style science/engineering education program so we retain our best and brightest. And green cards stapled to engineering degrees for foreign nationals to bring a new wave of "German rocket scientists" (though they'll be from all over this time) to come and throw their lot in in the US of A.
Otherwise it looks to me like Americans getting their clocks cleaned for decades to come.
We need to utilize everything in out power to reduce our dependence on foreign oil including using our own natural resources.OPEC will continue to cut production until they achieve their desired 80-100. per barrel. The high cost of fuel this past year seriously damaged our economy and society. Oil is finite. We are using oil globally at the rate of 2X faster than new oil is being discovered. China and India will put an estimated additional 3 million vehicles on their highways by 2010 further depleting the supply. We need to take some of these billions in bail out bucks and bail ourselves out of our dependence on foreign oil.It would cost the equivalent of 60 cents a gallon to charge and drive an electric car. The electricity to charge the car could come from solar or wind generated electricity. If all gasoline cars, trucks, and suv’s instead had plug-in electric drive trains, the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota Jeff Wilson has a really good new book out called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence Now. He explores our uses of oil besides gasoline, our depletion, out reserves and stores as well as viable options to replace oil.Oil is finite, it will run out in the not too distant future. WE need to take some of these billions in bail out bucks and bail America out of it's dependence on foreign oil. The historic high price of gas this past year did serious damage to our economy and society. WE should never allow others to have that much power over our economy again. I wish every member of congress would read this book too.
www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com
It's time for America to take what remains of the big three back from the UAW. People are not buying these cars, not because they aren't any good, but because they are perceived as a mechanism to extort unrealistic wages from the car-buying public, few of whom have paychecks that are even close to what the typical UAW member receives. The UAW does not speak for working people. It speaks only for it's own membership, which has become an elite club of pampered, overpaid workers who most likely don't really care whether their employers survive or not. Why should they care? They already have their money, and can retire in comfort at any time. We need a unified workforce. Either everybody should be a union member or nobody should. I believe most working people resent the existence of a union that has sucked the auto industry dry for decades and kept it from expanding and hiring new employees. They are voting against the UAW by buying non-union brands.
I would gladly buy a new car, but I need a job to pay for it. I've been laid off for 4 months. If the big 3 want people to buy cars, then America needs to get working again.
Indigo Incarnates
I think Chrysler needs to go out of business. GM needs to shrink down to about 10% its current size, since the Volt is nothing but hype and all GM *really* cares about is selling $80k guzzler-hulks. It does look like Ford is *finally* getting the idea that innovating is a good thing.
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