Plug-ins: Much ado about fuel economy credits?

Tesla hoping to sell its CAFE credits

Foreign oil dependency is choking America, literally, to death. Thus, I've advocated for hybrid cars, even when they don't make financial sense. It's an investment in the future and next generation technologies, such as plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Fortunately, these days, every automaker is planning some kind of plug-in, and that's a good thing. Yet, I worry.

In recent weeks, the EPA designation of plug-ins has become an important issue. Plug-in vehicles, like the flex-fuel credits of today, will provide important fuel economy credits for automakers, as flex fuel credits expire.

So, if GM only sells 60,000 Chevy Volts in 2013, those Volts will provide a significant number of fuel economy credits for GM's less efficient vehicles. Today, just a few flex fuel credits per vehicle enable automakers to, essentially, violate CAFE without penalty.

Thus, despite good intentions, flex fuel credits have increased US foreign oil dependency. And, particularly if gas prices decline a few quarters over the next few years, it seems plug-in credits could do the same. Is it time to end all fuel economy loopholes, I mean credits?

$50.00 oil or $200.00 oil?

Would $50.00 oil kill the Volt?

Despite gas lines popping up in many Southeast US cities, Donald Trump believes that oil prices could drop as low as $20 per barrel very soon. I was running some errands yesterday and overheard Trump on one of the business stations claim that gas prices - the lifeblood of the US economy according to Trump - were set for a huge decline. While Trump did cite speculation, he focused all his blame on OPEC.

2010: Hyundai hybrids finally come to US

Will be Hyundai's first full hybrid

In 2010, Hyundai will finally begin selling hybrid cars in the US. The Hyundai Sonata is scheduled to be the first hybrid to hit US shores.

More interesting, Hyundai plans to sell the Sonata hybrid as a lithium-powered hybrid vehicle that should increase fuel economy by 70 percent. LG Chem will provide the batteries.

Hyundai plans to sell 50,000 Sonata hybrids in the first year, but the automaker wants to quickly ramp up hybrid production to 500,000 hybrids - including other hybrid models - per year by 2018 according to AutoWeek.

Automaker bailout goes to President

Chevy Volt and EV1 at Alt Car Expo

Both the House and the Senate have signed off on a bill to give $25 billion to automakers to help make more fuel efficient vehicles. And, I'm OK with that. This is about jobs at a time when jobs are desperately needed.

Still, this isn't just a loan, it is a bailout. Tax payers ARE putting up $7.5 billion to secure these loans. Besides, despite new CAFE regulations, the markets are DEMANDING the Big 3 move towards efficiency. The Big 3 have no choice but to change, something that should have been obvious after 9/11 and Katrina.

Let's hope they get it right this time.

Plug-in Ratings: Both Congress and the EPA confused

What's the value of plugging in?

When tax credits for plug-ins become available, neither electric range nor fuel economy will matter, only battery capacity - a move that appears to strongly favor GM's Chevy Volt versus the Toyota Prius.

However, when it comes to the EPA and CAFE, it's fuel economy that will matter. And that is the standard that Congress will judge automaker fleet fuel economy.

So why the double standard? Shouldn't there be just one way to judge plug-ins?

Dan Foley, of the Automotive X-Prize has been suggesting MPGe as a better rating "MPGe is a measure that expresses fuel economy in terms of the energy content of a gallon of gasoline, asking how much energy was delivered to the vehicle, and how far did it go."

We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?

Honda has it right?

Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?

For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.

Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?

Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?

15 percent by 2035: The reality of plug-in hybrids

How long before all of us drive something like the Volt?

All day long I've been working on a story that I titled 'Fool's Gold: The electrification of the automobile', that I just haven't been able to finish. Now before EV fans go crazy, I'm not arguing against electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles. I'm arguing the reason for these vehicles is to get off oil, especially foreign oil, and to reduce our carbon footprint.

Thus, in my opinion, conventional hybrid cars, for the next decade or two, are every bit as important as plug-ins if we want to act as quickly as possible to achieve this change. Waiting until all of us drive an EV or PHEV is simply fool's gold.

As I was taking a break from rereading my draft - yes, I actually edit my posts sometimes, sometimes - the folks over at Yale Environment 360 sent me an e-mail with a link to the one of their posts, Revenge of the Electric Car.

There isn't much in this piece that hasn't been covered by this blog. Nonetheless, it is a very nice summary of the state of electric cars and other plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, one quote really stuck out.

“It’s hard to overestimate the inertia of the old system, and how resistant many people are to change,” says Tom Turrentine, head of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California at Davis. A recent MIT study on the future of the car suggested plug-in vehicles might capture, at best, 15 percent of the light-duty vehicle market (passenger cars and SUVs) by 2035.

New plant - Volt hype crushes Cruze

Can't get no respect

Today GM announced that it would invest $370 million in a new engine plant in Flint, MI to build engines for the Chevy Cruze and the Chevy Volt. Of course, you wouldn't have known the Cruze engine was also being built at this plant if you only read many of the headlines covering this story. For example, it took 6 paragraphs for the DetroitNews to even mention the Cruze. Ironically, however, the plant will probably be making many more Cruze engines than Volt engines for many years.

Toyota Prius - How would you change it?

Multiple Prius derivatives inevitable

Some day soon, Toyota will begin rolling out new hybrid cars, a bit different than the current Prius, but that will also utilize the Prius name plate, such as a larger crossover Prius, or a smaller city Prius. Shoot. Maybe a convertible Prius, or a two seat, sporty Prius. And, of course, a plug-in Prius.

Setting aside plug-in functionality, if it was your task to develop a new Prius derivative, what kind of car would you craft? For me its always been a small as possible city car, a Prius that would challenge the Smart Car in terms of size, but with more than twice the fuel economy. What about you?

Kia to bring hybrid Soul to Paris

The hybrid is only a concept though

At the Paris Motor Show Kia will debut the Soul hybrid concept, according to AutoWeek. A front wheel drive compact modified off the Rio platform, the Soul hybrid offers a 1.6 liter engine and a 15 kw electric motor that takes advantage of regenerative braking and start/stop technologies.

Not many more details about this concept or the possibility of this concept becoming a reality. Likewise no word on when Kia will offer hybrid cars for the US market.

Automaker loans easily pass through House

Hopefully its used to develop plug-in hybrids like this Escape plug-in hybrid at NAIAS

Don't call it a bailout, but the House of Representatives has passed a bill that includes $25 billion in loans for US automakers, and the bill is expected to easily pass through the Senate. Still, even though its not a bailout, it will cost US tax payers $7.5 billion to fund these loans.

Hopefully, the language in this bill remains tough, particularly that language requiring the loans be used only on projects that achieve at least a 25 percent increase in fuel economy - a standard automakers were fighting to lower.

If it stays at 25 percent, I won't call it a bailout. If automakers successfully lobbied Congress to reduce this requirement, however, then how can you call it anything but a bailout?

$7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Only about battery capacity, not actual EV range, nor real world fuel economy?

The Senate has passed a new tax bill that will provide tax credits for plug-in hybrid vehicles ranging from $2,500 - $7,500, depending on the vehicle's battery capacity. To be eligible for the credit, such plug-in vehicles must store at least 6 kWh's of electricity.

So, battery capacity, not actual EV range nor real world fuel economy, is how Congress judges plug-in quality? Does that really make sense?

Finish: $7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Toyota Camry natural gas hybrid in works

Fill this hybrid up with natural gas

Toyota plans to debut a Toyota Camry hybrid concept at the LA Auto Show that uses natural gas rather than gasoline according to reports coming out of a Toyota Conference in Oregon. Toyota doesn't have concrete plans to build natural gas hybrid vehicles yet, but if US interest in natural gas continues to increase, Toyota would then consider developing such hybrids.

BMW joins the lithium mild hybrid game

The BMW 7 Series ActiveHybrid

BMW will debut the new 7 Series ActiveHybrid at the Paris Auto Show next week, a vehicle that was developed out of a joint venture with Mercedes Benz and the S400 hybrid. However, while much of the hybrid technology is the same, the gasoline engines and gearboxes are quite different according to Edmunds.

Yes, this is another luxury hybrid that most of us will never consider purchasing, but it is also another example of the growing interest in lithium-powered mild hybrid powertrains. And, soon, such lithium powertrains will make their way into much cheaper hybrid vehicles. Is that not progress?

Chrysler to plug-in into the future in 2010

A wrangler plug-in vehicle

Behind the Wheel has a great piece this morning on Chrysler's new plug-in vehicles. Yesterday, Phil LeBeau was able to drive a couple of Chrysler plug-in prototypes, such as the Jeep Wrangler plug-in hybrid that functions very much like GM's Chevy Volt. LeBeau was also able to test drive the Dodge EV sports car, an all electric vehicle that left LeBeau impressed.

Even more surprising, Chrysler intends to roll out some of these vehicles by 2010.

Check it out. There is supposed to be a link to view all these test drives, but it wasn't working when I made this post.

Automaker loans sneaking through Congress

Big 3 to get a little help?

With the Wall Street bailout providing cover, the $25 billion dollar loan package for automakers is gaining momentum. Nonetheless, legislation coming out of Congress, including these loans and many other programs, is said to be filled with many billions in earmarks that could force the President to exercise his veto powers.

Nevertheless, at least compared to the hundreds of billions, minimally, needed to bail out Wall Street, $25 billion for automakers is chump change. Sadly, however, the real question might be, is $25 billion nearly enough to save the Big 3?

Toyota A-BAT hybrid pickup closer to reality

Up to suppliers now?

Back in January Toyota showed off the A-BAT hybrid pickup truck at the Detroit Auto Show, and it was received quite well. Thus, Toyota has now asked suppliers to bid on making parts for the truck, and if those bids come back as cost-effective, the A-BAT hybrid could get the greenlight to go from concept to reality, according to AutoWeek.

A short Toyota hybrid vehicle shopping trip

Customers back in control?

Thanks to a killer headache on Friday, I decided to call it a day early and take care of a few errands. Since those errands took me close to a local Toyota dealership, I decided to shop some hybrid cars.

Are there still dealer markups on the Prius or Camry hybrid?

Finish: A short Toyota hybrid vehicle shopping trip

Honda Insight - Can it live up to the hype?

Too little too late?

Sure, it looks sort of like the Toyota Prius, yet the Insight's design lines are still a bit more sleek and refined than the Prius. But consumers don't buy the Prius for its looks - or do they - they buy it for its fuel economy, right? How will the Honda Insight compare?

Without a major hybrid powertrain upgrade, it seems far-fetched to believe the Insight will beat the Prius in city fuel economy, but if the Insight pummels the Prius on the highway, will that give the Insight an edge?

Or, is it purely price that will give the Insight a chance against the Prius? Will Honda really sell these new hybrid cars for less than $20,000? What do you expect from the Insight?

Chrysler to update dealers on plug-ins

The Dodge Zeo - One of three plug-in concepts Chrysler showed in Detroit

Next week, according to reports, Chrysler will provide dealers with "insight into business strategies" for the future that includes Chrysler's next generation plug-in hybrid vehicles. No further details are available.

While interesting, it seems hard to believe that Chrysler could be anywhere close to where GM is today with such electric vehicles, which means many more years for Chrysler to even catch up to GM.

Bob Lutz ready to say goodbye to Volt 'mali-mules'

Lutz originally wanted the Volt to be a pure electric vehicle

On Tuesday I was part of a group interview with Bob Lutz whom told reporters that originally he wanted the Chevy Volt to be a pure electric vehicle. However, John Lauckner, GM vice president of global program management, convinced Lutz that a range extended vehicle would be far better as it would overcome "range anxiety", which Lauckner believed would limit the success of the Volt.

Lutz also reiterated that he greatly dislikes the design of the Toyota Prius calling it "reverse chic" - so ugly that it has become cool.

More interesting, however, Lutz expressed his surprise that so many still doubt lithium's reliability. Lutz stated that tests are indicating that the Volt's battery pack could be far more reliable than originally expected, mitigating potential warranty costs to GM.

Finally, the mali-mule - the original Volt test vehicles - are soon to be replaced. By the end of the year GM hopes to have about 50 Cruze-mules that will be outfitted with far more E Flex electric drive components.

The $10,000 hybrid vehicle

Would you buy it?

A few days ago I had a conversation with an ex Tata Motors employee. In his opinion, Tata is now very close to having products ready for the American market. While they will probably be the cheapest autos available in America, they'll probably also look and feel like the cheapest cars in America.

Nonetheless, if an automaker such as Tata began selling $10,000 hybrid cars that could achieve 60 + mpg in both the city and on the highway, offered reasonable safety, but not much else, would you be a buyer?

Saab BioHybrid Air - Looking better than ever

Time to build it

The Saab 9-X Air Biohybrid is the latest iteration of the the 9-X Biohybrid concept.

"Featuring a unique Canopy Top and a wraparound glasshouse that includes the rear screen, the 9-X Air breaks the mould of conventional convertible design by offering four-seat accommodation within the close-coupled proportions of a sports car."

But the best thing about the Biohybrid is what powers it, a 1.4 liter turbo-charged, E85 bioethanol engine mated to a hybrid powertrain. This was a great concept before the Air and now its an even better concept. I guess the only reason they don't build it is because E85 isn't available in the right markets for this car?

Mercedes S400: Mild hybrids are worthy?

Coming to America next September

Slowly, but surely, most automakers are rolling out hybrid vehicles. One of the first from Mercedes, the S400 hybrid, is a lithium-powered mild hybrid. This hybrid cannot function on electric power at low speeds, however, it will increase average fuel economy from 23 mpg to just under 30 - almost a 7 mpg improvement.

In late 2010, GM plans to add lithium to their mild hybrid BAS system as well, and 20 to 30 percent improvements in fuel economy are expected.

Would a full hybrid powertrain with lithium provide even greater fuel economy? Yes, but at higher costs. Still, lithium-powered mild hybrids can provide nice increases in fuel economy at justifiable costs. Hence, are mild hybrids now worthy?

Financial terrorism and automaker loans

Did terrorists help bring down the financial markets?

There are now a few people that monitor Wall Street wondering if some short sellers weren't trying to help take down the US stock market with unscrupulous short selling. Already, new restrictions are coming into play because of known abuses.

So, for a mid-day distraction, let's have some fun with this speculation.

The Big 3 need loans. Problems in the financial markets are preventing this from happening without government help. Let's say financial terrorism - and let's say its foreign oil-driven terrorism, such as used by bin Laden-types - has helped to hurt the US financial system, preventing Big 3 loans. If such speculation - financial terrorism - proves to be true, would you be more open to an automaker bailout?

House slices into plug-in hybrid tax credit

$3000 - $5000

The House of Representatives has passed a tax credit for plug-in hybrid vehicles as part of H.R 6899. The credit offers $3000 for 5 kWh plug-ins. For every kWh above 5, the credit offers an additional $200 up to a maximum of $5000. Like the same tax credit system that gave Toyota a $3,000 credit for the Prius, the total full credits would be 60,000, then the credit would be cut in half and then quartered.

Still, no reason to get too excited about the details yet. The Senate has yet to put its finger prints on this bill.

Why 40 is the Chevy Volt's Magic Number

GM's top execs flank the Volt at GM's Centennial Celebration

40 miles of electricity. Sounds pretty arbitrary, right? Wrong.

Yesterday, I wrote Volt EV Range: Is 40 enough? Would 80 be better? Should GM increase the Volt's EV range as battery technology develops?

More important, can the Chevy Volt really achieve 40 miles of electric range?

Finish: Why 40 miles is the Chevy Volt's magic number

Plug-in Tax Credits: Toyota in shock?

To offer less than 6 kWh of electricity?

Yesterday, Robert Wimmer, the National Manager of Energy and Environmental Research for Toyota Motor North America, lobbied the Senate Energy and National Resources committee not to pass new legislation that will give tax breaks to the Chevrolet Volt, or other plug-in hybrids with batteries that hold at least six kilowatt-hours of electricity.

"Toyota believes this approach is counterproductive," said Wimmer in a statement before the committee. "It will discourage manufacturers from developing and consumers from purchasing 'blended' plug-ins that are affordable to the greatest number of consumers."

So, the plug-in Prius won't offer 6 kWh worth of electricity? Is it even worth it to make a plug-in hybrid if it doesn't offer at least 6 kWh? Has GM's Volt actually rattled Toyota?

Hybrid Nav screens getting out of control?

Yes they are awesome, but they have costs

I love the navigation and control systems that are found in many hybrid cars. Entertainment options, navigation, and oodles of important car data make these screens the highlight of many hybrids. Unfortunately, they also add significant costs to hybrid vehicles.

Even worse, many of these screens that have become distractions. An unconfirmed source told me that some insurance companies are starting to notice a nasty little trend - hybrid drivers are getting in an unusual number of accidents where they rear-end vehicles, apparently distracted by their console screens.

Nonetheless, these console screens appear to be the future. Is this a bad trend? Should it be only an option?

Volt EV Range: Is 40 enough?

Would 80 be better?

Ever wonder why GM picked 40 miles of electric range for the Chevy Volt? Do you think 40 is enough? Too much?

GM thinks its just right. Not just for the first generation, but for all generations. Know why?

Here's my answer: Why
40 is the Chevy Volt's magic number

Chevy Volt production-ready interior

A little glimpse of the Volt interior

More photos coming tomorrow.

Chevy Volt Fuel Economy in Question

Volt fuel economy with the AC on?

How is the EPA going to assess the fuel economy of the Chevy Volt? That's a good question, as the EPA doesn't have a methodology yet for plug-in hybrid vehicles. When they do, will it be accurate?

According to GM, the Chevy Volt will achieve 40 miles of electric power before using gasoline to generate new electricity to power the Volt. But, what happens if you drive fast? Accelerate fast? What if you are a heavy AC user?

Finish: Chevy Volt fuel economy in question

A problem with Toyota's hybrids

Are all others that far behind?

Starting next year Toyota will make almost 1/2 million hybrid vehicles per year, led by the ever popular Toyota Prius. And, not long ago, Toyota publicly stated that it would seek to produce 1,000,000 hybrid vehicles per year early in the next decade.

Recently, however, Noboru Kikuchi, a Toyota spokesman pushed that goal of 1,000,000 hybrids per year to 2020 (more). So, it will take another decade to double Toyota's hybrid production? Why?

Hopefully, Kickuchi misspoke, or he meant NiMH vehicles with the possibility of additional lithium batteries, which might make sense in reference to his speech. Otherwise, this news is a setback.

No dual mode hybrid cars for GM?

Never a dual mode Malibu, or other car?

I'm not a fan of big SUVs, but my test drives of the Chevy Tahoe hybrid have left me quite impressed. While I don't advocate big SUVs, the technology powering GM's dual mode hybrid vehicles is quite remarkable. I just wish it was in pickup trucks and cars, rather than large SUVs that most consumers really don't need.

Fortunately, GM will put this hybrid technology in trucks soon, a very smart hybrid application. Unfortunately, this technology will probably not ever find its way into GM's cars or sedans. Yesterday's AutomotiveNews claimed that, currently, GM has no plans to make such hybrid vehicles. And, even if they did, it would take at least two years to roll out.

The future of hybrid cars, as far as GM is concerned, is either E Flex, such as in the Chevy Volt, or a lithium-powered BAS, or mild hybrid system.

Lithium fantasies power plug-in hybrids?

Hymotion lithium battery pack in Prius

Tien Duong of the U.S. Department of Energy told a conference at the ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY that costs and life of lithium batteries are still a major obstacle to cost-effective plug-in hybrid vehicles.

"Life means 10 years, plus. For hybrids we know (their batteries) last 10 years plus. For the PHEV (plug-in electric vehicle), we don't know," Duong said.

"One of the phenomenons that cuts short the life of the battery is power. You may have a lot of energy, but if you run out of power, that's no good," he said.

30 miles of electricity for Ford plug-in, 40 for Prius?

Ready now?

I was reading through the Automotive News today, and I came across an article discussing what the Big 3 could do if Congress provides $25 billion in loans to automakers. Currently, any projects using loan money have to achieve a 25 percent gain in fuel economy.

Thus, the Automotive News suggested that Ford convert the Escape and Mariner hybrids into plug-in hybrid vehicles. According to Ford, Automotive News states, a lithium-powered plug-in Escape hybrid can achieve 30 miles of electricity and average 80 mpg.

If true, one would assume that the Toyota Prius, with similar lithium technology, would probably achieve 40 miles of electricity and average about 100 mpg.

Yet, parallel plug-in hybrids have been considered an inferior technology to series plug-in hybrids by many since the launch of the Chevy Volt, but is such an assumption premature (Not the GM necessarily believes this, as GM is developing both plug-in hybrid powertrains)?

The GMC Denali XT Hybrid Pickup: Form or function?

The right direction for hybrid trucks?

I was walking through the Mariott Renaissance Center this morning, which shares space with GM's headquarters, and I saw the GMC Denali hybrid below. It's a pretty striking vehicle for a segment - hybrid pickup tricks - that is terribly under served.

Nonetheless, the fact that the Denali hybrid is built on a unibody frame to provide more of a car-like ride, makes me wonder, is this the right direction for hybrid pickup trucks? I imagine construction workers, farmers, etc. being the primary customers of hybrid pickup trucks. Unfortunately, the Denali hybrid gives me the impression of a vehicle for people whom like to drive trucks, but don't really need their functionality.

While the Denali is an exciting new design direction, is it a case of form over function.

Hybrid aerodynamics driven by fuel economy

Why does it look like the Prius?

The Toyota Prius is the king of hybrid cars. Yet, there are many that hate its design. Thus, now that the world has seen images of both the Honda Insight and the Chevy Volt, there is even more hate in the hybrid world, as these hybrid vehicles have come to resemble the Prius in many ways.

Honda's Chuck Schifsky, a Honda spokesman, adds some insight into this issue. Regarding the Insight design Schifsky recently went on record and stated, "It was done that way because it was the most aerodynamic design, and we were going for fuel economy."

Thus, the Clarity fuel cell vehicle and the CR-Z, another future Honda hybrid, will also share many of these ' prius' design cues. These vehicles, just as the Volt, however, do not resemble the Prius because of its sale's success, but because of an aerodynamic focus on fuel economy.