How far will hybrid sales decline in 2009?
Not the year of the hybridSix months ago, one might have speculated that 2009 would be the year that hybrid cars forever changed the auto industry. It's not just that hybrids were selling for thousands above MSRP six months ago thanks to high gas prices, but that 2009 would also see the launch of the new Honda Insight and the third generation Toyota Prius.
Yet, as we head into 2009 the hype around these two significant hybrid launches has been squashed. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Toyota push back the launch of the new Prius until as close to 2010 as possible.
With a crappy economy and falling gas prices, hybrid sales appear on track for a record year in 2009. Unfortunately, the record will be for biggest year-to-year sales decline.
Labels: honda insight hybrid, Hybrid Vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:26 AM
9 Comments:
Just after writing this post, I saw that the Gulf Oil CEO is claiming that if conditions persist, oil will drop below $20.00 per barrel.
It seems gas prices have to rise some time in 2009, but if oil stays on its current pace through 2009, hybrid sales are dead.
This post has been removed by the author.
On the contrary.
Smart people will pick up a hybrid for less than MSRP and tell the dealers to shove it.
It would be in Toyota's interest to continue to push and sell hybrids. And coupled with that must come peoples' understanding and change in attitudes of why more efficient cars are better regardless of what is going on around them. I don't have faith in the second part happening because, as you and I have discussed numerous times, people are for the most part pretty stupid.
Americans measure the worth of a car by its size...if you can pick up a pathetically large SUV for the same price as a Prius...you are smart. If you buy a Prius, you are stupid. That has been the prevailing nearsighted American consumer thinking and vision.
I think pain is good. High fuel prices are good. Pushing people to be efficient is good. It has to happen, will happen, and should happen.
I find the comparison between this issue and the housing the same. People are whining about their magic money disappearing. That's good. Prices need to come back to check....and they will. If not, you're going to have a FAR FAR worse quality of life living in LA than if they hadn't. People don't get that...because they can't see beyond tomorrow.
Tomorrow is our future...and we are throwing it away.
By the way Dahc,
I don't know how much reading you do, but anyone interested, pick up a book called "Smelling Land"
Just fantastic....and technically all there...and this is from an engineer's point of view.
Doesn't any one care about the quality of air? And are we so stupid as Americans to think gas will never go up again?
What the heck all we do is believe what we hear, so now we can buy big cars (gas hogs) again!
I love America but how stupid are we?
Pretty stupid. I've said that for a long time.
Go to any automotive forum in general...they will spew venom towards people like you and I because what you say is in direct conflict with their egotistical, self-centered ways of life.
Dahc knows...I've always said that what you drive and how you drive is a DIRECT extension of one's personality and any inadequacies one may have. What people do while in their cars is what they WANT to do to others but usually cannot face to face. Basically...watch how people drive in LA...and you realize this place is filled with assholes galore.
Now try and tell these same people they are doing the wrong thing and they should reduce their waste....good luck. You'd have a better chance of putting a 2 year old to sleep when they don't want to do so.
Indigo Incarnates
I imagine that car sales in general will fall through the floor in 2009. Bush-II pretty much let the CEOs and speculators steal America blind for eight years. So now we're probably going to call the 2009-2011 period "The Second Great Depression".
It'll be hard to sell hybrids once unemployment hits 30% and when the banks want a 720 credit score in order to buy a car.
Noz-
I usually get hammered every time I bring up hydrogen. Obviously, there are serious impediments, but the potential seems vast. I'll definitely check out this book. Did you read the "Hydrogen Economy"?
Indigo-
Points taken, but hybrid sales are posting bigger sales declines, percentage wise than any other vehicle segment. The economy is affecting all vehicle sales, but the difference seems to be that cheap gas is killing hybrid sales even more.
Bush rightly deserves lots of blame, but cheap gas leads to stupid American consumerism, which is not all Bush's fault.
Dahc,
No I haven't read that but would like to.
Smelling Lands is a fantastic book...honestly it's humbling in terms of how far gone we really are. Even with a hydrogen economy, the excess of CO2 in our atmosphere is well beyond what we are going to be able to cope with.
Don't let the trolls get you down about hydrogen....they are the same losers who also didn't think we could fly or go faster than 10 miles an hour in a car.
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