EIA Outlook: PHEVs over-hyped and more bailout questions
Is this really going to save GM?By 2014, automakers will be selling 90,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles per year in the US, thanks to tax credits, according to a new EIA report. And, by 2030 PHEVs will make up just 2 percent of total new vehicle sales in the US.
Conventional hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, will make up 38 percent of new sales, compared to 2.4 percent in 2008.
The report is based on what the EIA sees as no growth in oil consumption between now and 2030 - a finding which seems to be supported by the Brookings Institute. This lack of growth, according to the EIA, will be caused by a combination of higher CAFE standards, higher oil prices, and greater biofuel use.
Additionally, increased US oil production and biofuel use will provide significant declines in the use of imported oil, according to the EIA.
This EIA data, coupled with the Brookings Institute Report, does suggest a cultural shift in US transportation, such as less cars, more public transportation, living closer to work, etc. Yet, it does not appear that automakers, nor Congress and it's bailout plans, are considering this potential reality.
For instance, this data, coupled with the Brookings data, suggests that US auto sales won't return to 17 million units per year, possibly, ever. In fact, today's run rate could be closer to reality. If so, a bailout will be useless, especially when automakers are switching to new fuel efficient vehicles with significantly smaller profit margins. Significant, painful restructuring will be required.
And, if hybrids, rather than plug-in hybrids, are the key to auto sales success for the next decade or two, will the Big 3 be ready to compete with Toyota and Honda when neither yet have a Toyota Prius contender?
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
6:44 AM
4 Comments:
Don't forget bike transportation! It's obvious that either car companies will be smaller or most likely, some will go out of business. The EIA has been too conservative in its estimates in the past so PHEV's sales could be much higher. The EIA never thought hybrid sales would reach levels that we saw in the last couple of years. In either case, I like that people are thinking that gas use will continue too decline!
Absolutely, bike transportation. Hey, that would help with the nation's health care system as well. If we weren't so fat, lazy and unhealthy, we probably wouldn't have a health care problem!
I too think the EIA is being too conservative, but isn't it time to kill the car, as a matter of speaking?
Overall, people are still clustering in metropolitan areas, and this is a trend expected to continue. So, live closer to work. Telecommute. Build out public transportation. Develop bike lanes, maybe even scooter lanes.
Kill the car.
17,000,000 EVs per year isn't the best solution to 17,000,000 gas guzzlers per year.
We need to move away from this model of consumption economics, or at least move to smarter, more efficient consumption.
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I think I would argue that Detroit has already lost the hybrid game, and they would be wasting their time trying to go after a Prius. They could do it, but they won't make any money anyway. Their is no domestic battery capacity, so Detroit would have to import batteries from Japan. Toyota and Honda would always have a cost advantage in that scenario.
So, I think Detroits only hope is to create a kind of global niche in eFlex type EREV's. We can already assume that the auto industry is going to shrink significantly. So, if Detroit is going to sell a lot less cars going forward, might as well make them EREV's that will have governmental support, help establish a domestic battery industry, and HOPEFULLY give Detroit enough of a head start to establish a defendable and profitable niche in EREV's within 10 years.
I fear that if Detroit tries to go after the hybrid market because it is now a proven market they will get their hats handed to them. Better to form an investment partnership with DC to create a new auto industry around EREV and domestic battery intellectual property.
Sales are important, but sometimes it is very strategically important over the long term to control your destiny by owning the key enabling technologies of your products. EREV's are a once in a lifetime opportunity to create new, patentable automobile intellectual property. This is the key to Apple's success in owning the hardware and software intellectual property of their consumer electronics, and it can be the key to Detroit's long term future.
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