Hybrid killers: Cheaper gas, tighter credit and a weaker economy
Insight's Paris debut stifled by auto sales declineAuto sales are crashing. Dealers are closing their doors. Consumers can't finance a new vehicle without perfect credit or a big wad of cash. Gas prices are still high, but falling.
So, what's selling? Small, cheap cars continue to move. Most other vehicle segments are falling drastically. And, if not for incentives, they'd be DOA.
Hybrid cars are still moving, but supply is limited. But what happens mid-next year when supplies of hybrids increase drastically?
If the economy is still faltering, as gas prices continue their slide, will these hybrids sell? Will cheaper gas and a weak economy take the hype out of hybrid vehicles without serious pricing incentives?
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
6:07 AM
7 Comments:
The pace of growth in the rest of the world will continue to accelerate for quite some time. China, India, Russia - they have mind-boggling numbers of people whose quality of life is improving steadily, and with it their use of oil-based products. Therefore, I do not see gas prices crashing for any appreciable length of time.
In the US, the folks that have jobs and need a new car are going to be more frugal. In other words, I think a great many people will come out of the economic down-turn with a stronger desire to go with cars that save them money - and hybrids/plug-in hybrids do that in a way that it is easy for folks to relate to - lower energy/fuel costs out of pocket week to week and month to month.
Finally, I'm confident that the auto industry, whether it is the new alt.car, Asian, or dinosauric (my new word of the day) Detroit companies, will find a way to finance cars to the masses in the years to come.
Not speaking for the rest of the American Chimps out there, I don't care if they start giving away gas. I'm gonna buy a Plug in Hybrid or Electric regardless when I need a new vehicle. Unless the cost is absorbanant, that's the rout I'm going. Still rather pay nothing for gas, not pollute, etc. than pay less. The big picture America, the big picture.
i fully agree that the long term outlook for oil is higher, but i do think it could drop enough below $3.00 for a few years that many consumers will be less interested in investing in the long term benefits of hybrids.
if consumers are less willing to invest, will automakers invest less as well?
in my opinion, we're already moving too slow.
thus, with cheaper gas and the move to more expensive lithium batteries, which could be much more expensive than anticipated, i worry that the drive towards electrification could stagnate.
Dahch - You worry too much! But you do a good job keeping the conversation churning.
The anon guy is hitting on this another way. There is a fundamental shift coming down the pike. Some of the change may happen because people are actually getting scared about their future and the future of our country (I know that is what motivates me). But by and large, the change is going to come about simply because the "new" automotive industry is going to be able to sell better products to consumers at a lower price.
perhaps i do worry too much.
still, at GM's Centennial Event when GM officially showed the Volt, Larry Burns, GM's future product guru, stated quite clearly that if there was one thing he worried about, he stated that a return to cheaper gas "kept him up at night".
And my response to Larry's dinosauric comment is taken from a yet to be written book chronicling the final fall of the original US automakers, "Larry Burns, an ill-sighted former future product guru at GM, just couldn't see the forest through the trees..."
Perhaps.
Still, cheap gas makes people stupid. History has proven that fact without doubt.
Even after 9/11 and everything it led to, most people still didn't connect their gas-guzzling to the problem.
Most Americans don't talk about how evil OPEC is, they talk about how evil big oil companies such as Chevron are, yet it's OPEC and other NOCs that are really in control.
Ultimately, the majority of consumers only started to care once gas prices surged well above $3.00 and close to $4.00.
In the summer of 2007, Toyota had to provide incentives to sell the Prius and gas prices were getting close to $3.00 then, and most think we're heading back to under $3.00 soon.
Yes, it will be temporary, but if a recession keeps gas prices low for a few years, i think many americans will return to stupidity.
As a culture we've simply lost any sense of investing in the future.
Still, maybe you're right. Maybe we've changed this time.
Yet, when I go to auto shows, when I talk to people in my every day life, I don't sense that change.
I think we're in the minority my friend.
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