We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?
Honda has it right?Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?
For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.
Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?
Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, electric cars, honda insight hybrid, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:04 AM
9 Comments:
It's kinda funny that you are assuming all US residents having a garage.
i'm not really, and i think that's a great point. unfortunately, it's not very easy to create a headline, 'all of us with garages and can plug-in want to plug in', so i had to generalize a bit.
still, in the future, smart grid technology might make plug-ins feasible even for those without garages and those whom park on the street, such as charging at work, for instance.
my belief is that we should go after plug-in hybrids as aggressively as possible. however, just as importantly, we should also go after non-plug-in hybrids as aggressively as possible.
yet, the Big 3 to a large extent, are essentially saying that hybrid cars, such as the Prius or Honda Insight, are irrelevant. And I couldn't disagree more. America needs the Chevy Volt, but it also needs a GM Prius-contender.
People need to do the math. Unfortunately, some of it is pretty fuzzy, especially when you try to project savings based on the cost of gasoline. The second unknown assumption is "how long are people going to keep a plug-in". I'll tell you what, I'd keep it for 10 years in which case, my total savings in gas could easily exceed $30,000 over a 10 year period. suddenly, paying a $10,000 or even a $20,000 premium for a plug-in hybrid makes a little more sense. Oh ya, throw in the $7,500 tax credit and then it's really a no brainer. Ultimately, we have to quit looking at the dollars and sense as the number one priority and start putting more emphasis on energy independence. Think of what we could do with all the money we throw away to protect our energy dependence on countries that hate us anyway.
well, according to gm, after 10 years the volt would save $15,000 in gas compared to a 30 mpg vehicle if the Volt only used electricity.
i think many will regularly use a lot of gas. yes, 40 something is the average commute, statistically, which means many are far above that and many far below that. likewise, someone told me 60 percent of all yearly mileage is put on over the weekends and holidays - that means a lot of gas.
so, in the real world, the Volt isn't going to be an EV only vehicle for a significant percent of consumers.
still, let's leave at a $15,000 savings. after the tax credits expire and scales of economy kick in, i'd bet the best price for a Volt will be $30,000, although, honestly, i'b bet $35,000 is a more realistic long term price.
after 10 years, taht would put you into the car for about $15,000 - $20,000.
that's compared to a 30 mpg car. how about compared to a $19,000 50 mpg Honda Insight? The math isn't quite as favorable, based on cost-effectiveness.
still, your point about foreign oil dependency is also very relevant.
however, if we wait for plug-in to solve foreign oil dependency, we might be waiting a lot longer than we have to.
for many consumers, conventional hybrid cars might be the only option. for a significant percent of consumer, probably not a majority, but a significant percent nonetheless, conventional hybrids will be more cost-effective.
the big 3 could use the government loans to develop Prius contenders. instead, they've been trying to lobby Congress to lower the 25 percent improvement in fuel economy criterion.
that really bothers me.
it's time to start dealing with foreign oil dependency right now. not in 2010 when automakers roll out a few thousand plug-ins. not in 2020 when automakers roll out, if everything goes perfectly, a few hundred thousand plug-ins, but right now.
Dahc,
How about they take the humongous profits they've been making for the past decade or two on low quality crap like their SUVs and use it to cover the Volt's costs and losses?
That's the least they could do for all the damage and pillaging they have caused to our precious earth on top of the fact we've had to endure some of the crappiest vehicles ever made.
The fuel economy results presented here must be understood as estimates: some
Uncertainty is introduced both by the model and the input data
To the model. Additionally, the test procedure for
Determining hybrid vehicle fuel economy is a difficult
The fuel economy results presented here must be understood as estimates: some
Uncertainty is introduced both by the model and the input data
To the model. Additionally, the test procedure for
Determining hybrid vehicle fuel economy is a difficult
well, they don't have any money. the big 3 are losing billions every quarter.
without help from the feds, i'm not sure the big 3 could make these next gen vehicles.
The fuel economy results presented here must be understood as estimates: some
Uncertainty is introduced both by the model and the input data
To the model. Additionally, the test procedure for
Determining hybrid vehicle fuel economy is a difficult
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