15 percent by 2035: The reality of plug-in hybrids
How long before all of us drive something like the Volt?All day long I've been working on a story that I titled 'Fool's Gold: The electrification of the automobile', that I just haven't been able to finish. Now before EV fans go crazy, I'm not arguing against electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles. I'm arguing the reason for these vehicles is to get off oil, especially foreign oil, and to reduce our carbon footprint.
Thus, in my opinion, conventional hybrid cars, for the next decade or two, are every bit as important as plug-ins if we want to act as quickly as possible to achieve this change. Waiting until all of us drive an EV or PHEV is simply fool's gold.
As I was taking a break from rereading my draft - yes, I actually edit my posts sometimes, sometimes - the folks over at Yale Environment 360 sent me an e-mail with a link to the one of their posts, Revenge of the Electric Car.
There isn't much in this piece that hasn't been covered by this blog. Nonetheless, it is a very nice summary of the state of electric cars and other plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, one quote really stuck out.
“It’s hard to overestimate the inertia of the old system, and how resistant many people are to change,” says Tom Turrentine, head of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California at Davis. A recent MIT study on the future of the car suggested plug-in vehicles might capture, at best, 15 percent of the light-duty vehicle market (passenger cars and SUVs) by 2035.
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
1:49 PM
6 Comments:
Lots of experts have told us how things are never going to change from the status quo - Roman engineers telling the world that all meaningful engineering feats that could be accomplished already had been accomplished, man will die if he goes much faster than a speeding horse, man will never fly, IBM telling us personal computers would never be practical...
The reality is that even in our less than perfect democracy, change will happen at the pace change needs to happen.
I suspect the electrification of the automobile and the emergence of alternative energy sources to feed the growing power requirements of the grid will happen faster than most expect, simply because they will be the lower cost solutions.
i found 15 percent by 2035 to be shockingly low.
still, i hear regularly from Volt fans that seem to think by 2011 everyone will be able have a Volt. that just isn't going to be the case.
even the press has gotten almost volt giddy, even poking fun at the prius. yet, we need both technologies desperately if we're going to significantly reduce foreign oil dependency in the next decade or two.
if we all wait for only the volt, or vehicles like the volt, then our energy crisis is going to be far worse than it is today before there are enough EVs to fulfill our needs.
i think 10 percent by 2020 is almost impossible, but by 2035 i think it could easily be 30 or 40 percent, maybe even more if things go perfect. yet, that's still almost 20 years away.
how many more iraq wars will we have between then and now?
Look at how fast flat panel displays replaced CRT's once the flat panel was actually cheaper. The problem isn't inertia, it's cost. When either fuel prices get high enough or battery prices get low enough the transformation will be dizzyingly fast.
If the other 75% of vehicles will be hybrid, that is not bad at all :-)
well, flat panels cost a lot less than cars, although i do agree in general with that sentiment.
still, look at the state of the US economy, there is a very good chance that the us economy will be sluggish for several years. already its much harder to get a loan than it was 6 mos ago and car loan defaults are up significantly. so affordability is a big issue.
likewise, many energy analysts believe that around 2010 - there is going to be a big drop in gas prices. they don't believe it will last long, but it could last a few years, maybe several years.
coupled with my opinion that plug-ins probably won't achieve even 5 percent of American marketshare by 2020, and i'm concerned.
my worry is that conditions won't be tough enough to force consumers to take bold, visionary action when buying their autos. plug-ins are going to be too much too fast, unless gas prices rise significantly, and i think OPEC will do everything possible to prevent that from happening.
thus, at first i thought 15 percent by 2035 was way too low, but as i think about it more and more, i worry that it might be accurate.
i really worry that the high costs of this technology, initially combined with a temporary reduction in energy prices, is going to breed complacency in most auto consumers. and when the calm before the storm ends, we won't be able to act quickly enough.
like the plug-in hybrid tax credit, our energy policy has no real real goal to achieve. arbitrary CAFE numbers and battery capacity requirements are our drivers.
i say we should have a much simpler goal. end foreign oil dependency by 2025, at the latest. since it takes 12 years to recycle the us auto fleet, that still gives US automakers a few years to prepare and plan with the help of Congress.
too much focus, i believe, is being placed on plug-ins and i just don't think the technology is going to mature fast enough. that doesn't mean we shouldn't push for it any less aggressively, but that we should be pushing other technologies as well.
lb-
and that's sort of my point. i've still not heard of a plan from any of the big 3 to produce a prius challenger, for instance. they're just trying to leapfrog the prius.
i absolutely believe that cheap hybrid cars could have far more impact in the next decade than plug-in hybrids - maybe even a good bit longer. yet, US automakers are essentially telling us that the Prius and Insight are irrelevant. just wait for their range extended EVS.
How long will we be waiting for millions of such vehicles to be produced per year that are cost effective for both consumers and automakers?
because without those numbers, foreign oil dependency and global warming are only going to get worse in the interim.
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