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Friday, August 01, 2008

Can US automakers survive the hybrid revolution?

We've come a long way in the last 10 years

Hybrid revolution. Some don't believe in such a thing. They believe that hybrid vehicles are a gimmick. That other technologies, such as EVs or fuel cell vehicles, are the real solution. Forget that Toyota is developing its fuel cell vehicles and hybrids around the Hybrid Synergy Drive - that Toyota's fuel cell vehicles will be fuel cell hybrid vehicles. Or, forget that many consumers might forever prefer a plug-in hybrid vehicle over an electric vehicle for any number of reasons.

Furthermore, I'd bet that within just 10 years most automobiles sold in the US will at least be mild hybrid vehicles.

Thus, the reality of the hybrid future isn't a question in my mind. It's a fact. The question I have is, can US automakers survive the hybrid revolution? The US automaker with the most aggressive - at least publicly - hybrid plans, GM, is bleeding billions by the quarter. Can GM afford to go hell bent for leather at fuel economy? Likewise, can GM and other US automakers afford not to?

Will the Big 3 still be here in 10 years, or will it be more like the Big 2? The Big 1?

Labels: fuel cells, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles

posted by Dahcredyns at 7:52 AM

14 Comments:

Blogger Jabroni said...

This is a little off topic, but I want to share my astonishment!

I drove through a Toyota dealership today to see if they had a Prius. As it turns out, they had two of them, both used, one with 9500 miles and one with 15,000 miles. Both were 2008 models. They were both in nice condition, but here is the kicker. They were asking $28,900 for the model with 15K miles! I was floored at the nerve of these guys. MSRP for a new 2008 model is $23,900 and these guys are asking for a 5K premium on a USED one. Pure, unadulterated greed, my friends.

9:17 AM  
Blogger Nozferatu said...

Welcome to America...the land of the "free" - ly stupid.

By the way, for anyone interested, that Karl on Cars guy started up again yesterday.

But on topic...what makes you think Dahc, given the past pathetic history of US automakers, that they will offer us what we want?

What they will do instead is offer garbage and shove it down our throats...because people here accept it.

They have never been able to compete with Asian automakers and they never will.

9:41 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Well, you might be right, Noz. There I go again interjecting hope into my thinking.

jabroni - while many will argue its just supply and demand, i agree that it is nothing but greed. perhaps, if this money were going into developing more supplies, it wouldn't be so bad, but its only lining dealership pockets.

9:58 AM  
Blogger ZenDude said...

Carmax here in Arizona are selling several(upto 7 last month) 2007 Prius for $27,000 and are now down to 2 so they must be selling. Most had about 25,000 miles on them. Simple supply & demand. But in the long run this is a good thing because if these cars are profitable, then all automakers will be forced to sell them.

10:23 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

let's hope so, zendude, let's hope so.

10:27 AM  
Anonymous OttotheScourge said...

Well, Mr. Jabroni, instead of greed, I'd suggest that anybody who sells anything, from cars to Kleenex, should always ask a fair price. This holds true when anyone asks "or best offer." What do you suppose teh best offer would be on those two Priuses if they ask people to put in a bid rather than asking a certain price?

1:22 PM  
Blogger Nozferatu said...

Hey Dahc.

I have a question for you that is a little off topic and I didn't know how to get a hold of you other than through your blog post...

I want to start my own blog regarding the automotive/environmental stuff. I know how to make the blog...but how do you get your blog recognized? I mean, if I were to search for hybrid cars and what not, your blog would show up in the top ten for sure. How would I get the blog rolling per say?
Thanks
Noz.

10:12 PM  
Blogger Wetdog said...

The problem is not carmakers at all. The problem is the fuel.

Diesel engines can use biodiesel 100% or any combination with petroleum with no modification whatever.

Flex Fuel cars can use E-85(85% ethanol) or petroleum gasoline in any combination. Flex Fuel cars are rolling off the assembly lines now and have been for years, and cost the same or only slightly more than conventional cars.

We can do anything with biofuels and flex fuel or diesel vehicles that we do with petroleum. We can do it better, cheaper, cleaner and not have to change anything that we do now. And biofuels do not pollute. Biofuels are cheaper than petroleum and will only continue to get cheaper the more we produce.

Switching to biofuels will create millions of new jobs, keep money in the US, create food and other products with co-generation, reverse inflation and recession, and we can keep doing them forever without damage to the earth.

Breaking The Chains.
http://groups.msn.com/BreakingTheChains/_whatsnew.msnw

7:49 AM  
Blogger Nozferatu said...

How do biofuels NOT pollute? You're burning something aren't you?

This whole carbon neutral thing is ludicrous IMO.

It's also the rate of emissions that is critical. If you pure water in a tube too fast, it will overflow...regardless of how harmless it may be. The result is the same with the atmosphere. The surrounding environment still has to process all this carbon dioxide that is being pumped into the air...even if it was taken out of the surroundings to begin with.

PLUS...what about other pollutants? It's not just CO2...it's a whole host of other things too.

Don't get me wrong...I agree with your concept and direction...but just switching to biofuels is not the answer...and frankly, all it does is maintain the power of "fuel" with the current oil firms.

I want those fkers to not exist anymore.

9:21 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

noz-

I've never tried to manipulate search engine kinds of things for this blog. I just write because I like writing about this subject.

Ultimately, good content and links are what most say work best. If a bunch of related sites link to yours, it increases your relevance. Still, this linkage angle is widely abused by bloggers and I'm sure Google will eventually develop other ranking parameters in their algorithm.

Just focus on a niche you care about.

8:00 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

noz-

I've never tried to manipulate search engine kinds of things for this blog. I just write because I like writing about this subject.

Ultimately, good content and links are what most say work best. If a bunch of related sites link to yours, it increases your relevance. Still, this linkage angle is widely abused by bloggers and I'm sure Google will eventually develop other ranking parameters in their algorithm.

Just focus on a niche you care about.

8:00 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Wetdog-

It takes a highly optimistic view to believe that biofuels could replace petroleum.

You mention flex-fuel and pollution. What about the incredible amount of chemicals used to grow corn. Corn is a terrible crop when it comes to soil quality. The midwest, for example, is losing tons of the world's best top soil every year because of crops like corn which destroy the ground. That's pollution.

Without cellulosic biofuelsl, I just don't see biofuels offering any realistic solution. Even with cellulosic biofuels, many agronomists claim that biofuels will still fall far short of achieving even foreign oil dependence, let alone oil dependence.

There is no doubt biofuels can be a piece of the solution, but without far more efficient vehicles, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids, biofuels are not nearly enough.

8:07 AM  
Blogger Nozferatu said...

Hey Dahc...

Thanks!

But I'm not sure if I understand. How does a website get recognition if no one knows your site exists?

That's whats confusing.

9:44 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Send me an e-mail at soultek@soultek.com.

12:50 PM  

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