US automakers: Just hoping hybrids go away?
Dodge Durango hybrid: Can hybrid versions of gas-guzzlers save the US auto industry?The other day I read an article that has echoed a sentiment spewing out of the mainstream auto publications the last few weeks, 'give US automakers a break' because 'no one would have predicted $4.00 gas 4 years ago.'
Perhaps many, but many others saw this possibility. Thus, I can only refer to people that, after 9/11 and Katrina, for example, whom thought that foreign oil and oil dependency weren't going to be an issue in the next few years, as foolish, and I've been saying that on this blog for more than 4 years. But, whatever, the past is the past, and now I'm more concerned about the future.
Finish: US automakers: Just hoping hybrid vehicles go away?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:56 AM
13 Comments:
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The other day I read an article that has echoed a sentiment spewing out of the mainstream auto publications the last few weeks, 'give US automakers a break' because 'no one would have predicted $4.00 gas 4 years ago.'
Perhaps many, but many others saw this possibility. Thus, I can only refer to people that, after 9/11 and Katrina, for example, whom thought that foreign oil and oil dependency weren't going to be an issue in the next few years, as foolish, and I've been saying that on this blog for more than 4 years. But, whatever, the past is the past, and now I'm more concerned about the future.
In the future and within the next couple of years, Toyota might already be producing a million hybrid vehicles per year. Likewise, Honda is ramping up to produce several hundred thousand hybrids per year.
In terms of US automakers, GM has the Chevy Volt, but the world won't see 100,000 Volts per year until some time after 2015. The only other hybrid powertrain that GM has mentioned in such numbers is its mild hybrid powertrain, which will be given a very interesting lithium upgrade in 2010/2011. While this blog regularly pooh-poohs mild hybrid vehicles, this lithium angle does have potential, but, like the Volt, the keyword is potential.
The other 2 US automakers will make some hybrids, but neither seems to be scaling towards a plan of anywhere near 100,000 hybrids per year, which means even if they decide to do it, it will still take years to ramp up production.
Fortunately, in the very near future, a significant drop in gasoline prices is likely, and such a downward move - as has happened in the past - could be a temporary band-aide for US automakers, but a band-aide is just a band-aide for the ills facing US automakers. Consequently, can US automakers really stop the bleeding without far more serious and aggressive hybrid plans?
Make that "WHO thought foreign oil..."
Unfortunately, lower gas prices are the last thing we need. It makes me wonder if this lower pricing has been times with the US elections? I would not doubt it.
Instead of dragging their feet producing hybrids, the automakers should return to making excellent EV's and PHEV's. For example, Toyota could EASILY beef up the Prius with a bigger battery pack and give us the plug in version tomorrow. Toyota could also resume production of the RAV4 EV which I guarantee would be a huge hit. GM and Ford and Honda also could revive their respective EV's with little effort but as we have seen, they have not the will.
Even in the face of historic gas prices, automakers simply refuse to get off the schneid and help us out. Even their current hybrid offerings seem to be token gestures, as I have not seen them for sale locally where I live. In other words, they are not producing enough of these vehicles to make a difference.
I'm going with a startup US auto maker, Zero Pollution Motors. This company will release an $18,000 sedan in 2010, that can be run without any petroleum products at all. This is just the car America needs to end our dependence on foreign oil. There is an ethanol plant being built near where I live, and I plan on running it on 100% ethanol.
Chrysler was the company that revolutionized the auto market back in the 1980s with their Minivan-- Nobody else made such a family vehicle at the time and they profited from being first to market with their Dodge Caravan.
What they need to do now is re-introduce their minivan-- BY MAKING ONE WITH A HYBRID DRIVETRAIN.
Nobody else is offering a hybrid minivan except Toyota in Japan with their Estima Hybrid, and they had no plans to bring that to the U.S. anytime soon.
This is a situation Chrysler can easily exploit-- But I'm not holding my breath, what with the incompetant crew running all three Detroit companies today.
What I think is Americans never thought their imperialistic crap would finally come to an end after a good 60 years of bringing absolute misery, destruction, and despair to parts of the world and groups of people that most Americans neither have a clue about nor do they even care about frankly.
Who thought the arrogance of Americans would trip them up?
The leadership at the auto companies never ceases to amaze me. If there was a car with 50 percent better gas milage that met people's needs for space it would have been snapped up. Gas was cheaper then but it's always better to spend less on something like gas than more.
They opposed EVs and smaller cars because of lower profits. There never was a thought about giving people what they want.
Indigo Incarnates
I think GM and Ford are just waiting for the huge taxpayer-paid bailout. Then the CEOs can soak the citizens for hybrid powertrain research instead of reducing their own bloated compensation packages.
I think it was VERY easy to foresee $4/gallon gasoline four years ago. It was so easy to see that Honda got their Fit ready just in time, just as Toyota did with their Yaris.
Indigo-
A source inside GM once told me that GM had studied gas prices a few years earlier and concluded that near $4.00 gas was a serious possibility. I think its just been hard for automakers to take off the blinders.
jabroni-
I don't disagree that automakers could make these vehicles, but could they do it a pricing point that consumers would find acceptable and make a profit? If yes, could they develop enough batteries where it would make a difference?
Lithium isn't there yet. NiMH supplies are really tight. Going back to lead acid seems pointless.
I talked to a guy that sells lead acid PHEV conversions and he told me the batteries wear out after about 2 years and yet the cost is still over $6,000.
It just seems that without a significant change in consumer psychology in automobile expectations, I'm just not sure that the battery technology for EV mass-production is yet ready for anything less than high end niche production.
I think we're getting really close, but even the, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes battery suppliers another decade or longer to start producing enough batteries for 10's of million of vehicles annually. Since the auto industry is driven by mass production, this is a serious impediment.
I wish US automakers would make a hybrid minivan. I live in the suburbs and drive my kids everywhere and want a safe, spacious, yet eco-friendly mode of transportation.
There's a new campaign to get automakers' attention:
http://www.thepoint.com/campaigns/let-s-bring-hybrid-minivans-to-the-suburbs
I agree, unfortunately, automakers seem to be switching away from minivans to crossovers. Apparently, minivans just aren't cool enough for enough consumers. Perhaps hybrid versions could make consumers re-embrace the practicality of minivans for families.
I think a significant near-term decrease in gas prices would be a bad thing. In the middle of the country, where I live, there still seems to be huge resistance to moving away from large, fuel inefficient vehicles. The last thing we need is for prices to suddenly and mysteriously decrease and reinforce the notion that "there is a limitless supply of crude oil, if only those greedy oil companies would stop manipulating the market".
Are people even thinking in good old middle America?
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