Tesla's Musk: Plug-in hybrids suck and why he's wrong
Tesla founder rips PHEVsElon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors, was recently asked by Newsweek why he didn't consider plug-in hybrid vehicles in addition to pure electric vehicles. He replied, "We spent a lot of time last year looking at plug-in hybrids and ultimately concluded that it would not be a very good car. You're forced to compromise. Because you need both a gasoline-powered engine and a big battery, neither can be very good, and the engine will be a weak engine. It's just not where the future lies. We'll be able to offer a car with a 305-mile range roughly three years from now."
Ultimately, Musk believes that within 30 years America's transportation system could be 100 percent solar-powered pure electric vehicles.
As a fan and advocate for the electrification of the automobile, I think Musk is selling his book - his investments in solar power and EVs - in preparation for a Tesla IPO.
Finish: Tesla's Musk: Plug-in hybrids suck and why he's wrong
Labels: electric cars, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:51 AM
19 Comments:
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Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors, was recently asked by Newsweek why he didn't consider plug-in hybrid vehicles in addition to pure electric vehicles. He replied, "We spent a lot of time last year looking at plug-in hybrids and ultimately concluded that it would not be a very good car. You're forced to compromise. Because you need both a gasoline-powered engine and a big battery, neither can be very good, and the engine will be a weak engine. It's just not where the future lies. We'll be able to offer a car with a 305-mile range roughly three years from now."
Ultimately, Musk believes that within 30 years America's transportation system could be 100 percent solar-powered pure electric vehicles.
As a fan and advocate for the electrification of the automobile, I think Musk is selling his book - his investments in solar power and EVs - in preparation for a Tesla IPO.
Today, and for the next five to ten years, conventional hybrid vehicles make the most sense as they most cost-effectively enable the mass production of many of the components required for electrification. In about 5 years plug-in hybrid vehicles will begin to have an impact, but serious mass-production of PHEVs is still almost certainly closer to 10 years away.
EVs that meet consumer expectations can and should be concurrently developed, but they will still be more expensive than Musk seems to assume and there will be infrastructure limitations for many consumers. For instance, Musk believes auto consumers won't mind waiting around for an hour using high powered chargers on longer trips, versus a 5 minute fill-up with gas in 150 mile per gallon, cheaper upfront, PHEVs.
In my opinion, Musk is making a lot of technological assumptions and assumptions have a bad way of making asses of assumers - Tesla's Roadster has been a perfect example.
The future will hold plenty of room for both PHEVs and EVs in the next few decades and each will find consumers that prefer one technology over the other for various reasons - some of which probably aren't even comprehensible today.
Just as important, the future of the auto industry and the key to ever-critical mass-production will be driven by India and China - not America. Judging the future of the auto industry, which is driven almost exclusively by mass-production, through an American lense makes far less sense today than it did just five years ago and it will make even less sense five years from now. Twenty years from now, America's automobile culture will mean little to the rest of the world. Yet, the automobile culture of India and China will mean much to America.
Nonetheless, I find much common ground with Musk's long term vision and I hope he can prove my timeline incorrect.
At what cost Mr Musk?
You have the millions...I don't. I can't afford your Tesla...neither now NOR in three years time. How much do you propose your 305 mile EV will go for? $15K? $20K? $25K?
Because any more than that, most people won't buy it...many can't afford it, some won't spend that much. So who is your target audience Mr. Musk? The rich, wealthy? Or just the plain idiots who think paying $700-900 per month for a car is OK? Geez...thanks.
I think it comes down to know-how. Tesla doesn't have the smarts to make a functional hybrid like Toyota. The Pruis is a technological marvel...far more so than the Tesla. If Toyota could replace the regular IC engine with someone less dirty, more efficient, it would the ultimate concept in new generation vehicles.
This is when things will really change.
Tesla is a company I would love to get behind, but thus far they've only over-promised and under-delivered. For the next few years they won't even make 2000 cars per year.
Yet, Tesla can do what other automakers cannot, but they need the help of a major manufacturer??
This kind of marketing and spin makes me wonder is Musk really passionate about EVs or a top dollar IPO?
I still, for now, just really like the parallel hybrid idea like the Volt and the Fisker. It's truly and electric car, and most of the time I would never even tap the gas powered motor. Which, in itself would be more efficient (smaller, no real change in torque needed since the electric motor propels the car, little need for a tranny or even differentials if hub mounted or inline with the axles) and it could be modified to run off of Ethenol, biodiesel or maybe even Nat Gas. Then, once battery technology catches up, and we'll realize we don't really even need this IC generator (more battery space!) we'll be on our way.
The Volt is actually a series hybrid versus the Prius, which is a parallel hybrid, but I get your point.
Still, until we get a few 100,000 series hybrids on the road per year, there will still be some questions about series hybrids. For instance, will they be worth the cost premium versus parallel hybrids, especially plug-in parallel hybrids?
Still,I am also excited to see this technology come to fruition. I desperately hope it lives up to the hype.
How about actually delivering more than a handful of cars before dissing the competition? And solar powered cars in 30 years? Maybe, but it doesn't seem likely. At least, not purely solar.
http://www.buyingadvice.com/
What do you mean by a series hybrid? Doesn't it have the mechanical transmission at all? Only, electrical engines + generators connected to the gasoline engine? If this is true, such a vehicle should be rather cheap.
Could be cheap, depending on how much electric range your going for, but if you lower the range too much, then I would assume vehicle performance might be adversely affected since the vehicle wouldn't be able to use both power sources in parallel.
still, I wonder if 20 miles of pure electric power could have been balanced enough.
All big carrier trucks don't have mechanical transmission and NOT BATTARIES AT ALL. The engine is connected directly to the generator and the latter feeds power to the electric engines that rotate wheels. So, I don't think it is a matter of batteries and/or vehicle range.
The conversation was regarding the Prius and the Volt and the differences between series and parallel hybrids in regards to those hybrids.
In the Volt, an engine generates electricity for the battery pack which powers the drive train, which works in a series configuration versus the Prius, which works in a parallel configuration, meaning the battery and the engine can power the prius at the same time. Only the battery powers the Volt, even though it has two power sources.
That was the context of the conversation and the context to which I'm replying.
> Only the battery powers the Volt, even though it has two power sources.
This the statement I don't understand. Does the battery have separate plugs for input and output?
It must. In theory the engine could be pulled out of the Volt and it could function as an electric vehicle with a range of 40 miles. The engine only serves as an onboard generator to create extra electricity for the battery, but the engine never powers the Volt directly, it just maintains the battery's sweet spot.
This is strange. I do not see any reasons beyond this technical decision (definitely there should be some), but it does not sound good for me. The car should drive as long the gasoline engine works whatever the battery charge level.
A fundamental change in our driving habits is now required.
The Automobile Industry is going to be in the same position as the Airline Industry in the next few months. Unless we get away from gas combustion vehicles, including Hybrids, the automobile industry (as we know it) will die.We need to make drastic moves. America needs to move to ELECTRIC. The vehicles are not as fast, not always as fun to drive, but the move will save Americans money (Billions) and help bring change to our automotive companies. Let's "Be Green"!!!!!!!!!!!! BG Automotive Group Ltd. has a car that will travel 80-100 miles per charge for $15,995. Finally a car that most Americans can afford. Did you know that 80% of all drivers, drive less than 50 miles per day? This new car will cost an equivalent of $0.20-0.25 cents/gallon (depending on electricity rates in your area). Why send $700 Billion per year to OPEC (now buying up U.S. companies) when we can use this money for our schools, health care, social security for all Americans, etc, etc, etc. We can make the difference if WE change.
BG Automotive:
I agree with all that you say. We must make a change. The problem is that these changes will not happen by the will of the people in this case.
People are just to stupid and selfish to make that change. Just look around and you will realize few people are willing to make the change if for nothing else other than their pocketbooks. But even then, the situation will have to get MUCH MUCH worse in order for people to willingly make this change.
If you come to Los Angeles (or whatever major city you care to choose but LA is a good example), you immediately see people running around like mad in high powered cars...TONNES of them...G35's, G37's, 328i's, 335's, GTI's, WRX's, etc etc etc...250, 300, 400 HP cars all over the place. And they have no problems using this power from light to light, up ramps, hills, racing, etc, etc.
All you say is wonderful...to pay for schools, to pay for bettering our environment, to making ourselves healthier, better healthcare, etc..
But you know why it doesn't happen? Because people don't give a damn. I've said this many times before on this blog and Dahc has heard it many times too....these same douchebags who cry about their kids, their kids future, the schools, this, that ...blah blah blah...won't lift a finger when it comes to give up their toys. They don't care enough about their kids or their own welfare because they don't have to pay an immediate price for anything.
That's why people from all over the world come here to live...because no where else can you get away with not having to pay an immediate real price for your own actions and waste like you can get away with the USA.
Nozferatu and Dahcredyns, please, kill this marketing bullshit from AG-BG group!!! Most Americans has already changed their driving habits, just look at the typical highway, where 50+ percent of the drivers are using cruise control.
Dahcredyns: I think you are wrong in your definition of a series hybrids in the whole, and Volt, in particular. According to the common sense and Wikipedia:
"The generator both charges a battery and powers an electric motor that moves the vehicle. When large amounts of power are required, the motor draws electricity from both the batteries and the generator. A transmission may not be needed at all and if it is present it can be far less complex, as electric motors are efficient over a wide speed range. Some vehicle designs have separate electric motors for each wheel."
The Volt should and would solely run on a gasoline engine. The high price is probably due to the desire to make Volt profitable ASAP and partly to the battery cost.
What happens to the Tesla Roadster when you need to drive 306 miles?? It will be dead on the side of the road. All pure electric cars make great commuter cars, but CANNOT drive cross-country. Also, all pure electric cars have a battery with a built-in self discharge rate. All rechargable batteries do. The battery will die in a few weeks, even if not run. Plug-in hybrids with engines are the only solution that can be a commuter car, and a vacation/long trip car. I'm going to buy a plug-in hybrid, in 2010, that the manufacturer says will get 850 miles on 8 gallons of gas/E85/ethanol.
LROGERS:
I don't follow your argument...what if I want to go cross country with my current car? It gets 350 miles per tank. I still need to fill it up don't I? And if I miss a turn-off and no fill up for the next 50 miles?
The whole thing goes back to people changing the way they do things. Perhaps people should decent public transport for cross-country travels...trains? Etc? I'd love to travel cross country with a decent rail system. Who the hell needs a car?
I find it retarded that people buy SUV's for the same reasoning...they need a HUGE car to go camping, etc....yeah OK...so RENT A FREAKING SUV when you need one. The rest of the time, drive an electric car.
Don't you think 306 miles on one charge is sufficient to get you to and from work on an average for over a week without one drop of fuel? Isn't that good enough?
And this is only the beginning. Afford-ability of these new cars is the issue right now. That's the only area where hybrids will beat electric cars for now.
lb-
While GM engineers prefer to call the Volt an extended range electric vehicle - they hate the term series hybrid - I have them on record confirming that, technically, the Volt can be called a series hybrid. I think referencing Wikipedia, which is an unofficial source of information, is a poor decision.
A prius is considered a parallel hybrid largely because the battery and the engine can power the car at the same time in parallel using BOTH electricity and gasoline. This is not the case with the Volt, which utilizes a series configuration, meaning the Volt has only one source of power, electricity, all the time. Unlike the Prius, the Volt is NEVER directly powered by BOTH gasoline and electricity at the same time. That seems pretty common sense to me.
Nonetheless, what is the point?
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