2010: Year of the plug-in hybrid conversion?
A Plug-in hybrid converted by A123SystemsIn 2010 a number of plug-in hybrids will be hitting the streets of America. GM plans to launch both the Saturn Vue hybrid and the Chevy Volt, while Toyota will release a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius. A number of plug-ins from niche automakers might also become available in 2010. Unfortunately, GM plug-in hybrids will be available in very limited numbers the first few years and Toyota might only make their plug-ins available for fleet sales.
By 2010, however, a number of second generation Prius hybrids will be 6 plus years old. Obviously, these hybrid cars will still have a lot of life left in them, but what if the fuel economy of these hybrids could be more than doubled for less than $5,000?
Finish: 2010 - Year of the Plug-in Hybrid Conversion?
Labels: a123 systems, Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, plug-in hybrid vehicles, saturn vue hybrid, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:50 AM
11 Comments:
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In 2010 a number of plug-in hybrids will be hitting the streets of America. GM plans to launch both the Saturn Vue hybrid and the Chevy Volt, while Toyota will release a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius. A number of plug-ins from niche automakers might also become available in 2010. Unfortunately, GM plug-in hybrids will be available in very limited numbers the first few years and Toyota might only make their plug-ins available for fleet sales.
By 2010, however, a number of second generation Prius hybrids will be 6 plus years old. Obviously, these hybrid cars will still have a lot of life left in them, but what if the fuel economy of these hybrids could be more than doubled for less than $5,000?
If A123Systems, for example, is able to stick to its time line of plug-in conversion costs, converting a Prius into a plug-in Prius might well be below $5,000, and if a plug-in tax credit could be pushed through Congress, perhaps the price of these conversions could be even significantly lower.
And what would a company like A123 have to lose? Even subsidizing some costs for a few years could really prove both A123's nanophosphate-based lithium technology as well as their mass-production capabilities - probably the most critical issue limiting wide scale plug-in production.
Would your convert your hybrid to a plug-in hybrid for less than $5000, including a warranty? Isn't such a conversion worthy of tax incentives?
Could automakers not simply take the internal combustion engine out of the plug-in hybrids and make EVs? Putting two drive trains in one vehicle seems very heavy (read: wasteful).
I'd settle for a Prius that'll ride to 50-60 km. Maybe I'm the only one...
Another manufacturer we can add to the mix is Nissan, who will eschew the plug in route in favor of an all electric. Of course, it will be on the market in 2010...
From Nissan's CEO:
Ghosn has said Nissan would bring a pure EV to the US within 2 years, and he further went on to say “Everything that we develop, we develop for profits. We make money on all our cars. We do not have loss leaders.”
About Nissan, what is your take, daycredyns? I know this is your Hybrid Car Blog, but I would think that Nissan talking about mass produced EV's is somewhat game changing.
alcatholic-
bmw is going to have an electric vehicle in the US next year, but I don't think that's game changing. bmw can't keep up with mini supply, let alone mini EV supplies. in fact, there will probably be less than 1000 mini EVs per year for the first few years - if even that - coming out of BMW. but, back to nissan.
interestingly, toyota and nissan will share lithium battery supply chains. the fact that toyota isn't as EV-excited as Nissan says something in my opinion. you can add Honda to that sentiment as well.
today, every automaker has to say something. that's what nissan is now saying, something.
honestly, i think nissan will focus its ev efforts far more on a place like israel, rather than the us, for the first iterations of evs.
Right now, Nissan can say evs are the future, but if they only produce a few thousand evs for the US per year, even 100,000 evs per year, does it really mean anything?
next year, toyota will produce 500,000 prius hybrids. it took over 10 years to develop that supply chain. thus, i just don't see nissan having the supply chains necessary to produce a noteworthy amount of evs for several more years, maybe even a decade, maybe more. plus, it will take at least a decade for nissan evs, or any other ev maker, to achieve anything but marginal profits on evs.
nissan and every major automaker knows this. still, as stated above, ghosn has to say something. that's his job as ceo. convince shareholders and potential shareholders that nissan has a future.
wallah, nissan will dominate the ev future. on what grounds and experience?
plus, if you had to invest all your money in an automaker's future plans, would you pick nissan?
i wouldn't. not by a long shot.
ultimately, yes, i'd buy a small ev with limited range for $20,000, but, honestly, i don't think most americans would, not yet, not even close. yet, it is mass market production that drives every major automaker.
case in point, most americans are interested in hybrids, as long as they don't cost more. thus, the idea of paying more upfront for an ev with very limited range, especially compared to consumer expectations, is something no major automaker is going to bet the farm on despite what ghosn says.
until i see more walking from nissan, i'll continue to think this is just talking the talk.
jocelyn-
currently the chevy volt plug-in hybrid is more affected by aerodynamics than weight in terms of range, so i'm not sure that i agree with your analysis.
likewise, most americans at least, according to study after study, are not content with the range of current evs, especially with their higher upfront costs.
to have a little less EV range, but unlimited extended range seems a far better value proposition for most american consumers.
granted, perhaps today's world politics and high gas prices could make americans completely rethink the way they think about automobiles, but I don't think there is any analytical data to support such a belief.
would you bet a multibillion dollar business's future on such an unsupported supposition?
Thanks, Dahcredyns. Solid take on Nissan, and I have to agree with you.
After I posted my comment, I somewhere read that Ghosn clarified that they were only talking about 100's of EV's at first. So there you go, right again.
If you want the conversion today a company in Berkeley, 3Prong Power,
www.3prongpower.com can convert your Prius to a plug-in for under $7,000. You don't have to wait till the car companies do it.
What will be the increase cost to my electric bill? I understand the batteries are lethal in a wreck to you and to responders. Is the Hybrid car a throw away after 5 years? Are car manufactures now ey in the business to sell extended warranties? I bet they won't lease them. Who would buy a used one? I understand the battery terminals are a big problem and require maintenance not covered by waranty. Is the battery cost over $5000.00? How about electric system? All my recharable batteries perform less with every charge and give up in a year. Look at your car battery and see the damage it does to the metal around it.
the increase to your electric bill will largely depend on when you charge your vehicle. at night, it would be cheaper to charge than to fill up with gas.
in terms of batteries, it sounds like lots of urban legends.
hybrids have now been around for 10 years. most of the first hybrids have batteries that have lasted well over 100,000 miles, even 150,000 miles. and today's technology is better.
likewise, provide data on one hybrid accident where the battery hurt either the driver or the first responders. there are safety mechanisms.
on the other hand, its easy to find stories of car drivers dying in fireballs caused by gasoline. so exchanging batteries for gasoline doesn't seem more dangerous to me. in fact, it seems less dangerous.
I would update my prius and my husband plans to buy a hybrid truck from toyota as soon as it is available. We are already saving for a down payment and hope it is available in 2010.
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