Friday, May 30, 2008

Oil glut 2011: A real hybrid killa?

Hybrid demand: Oil giveth, oil taketh away?

Just finished watching some great CNBC coverage on oil and it really made me hone in on two thoughts. First, oil traders have not factored the possibility of hurricanes into the current price of oil. So, if a hurricane hits the Gulf, expect jumps in gas prices. If a hurricane hits hard, plan on moth-balling your car for a few months. Second, most oil experts believe that an oil glut is inevitable once oil companies begin converting dirtier oil resources into refined product, though many predict such a glut is still 2 to 3 years away. Ironically, that potential oil glut could coincide quite nicely with the first generation of plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Will a $40,000 Chevy Volt, for example, still resonate with consumers if oil takes a big hit and gas prices suddenly drop significantly?

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4 Comments:

Blogger Indigo said...

I don't think a temporary oil price decrease will kill hybrids. Even if oil production somehow goes way up, Big Oil is never going to "pass the savings on to the customer".

It really does bother me a lot when I hear conservatives talk about converting incredibly dirty resources like oil shale. Some of these reserves are ruinous to the environment. I'd rather pay high gas prices and drive less.

The ultraconservatives are almost always fundamentalist Christians too, who seem to believe that God told them to wreck the planet so Jesus would come back. As a Wiccan, I can tell you that the Earth is a precious gift and we are to be its caretakers, not its rapists.

3:27 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

I don't think a temporary oil price reduction would kill conventional hybrids, which should be even more cost-effective compared to gas vehicles in price then, but I think it could slow interest in more expensive plug-in hybrid vehicles.

While I agree generally with your conservative-oil connection, I know far too many liberals that share your opinion, but still drive gas-guzzlers. There is plenty of blame to go around.

8:44 AM  
Anonymous angrd said...

sure oil is dirty, but let's be a little bit more open-minded.

if oil had not been developed as the resource it is today, what would be left? wood and coal?

imagine all the deforestation that would have happened if wood, instead of oil, continued to be a primary energy source 100 years ago.

yes, we need to work ourselves off oil, but a little perspective is in order, isn't?

11:06 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

wood? hmmm. i really haven't thought about that angle. obviously, deforestation is a hugely important issue.

still, in the early days of the automobile, auto-innovators, such as Ford, were not too fond of oil, which they found to be dirty. ford, i've read many times, was very interested in biofuels.

it's interesting that oil and the marijuana scare occurred almost simultaneously. i'm not trying to defend marijuana, but hemp, which looks just like marijuana, might have been the ultimate biofuel resource. in many areas of the world hemp can grow quickly without fertilizer, without pesticides, even without any irrigation.

instead, today, biofuels are chemical and water hogs.

so, i agree some perspective is in order, but i'm not sure that justifies the oil world we live in today.

11:18 AM  

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