Friday, February 01, 2008

Willl you buy a $40,000 Volt in 2011?

Worth $40,000?

By 2011, according to Jonathon Lauckner, GM's VP for global program management, GM will be building 10's of thousands of Chevy Volts. Still, GM is hoping to debut the Chevy Volt by 2010, but the cost will be closer to $40,000, rather than $30,000 and that might not even include the battery lease. Read more....

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26 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'll buy one as soon as they let me. Shoot, I'll buy two, and they can charge me $50,000 apiece.

Just build them. I will come!

GM Forever!

8:03 AM  
Anonymous Leroy Brown said...

$40k is ridiculous. So many more people would be interested at $30k, and the volume would help bring the price down. So even if GM loses money for the first year or two, they will eventually make the Volt profitable and insanely popular by pricing it low at first.

9:14 AM  
Blogger Dennis said...

What if Toyota brings out a Plug-in Prius that can go 10-12 miles for about $23k-$25k? That will cover all your short trips. Any trip over 12 miles, you'll be jumping on the highway and rather use the gas engine.

9:34 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Leroy-

I think you're right that a $30,000 Volt would be impossible to keep in stock because of smoking-hot demand.

Still, I'd bet at $40,000 - if that price includes the cost of the battery - GM is STILL losing money on the Volt, at least on the first million or so.

9:49 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Dennis-

I agree. I don't think the Volt is the perfect solution, at least not the first generation.

If lithium, or some other development, could result in a 80 mpg Prius (not a plug-in) with a price of $20,000, then such a hybrid might steal the show.

Nonetheless, I think GM is aware of this pricing challenge, thus the Saturn Vue plug-in, dual mode hybrids, etc.. Even the E Flex Drive - platform of the Volt - includes a non-plug-in hybrid option.

Ultimately, there will be plenty of room for competition, and that's great because it will create many great choices for consumers.

9:56 AM  
Blogger Jabroni said...

I would also buy two. I honestly hope GM actually produces the car.

11:07 AM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

I'd also buy one. Of course, I'd also buy the Vue plug-in or a Prius plug-in as well.

And I honestly believe that GM will produce both the Volt and the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid. Having interviewed all of the major engineers and designers working on the Volt, I can say that everyone of them realizes the significance of the Volt for GM and America and each one of them is a passionate advocate of the Volt.

Unfortunately, these people don't run GM, so there will always be some risk that the new GM will act like the GM of old.

11:29 AM  
Blogger Dennis said...

Dahcredyns-

2-mode adds $8k (seen in Tahoe Hybrid) with NiMH HEV pack. With Lithium PHEV battery pack, the price will probably be more than $10k on top of $21k standard Saturn Vue, you are looking at $31k + Vue PHEV.

1:22 PM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

Hey Dennis-

I don't try to get too literal when it comes to hybrid costs. There are all kinds of accounting games being played when it comes to the MSRP of hybrids.

Still, the hybrid costs of a dual mode Vue should be a little less, minimally, than the Tahoe, simply because the electric motors and battery pack will probably be a little smaller than the Tahoe.

It's the plug-in costs that are even harder to predict.

For example, A123Systems won't sell a single battery pack at the cost they charge for Hymotion conversions - that price is only for fleet sales.

If you talk to others in the battery game, they say A123 is underpricing their product as a positioning move - even at the fleet price. So, the real cost of lithium is still sketchy.

But that's just the beginning.

The thermodynamics of the NiMH battery pack in GM's dual mode hybrids are child's play compared to the large battery backs of plug-in hybrids using lithium. Creating the software and other redundancies to manage the thermodyanimcs of lithium plug-in hybrids in every driving state imaginable is going to cost a lot in terms of engineering.

How do you put a price on that?

Again, the pricing of hybrids is an exercise in creative accounting. Thus, it will be very interesting to see how all this pricing plays out.

Then there is the battery lease that GM has been considering.

Still, if GM can keep the price of a plug-in Vue around $31,000, including any battery lease/cost, I'd say that would be coupe - maybe even a steal.

My gut feeling for a phev Vue is $35,000 - though I hope I'm wrong.

2:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd really love to buy the Volt but unfortunately $40k for a car is out of range for an average consumer. Even if it is priced that much it's going to be targeting a specific customer with money. Unfortunately i think for most families this car is out of their price range. Besides for that much wouldn't you rather be driving a bmw or mercedes? I'm a toyota fan but I really would like to support the American made product but with the price of this vehicle and the question of logevity I think I'll have to pass till I start making over $120k a year. Who knows when that will be. Wouldn't it be cool to see this style with Toyota technology? Sounds so so sweet and affordable!!

5:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you give it the range of 500 miles and speeds of 130 plus. Yes. P.S. good luck with the range,I understand!

11:49 PM  
Blogger guidance_needed said...

No, I'm interested in saving money. Spending $40,000 for 50% better mileage would take years to recover my investment. I would rather spend $10,000 for a electric only car for general transportation vehicle that would cover 90% of my needs. I was hoping GM was building a car for more than 10% of the population. It appears you are targeting early adopters and the rich.
The foreign manufactures will continue to eat you lunch. You just make it to easy for them.

5:32 PM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

guidance_needed-

I really think you're onto the key issue. I've maintained for sometime that GM needed a Prius-killer, or at least a competitor, a couple of years ago.

At best, GM is still 2 years away from any Prius competitor - a lithium-powered Malibu hybrid or the Chevy Volt.That just isn't cutting the mustard.

While I'm still hopeful about the Volt, it's still 2-3 years away from reality, and it will still be too expensive for several more years after that.

For me, cheap hybrid cars are the best hybrid offering today - the Prius makes that pretty clear. Yet, it seems GM really won't have a small, cheap hybrid car for several more years - if ever. That's a huge mistake in my opinion.

12:38 PM  
Blogger caltel said...

Thanks...

Caltel
Article

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6:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There are several high end all electric cars now that would blow the socks off of a volt. From Styling, handling,lower maintenance and the price tag for those are $75K I would rather have an all eletric that goes 0 to 60 in 4 seconds than any US made car.

11:11 PM  
Blogger Dahcredyns said...

what about a tesla?

10:42 AM  

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