A Prius shortage caused by lithium?
How could Toyota let there be a shortage of hybrids?If hybrid cars are the future, one would assume selling as many hybrids as soon as possible would be smart because it's the quickest path to economies of scale. Some even argue it's the best path to lithium and plug-in hybrids as well.
So, why is Toyota claiming that a Toyota Prius shortage is possible?
Could it be lithium? Is lithium forcing NiMH battery manufacturers to scale back their NiMH manufacturing in favor of lithium-ion research and development? Believe it or not, but has Toyota actually perfected the lithium battery for the third generation Toyota Prius and the third generation Hybrid Synergy Drive? Read more.....
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, lithium battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:53 AM
5 Comments:
They have their Lexus "H" line that makes better margins from the same components. Where would you use your limited quantities?
Lithium is more of a technological constraint, not a manufacturing volume one.
If you put lithium in the Lexus, then others would question why not in the Prius. It would be very hard for Toyota, from a PR point of view, to put lithium in a all Lexus models, but not the Prius.
I also disagree that lithium is a technological constraint. I think that's a possiblity, but I'm starting to believe lithium chemistry is more about proprietary profits than safety.
Battery execs from Toyota's battery partnership have never claimed the thermodynamics of lithium couldn't be managed when speaking to the problems associated with putting lithium in hybrids, their focal point has always been manufacturing.
Essentially, they've argued that today's lithium manufacturing is too open to the possibility of small corruptions in cell integrity that might lead to unavoidable thermodynamic events in lithium-powered hybrids. And, just like GM, Toyota isn't going to risk this possibility, and why should they when every other automakers is so far behind in hybrid sales?
Even GM, says the battery technology of today, is workable with an effective Battery Management System - which isn't easy to develop, but is an engineering possibility even for battery intensive hybrids like the Volt.
Still, even GM won't sell the Volt unless it can be 100% gauranteed safe in terms of lithium.
For a lithium-powered Prius - a non-plug-in - the sweet spot of the lithium battery is much easier to maintain than in a vehicle like the Volt. It is known that Toyota has been working with lithium in the the Third Generation Hybrid Synergy Drive for a couple of years now.
Thus, I don't have any doubts that the technological constrains of a lithium-powered Prius - using guaranteed cells - were worked out some time ago.
I think the problem is purely cost-related due to the extra steps and redundancies that battery makers have to go through when building lithium cells to guarantee their integrity.
If you say the lithium
is not a technological
constraint;
Of course it is when
you can not control the
cell integrity itself.
If you can not control them;
no use making them.
Sounds just like
nuclear fusion
Yes, yes, lithium is somewhat volatile if it overheats.
Kinda like gasoline huh?
In the end there is no method of storing a huge amount of potential energy (such as gasoline's 500 man hours per gallon) in a small space (like the trunk of a car) without that substance being pretty f'n volatile. Period.
As for cell integrity, its not that cell integrity can't be managed - it's that cell integrity is hard to guarantee, from a manufacturing point of view, when millions of cells are being mass-produced, which is the only way to make them cost-effective.
While I don't really like the gasoline/lithium analogy, I agree with the point.
If manufacturers can guarantee cell integrity, then automakers can manage lithium inside the car.
Lithium is not a technological constraint for automakers, but possibly for battery makers - that was my point. Again, I'm not sure that lithium is a technological constraint for manufacturers. I think proprietary chemistry might also be part of the "constraint".
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