Will Americans really buy plug-in hybrids?
Would consumers flock to 100 mpg $30,000 plug-in Prius hybrids?In several recent posts, I've made some negative statements regarding plug-in hybrid vehicles. So, have I changed my mind about something I've called a revolutionary technology?
No. I'm still a huge advocate of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Still, I'm a bigger fan of lithium than of plug-in hybrids. Ultimately, I have serious concerns about the electric grid in terms of reliability, security and greenness. Thus, a lithium hybrid with some kind of capacitor might actually make better sense in terms of fuel economy, cost, emissions, etc - at least for some drivers. Finish.....
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota camry hybrid, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
11:02 AM
1 Comments:
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In several recent posts, I've made some negative statements regarding plug-in hybrid vehicles. So, have I changed my mind about something I've called a revolutionary technology?
No. I'm still a huge advocate of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Still, I'm a bigger fan of lithium than of plug-in hybrids. Ultimately, I have serious concerns about the electric grid in terms of reliability, security and greenness. Thus, a lithium hybrid with some kind of capacitor might actually make better sense in terms of fuel economy, cost, emissions, etc - at least for some drivers.
Still, if plug-in hybrids ended foreign oil dependency without any reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, that's still a huge win, and one I could easily support. The savings from no longer having to secure foreign oil dependency could then help develop a cleaner grid.
Of course, politicians would mess that transfer of money into pork and corn, no doubt.
In reality, my chagrin with plug-in hybrids really isn't about the vehicles, it's predominantly with consumers and with Congress.
Today, the Toyota Prius and the Toyota Camry hybrid provide a cost-effective option for consumers to significantly fight foreign oil dependence and global warming emission. Not only are these vehicles cost effective if you own them for a little over 4 years, they are a smart financial move if you own them for more than 5 years and an excellent hedge against high gas prices. And, if you commute regularly in an urban area, these hybrids can become a smart financial move even earlier.
And that's without tax credits.
Yet, while a significant percent of Americans have expressed serious interest in hybrid vehicles - more than 60 percent according to Mike Jackson's AutoNation, just 2 percent actually backup this interest with a purchase. Certainly, not all hybrids are as cost effective as Toyota's two leading hybrids, so that could be a big part of the problem. Nonetheless, a significant percent of Prius buyers make more than $100,000 per year of combined income. The average American family makes far less than that amount.
Perhaps if Congress extended Toyota's tax credits, many more Americans would choose a Camry hybrid, rather than a conventional Camry, or a Highlander hybrid, rather than a conventional Highlander. Or, the Prius would become more affordable for average income families.
Unfortunately, Congress would rather tell people and automakers what they can't do, rather than inspiring and incentivizing them to do what the should do.
Hence, even though many have expressed interest in plug-in hybrid vehicles, I think most express that interest with one major caveat - they want the plug-in hybrid to cost almost exactly as much as their conventional vehicle of choice. That just isn't going to happen with the first few generations of plug-in hybrids.
Certainly, there are many hardcore plug-in fans that will buy such hybrids. The interest in the Chevy Volt, for example, demonstrates this pent up demand. Still, I cannot help but be skeptical when it comes to consumers and Congress doing the right thing.
It seems these days, many American are very concerned with issues like global warming. Yet, it seems few Americans are really doing anything. Like politicians, consumers talk the talk, but when it comes time to take action, they flop. I fear that if there is a price premium for plug-in hybrids that requires the same sort long term thinking as today's hybrids, there will be a lot more flip-flopping with average consumers.
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