Thursday, May 24, 2007

Diesels to outgrow hybrids?

A Mercedes clean diesel vehicle

"Ricardo forecasts that combined diesel and hybrid gasoline will represent 15 percent of the U.S. light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels outstripping gasoline hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million. UBS highlights that European automakers and a number of global suppliers look set to benefit from the diesel trend."

I like a good clean diesel vehicle, but they are still no hybrid. Yes, in terms of costs, diesels are competitive to hybrids - at least with today's hybrid technology. Will that still be the case when lithium enters the hybrid powertrain? Inevitably, each new generation of hybrid vehicles will continue to become more fuel efficient and cheaper, and if plug-in hybrids are developed, can diesel really compete?

In the short term, clean diesel is a fine choice. Ultimately, however, the best future for diesel is as a diesel hybrid.

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