100 mpg Prius versus the Volt electric: The great war of 2010?
Is the Volt a Prius killer? Will GM's plug-in hybrid leave Toyota's hybrids behind?The Chevy Volt electric plug-in hybrid is an amazing vehicle, an amazing concept vehicle, but the Toyota Prius is an amazing production vehicle. Still, if GM were able to produce the Volt, would it be a Prius killer?
If today's Prius faced tomorrow's Volt, of course the Volt would electrocute the Prius, however, tomorrow's Volt will face tomorrow's Prius. So what do we know about these hybrids of the future?
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Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, fuel economy, GM, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota, toyota prius, yukon hybrid
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:04 AM
21 Comments:
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According to GM the Volt electric could recharge on electricity every night for 6 hours and provide 40 miles of pure electric fuel. At 60 miles per day and with the assistance of a conventional fuel, the Volt could achieve up to 150 mpg. After 60 miles, the fuel efficiency continually drops to about 50 mpg until it reaches its end range of around 600 miles.
Since the majority of Americans drive 60 miles per day or less, the Volt offers extreme fuel economy for the bulk of America's commuting needs.
On the other hand, numerous reports have leaked from unconfirmed Toyota sources that indicate that Toyota is now working on a 100 mpg+ Prius. This isn't a plug-in hybrid; this is a conventional Prius using next generation hybrid technology, such as lithium-ion batteries.
So, how is Toyota achieving 100 mpg without plug-in technology? I have no idea, but if the report is true, this breakthrough is nothing short of revolutionary, and it's possibly occurring right now.
One must then ask, could Toyota add a plug-in option? Would a plug-in option push the fuel economy of this next generation Prius far beyond 100 mpg - at least in terms of a daily commute? At a solid 100 mpg, would a plug-in option even be necessary?
Inevitably, there are too many details and possibilities that still have to be resolved regarding these two vehicles before this question of 'prius killer' can be answered, even asked. Moreover, it is possible that the Volt might never be a production vehicle. At NAIAS, Bob Lutz admitted a 10 percent chance that battery technology will never achieve the ability to fulfill the needs of the Volt.
Other critics have even called the Volt a mere publicity stunt. After several discussions with a number of GM execs at NAIAS - including Lutz - it seemed obvious to me that the Volt is far from a publicity stunt.
My only concern with GM and the Volt is the question of whether GM is moving fast enough towards this technology. Disappointingly, GM has still not sold one full hybrid vehicle in the U.S. thus far, yet the Yukon hybrid looks ready to go. So, what's the hold up?
Why care about the Yukon? While the dual mode hybrid powertrain of the Yukon has little to do with the Volt, it still helps push the evolution in technology needed for the Volt. GM's first scheduled plug-in hybrid will utilize the dual mode hybrid powertrain, not the E Flex Drive. Nevertheless, GM's first plug-in hybrids will help develop the batteries required for the Volt and its E Flex Drive.
Hence the more hybrids GM sells, the easier the ramp up to the Volt.
Ultimately, if GM is absolutely serious about the Volt and the E Flex Drive, then I believe GM can challenge the Prius and Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive. Will the Volt be a Prius killer though?
I doubt it, but it's far too early to tell how the match up between the Volt and Toyota's next generation hybrid technology will compare. Ultimately, it seems the Volt and the Prius, the E Flex Drive and the Hybrid Synergy Drive, will be two similar, but different skins of the same advanced technology onion (More on the E Flex Drive versus Hybrid Synergy Drive).
Consequently, if the Volt and the 100 mpg Prius can meet in 2010, I don't think either will kill the other - there will be plenty of room and demand for both vehicles. More important, if the 100 mpg Prius is already being tested, GM better make the Volt happen as fast as possible.
The Volt versus the Prius. That's the war the world would love to have come true.
Toyota isn't doing plug-ins because of the battery life issue. All of the sudden, the FUD we hear today about how you have to replace the batteries every few years would actually be true.
Without revolutionary, not evolutionary, battery improvements; plug-ins aren't coming to the consumer market. Period. You'd need a battery about ten times the weight of the one in the Prius, given current technology, to have the plug-in capacity and still maintain the 30-70% charge band.
the Volt looks and sounds amazing. Hard to beat the Prius as a solidified urban status symbol. I recently posted a blog regarding transportation in LA and the trendy-ness of the Toyota Prius. check it out! ps. i love your blog
Do you consider lithium ion batteries to be a 'revolutionary' improvement ? They are being tested extensively, and it looks like one of the new electrode solutions will be the home run we need. A123Systems, Sapphire, I've heard of about a dozen companies all with 'good enough' technologies for auto batteries. They are just working on discharge power, charging speeds, and total charging cycles. The chemistries and module designs are being constantly improved and tested. Tesla (company) already has a working car based on the older lithium ion battery chemistries, and engineered the modules to compensate.
Give it a few more years, the tweaking and testing will pay off, and the newest lithium ion batteries will give us a truly impressive next generation of hybrids (2010 at the latest).
And the newest ultra capacitors will be icing on the cake, allowing extremely efficient fast recovery of braking energy.
The results might be revolutionary, but the engineering is definitely incremental evolution. It is coming.
Robert-
Thanks for the post.
You reminded me of just how revolutionary I believe is lithium. Sure it's going to be incremental, but even the first step will be phenomenal compared to conventional vehicles. Even just a 25 percent increase in Hybrid Synergy Drive fuel economy at the same cost - or even less - is very significant.
By just the second generation of lithium hybrids, the conventional vehicle might be a dead-vehicle driving. The internal combustion engine might be a dead-engine guzzling.
Imagine selling 100,000 lithium powered Prii. Suddenly, lithium might be cost-effective.
Imagine how that not only benefits hybrid technology, but plug-in hybrid technology and electric vehicle technology – not to mention alternative energies, such as solar and wind power.
That's revolutionary.
Hopefully, we'll use this power to end foreign oil dependency, rather than just creating bigger and more powerful energy consuming vehicles.
Fifty years from now history and economics classes might not look back upon this age as the Internet or Computer Revolution, but rather they will look back upon how computers and the Internet were the beginning of the Lithium Revolution.
Here is why it's possible
Link
Battery life issue? Toyota has already produced the RAV 4 EV capable of 120 miles or so range and over 100,000 miles with Panasonic EV-95 NiMH batteries. That battery is all the revolution we need.
GM made an EV1 with a 140 to 160 mile range using NiMH batteries but now they say that 40 miles in a Volt is maybe doable and maybe not? I guess auto makers think the public is a bunch of morons to believe that plug in hybrids are so difficult to make. Today, the Volt could be made today with a 300 to 350 pound NiMH battery pack that would meets GM's battery requirements.
So the real question becomes, "Why aren't reporters asking the auto manufacturers the reason for not using NiMH today?" We have had the batteries AND the technology for 10 years, but are constantly told that they need three more years. Personally, I am sick and tired of excuses and delays and simply want production.
I Don't care what GM says the Volt will do. Their track record speaks for itself. I purchased a "Truck of the year" S-10 several years ago and was promptly innundated with five different recalls. To use the names "GM" and "Toyota" in the same sentence is blasphemous!
Funny, if Toyota can make a 100mpg prius, what is the potential if that same car incorporates plug-in technology? Back to the subject of GM's Volt, despite the fact that GM shoulders blame for killing previous plug-in technology, they are making a significant u-turn with the Volt. It isn't just a concept car since it is set for production in '09. What makes it special is the choice the buyer has to select a motor based on different liquid fuels: biodiesel, E85, gas (yuk), or (in the future) hydrogen. Prius can't make that claim. At least Volt will be able to run on alternative fuels.
Volt can supposedly be driven strictly on electrical charge for moderate distances (about 40 miles). An owner who incorporates solar panels or wind generation at his/her home can effectively offset any electrical charge used by the car, which could easily make the car carbon neutral.
I have been a lifetime fan of Toyota and hater of GM, but if Volt works the way GM touts (a big IF), then it will represent a huge positive change and will place them atop the leader board for 'green' car design.
David,
I think you touch on the key point. The Volt represents an important change in the way GM does business. Even though I think GM will have ample opportunity to screw up the Volt, I endorse hyping the Volt. It seems to me that the more buzz the Volt creates, the more pressure it puts on GM to deliver - not just a Volt, but a cost-effective Volt.
Similarly, GM stiving towards the Volt puts pressure on Toyota to keep pushing its hybrid technology, so I think its a win-win for consumers.
The Prius is not the greatest eather, but it is a start. Competition? What competition? Volt it NOT on the road or even the production lines. Until it is, there is no challenge yet. It is just an idea in the building stage.
Will it be as good as the Prius? Who knows, a lot can change in time. The intresting matter is that auto industries keep entertaining hybrid idea. They need to drop the hybrid idea and completely ween the auto industry off of fossel fuels all together.
The oil bottle IS running rather dry now a days.
The problem with the electric auto is that auto companies keep trying to build a battery that can replace the gas tank. It can not be done. Never has, dont today, never will.
Whats the answer? You may ask.
First off, the auto industry is trying to use electric motors to drive the vehicle. Directly from the batteries, in such a way that the batteries must assume to be the primary energy source that powers everything in the car, including the power plant that drives it.
Bad idea. Ever heard of a dynamo?
It works just the same as an alternator in a modern car engine.
One should use a dynamo as the primary energy source with a capacitor to boot electric charges from a secondary energy source, wich is where the batteries should come into play. Therefore, the batteries will not be drained dead in such a short time. The extra jolt of juice from the capacitor is all that will be needed to offset the difference between what the dynamo puts out, and what the Motor consumes. The only purpose of the batteries is to keep the capacitor charged, and run the electronics elsewhere in the car.
An inertia flywheel could be incorporated into the system to over come drain burdens like take offs, stops, and abrupt changes in velocities.
With a dynamo coupled with a motor the drain on the batteries would be greatly reduced, thus extending there charge and perhaps if done right, would not need to be recharged at any place like home or a station on the road side.
Not only would this be a better sytem to use, but if the battery cells were to be individualy removable like a pull out car sterio, then one could simply pull and replace such cells at a station like buying a 2 liter bottle of soda, or like buying and changeing then cells like batteries for your flashlights. Then they would be easly recycled at every service station.
You can already buy 12 volt lead-acid batteries everywhere, even at most service stations. Why not make the cells individual so even the ladies can handle them with ease, and just sell the cells at every station too. Not much modifications needed here on this idea.
The idea here is, simply take what you already have, and make it easy to work with, I mean think about the gas, how much more/less of a hassel is it, to pull into a service station and prepay for fuel, go out and pump it, and then go. The same could be as easy for single cell purchese. Like, pull up, pull it out, buy, plug it in, and go. Only what cells you need.
How many would you need? no more then 6-12. This may sound like a lot, but remember, there just single 2 volt cells each. if they were 3 volt each, then only 4-8, 6 volt would be only 2-4.
Also, with a dynamo, stops for this would be very few times, like maybe 2-4 times a month, about what you would normally do for gas.
Think people, Think. It is not that hard to do as the auto industries would have you to believe it is.
The 100mpg number is not based on american MPG testing methods. It is based on Japan's testing method, which always leads to numbers twice as high. According to Japan the 2008 Prius gets 87 MPG.
Read this:
"Hold the champagne, however. Japan's 10.15 mileage cycle is now an old system, far from relevant to global standards, and especially kind to hybrids. (The cycle enables hybrids to run on electric-only power for extended periods, which helps deliver wondrous fuel-mileage numbers.)
Different markets around the world have their own take on exactly how green and frugal the Prius actually is. For example, the U.S. rates the 2008 Toyota Prius at a far more realistic 48 mpg city/45 mpg highway and 46 mpg combined, numbers not so far removed from those attained by diesel-powered cars.
While Japan's 10.15 mode isn't perfect, it does give an idea of the kind of efficiency improvements we can expect with the next Prius (about 10 percent). If so, the EPA's combined mpg for the 2010 Prius might exceed 50 mpg, a magic number in the imagination of American drivers."
I really think that GM has got it completely wrong (again). There is no way in the world that plug-in hybrids are going to become popular.
First of all, people are lazy; they don't want to be bothered with extra steps such as plugging in their car each night, or whenever.
Secondly, I think it seems to have escaped many folks that a huge portion of the population don't even have their own driveway, let alone a garage to park and charge their vehicles at home. There are millions of people who park their cars in the street at night; I simply don't see how plug-in technology could ever work for these people.
Those are good points Zippy.
In the long run, groups like Project Better Place are developing solutions for people that can't plug-in at home, so that getting electric fuel would be no different than getting liquid fuel.
Still, how long will that take? What surcharges does that add to the cost of electricity?
If you're interested in revolutionary battery technology, google "nano safe battery" from Altair nano. Specifically, look up the Lightning GT. I hope you'll be amazed. I know I am. They claim thousands of discharge cycles (resulting in an estimated 12 year lifespan in a vehicle) and can be charged in a variety of ways, including a ten minute quick charge using an external charge station.
With all these stories about hybrids, how come you don't see almost anything about the Honda’s "new" diesel Accord 2.2 i-CTDi Sport? In 2004, it posted 92 mpg!
http://world.honda.com/news/2004/4040506.html
Greg,
As soon as they start selling it, or offer plans to, in the US i'll start responding to it.
Sorry. Volt is a decent idea but not some wonderful mindblowing concept that some misguided giddy people are making it out to be. First of all, electric is NOT an answer to anything. Some form of Hybrid is. Either gas hybrid or the ultimate hydrogen hybrid. All electric will never fly with consumers. Why? The real issue of range will always come up. Volt will also take gas not to power the car but to charge up the battery. Bad concept overall. Prius will massacre the Volt... in the beginning and in the long run.
I don't agree with that at all.
I do agree, however, that hydrogen, or possibly methanol, fuel cell vehicles are better than EVs. I also think that PHEVs are a better idea than range extended EVs.
Still, as consumers become more wise to alternative technologies and alternative forms of transportation, especially in cities, I think EVs based around Project Better Places business model will make sense for many consumers.
I just saw a plug-in Prius last night at the garage I park in. It's was plugged into an outlet and parked in a space for plug-in cars only.
That's cool. I've seen a number of plug-in Prii over the years. In fact, I've even seen Hymotion convert a Prius into a plug-in Prius a few times.
Can't wait until Toyota actually starts selling Toyota-manufactured Prius plug-ins. Not too much longer!
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