2010: The end of the hybrid vehicle hoax
So, Hyundai has claimed that around 2010 the hybrid vehicle will begin to become the standard powertrain for automobiles. GM has claimed the future is electric, but the electric future is dependant upon lithium-ion batteries about 3 - 4 years away from full production reality. As hybrid electrics offer greater range than purely electric vehicles, one must assume - as GM has also indicated - that an electric future also means many more hybrid vehicles. Besides, a full hybrid powertrain generates electricity, so why wouldn't you utilize that capability?
Nissan, another hybrid naysayer, is now pursuing a joint venture to develop lithium-ion batteries for their new line of hybrids set to launch around 2010. Why?
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Nissan, another hybrid naysayer, is now pursuing a joint venture to develop lithium-ion batteries for their new line of hybrids set to launch around 2010. Why?
(Full Story)
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, lithium battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:07 AM
3 Comments:
(Rest of Story)
Recently, Roland Jones of MSNBC asked if hybrid vehicles were losing their appeal, to which I answered NO! However, if Mr. Jones is correct, why would Nissan pursue such a venture if hybrids are already over?
The truth is, hybrid vehicles are expensive and they are not ready for the masses - not yet. If they were, Toyota would offer every model they sell as a hybrid option. Even Toyota, the hybrid leader, simply hasn't been able to find enough hybrid parts to produce enough hybrid vehicles to meet demand until just recently (And if Toyota still qualified for the full hybrid tax credit, they probably still wouldn't be able to meet demand).
Inevitably, hybrids are simply an emerging technology. As of today, hybrids don't make financial sense - I admit it. Still, if you predict the technological future based on today's technology and the costs of today's technology, well, then you are already a dinosaur.
Years ago, when computers were an emerging technology - even as the Commodore 64 hit the market - most consumers simply couldn't afford one. Now most consumers can. In fact, most consumers can now afford incredibly powerful laptop computers harnessing the power of the Internet wherever they go. Yet, just a decade ago, this seemed very unlikely.
Just five years ago, the majority of people didn't even use cell phones, now it seems everyone has at least one.
Technology advances, and the more it advances, the faster it advances. Still, it takes time for emerging technologies to develop. It takes economies of scale to bring prices down far enough so that consumers can afford the new technology and that corporations can profit from the new technologies.
Ironically, however, the same lithium technology driving the computer and cell phone explosion will probably also drive the hybrid vehicle explosion.
Today, the buyers of hybrid cars are simply early adopters. We are still in the beta version of hybrid technology and we probably will be until about 2010.
If not for 9/11, a second War in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, massive global warming attention and $3.00 gas, hybrid vehicles wouldn't even been on the radar of most consumers today. Yet, had these events not happened, Toyota would still be developing hybrids.
Why?
Why would Toyota waste, minimally, 100's of millions of dollars on a technology that had no chance to succeed? Why did Toyota continue to develop hybrid technology as other automakers called them foolish? Is Toyota really that stupid? Is that what pushed Toyota from complete obscurity to possibly the world's biggest, most profitable automaker in just a few decades?
By 2010, as battery technology advances, hybrid vehicles will be at least twice as efficient as today, yet hybrid parts will be - relative to inflation - cheaper than today. Those kinds of economics will make crystal clear sense to consumers. Additionally, plug-in hybrid technology might offer not just the ability to end foreign oil dependency, but the ability to end oil dependency for most Americans, except for those driving very long distances.
Around 2010, hybrid vehicles will begin changing everything - without fuel cells, without hydrogen, even without ethanol. Of course, hybrids can also help develop fuel cells and alternative fuels, such as hydrogen or ethanol.
Quote:
The Toyota Prius has become the flagship car for those in our society so environmentally conscious that they are willing to spend a premium to show the world how much they care. Unfortunately for them, their ultimate ‘green car’ is the source of some of the worst pollution in North America; it takes more combined energy per Prius to produce than a Hummer.
Before we delve into the seedy underworld of hybrids, you must first understand how a hybrid works. For this, we will use the most popular hybrid on the market, the Toyota Prius.
The Prius is powered by not one, but two engines: a standard 76 horsepower, 1.5-liter gas engine found in most cars today and a battery- powered engine that deals out 67 horsepower and a whooping 295ft/lbs of torque, below 2000 revolutions per minute. Essentially, the Toyota Synergy Drive system, as it is so called, propels the car from a dead stop to up to 30mph. This is where the largest percent of gas is consumed. As any physics major can tell you, it takes more energy to get an object moving than to keep it moving. The battery is recharged through the braking system, as well as when the gasoline engine takes over anywhere north of 30mph. It seems like a great energy efficient and environmentally sound car, right?
You would be right if you went by the old government EPA estimates, which netted the Prius an incredible 60 miles per gallon in the city and 51 miles per gallon on the highway. Unfortunately for Toyota, the government realized how unrealistic their EPA tests were, which consisted of highway speeds limited to 55mph and acceleration of only 3.3 mph per second. The new tests which affect all 2008 models give a much more realistic rating with highway speeds of 80mph and acceleration of 8mph per second. This has dropped the Prius’s EPA down by 25 percent to an average of 45mpg. This now puts the Toyota within spitting distance of cars like the Chevy Aveo, which costs less then half what the Prius costs.
However, if that was the only issue with the Prius, I wouldn’t be writing this article. It gets much worse.
Building a Toyota Prius causes more environmental damage than a Hummer that is on the road for three times longer than a Prius. As already noted, the Prius is partly driven by a battery which contains nickel. The nickel is mined and smelted at a plant in Sudbury, Ontario. This plant has caused so much environmental damage to the surrounding environment that NASA has used the ‘dead zone’ around the plant to test moon rovers. The area around the plant is devoid of any life for miles.
The plant is the source of all the nickel found in a Prius’ battery and Toyota purchases 1,000 tons annually. Dubbed the Superstack, the plague-factory has spread sulfur dioxide across northern Ontario, becoming every environmentalist’s nightmare.
“The acid rain around Sudbury was so bad it destroyed all the plants and the soil slid down off the hillside,” said Canadian Greenpeace energy-coordinator David Martin during an interview with Mail, a British-based newspaper.
All of this would be bad enough in and of itself; however, the journey to make a hybrid doesn’t end there. The nickel produced by this disastrous plant is shipped via massive container ship to the largest nickel refinery in Europe. From there, the nickel hops over to China to produce ‘nickel foam.’ From there, it goes to Japan. Finally, the completed batteries are shipped to the United States, finalizing the around-the-world trip required to produce a single Prius battery. Are these not sounding less and less like environmentally sound cars and more like a farce?
Wait, I haven’t even got to the best part yet.
When you pool together all the combined energy it takes to drive and build a Toyota Prius, the flagship car of energy fanatics, it takes almost 50 percent more energy than a Hummer - the Prius’s arch nemesis.
Through a study by CNW Marketing called “Dust to Dust,” the total combined energy is taken from all the electrical, fuel, transportation, materials (metal, plastic, etc) and hundreds of other factors over the expected lifetime of a vehicle. The Prius costs an average of $3.25 per mile driven over a lifetime of 100,000 miles - the expected lifespan of the Hybrid.
The Hummer, on the other hand, costs a more fiscal $1.95 per mile to put on the road over an expected lifetime of 300,000 miles. That means the Hummer will last three times longer than a Prius and use less combined energy doing it.
So, if you are really an environmentalist - ditch the Prius. Instead, buy one of the most economical cars available - a Toyota Scion xB. The Scion only costs a paltry $0.48 per mile to put on the road. If you are still obsessed over gas mileage - buy a Chevy Aveo and fix that lead foot.
One last fun fact for you: it takes five years to offset the premium price of a Prius. Meaning, you have to wait 60 months to save any money over a non-hybrid car because of lower gas expenses.
OMG-
What a joke, Micael.
The Aveo is not within spitting distance of the Prius on the EPAs city cycle, now is it?
According to the EPA, the Aveo gets 23 or 24 mpg in the city depending on the model. the Prius achieves 48 mpg in the city according to the EPA.
That's spitting distance? Such a statement is simply stupid.
Even on the highway the Aveo is rated 32 or 34 mpg, according to the EPA. The Prius is 45 mpg. That's still a pretty significant difference. Additionally, the Prius is bigger, safer and more comfortable that the Aveo, so is that really a good comparison?
Only when you are trying to make an unfounded, subjective point.
Congestion according to numerous transportation studies is briskly increasing in the US and the world and is supposed to get far worse in the future, yet the fact that the Prius achieves more than twice the fuel economy of the smaller, crappier Aveo doesn't resonate with you?
Are you stoned or something? How can you be expected to be taken seriously?
Not long ago, Cars.com, for instance independently tested the Prius in tough urban congestion - which is not how the EPA does its city cycle testing - and found the prius to achieve almost 60 mpg in such conditions. Your Aveo, in horrible congestion might achieve less than 20 mpg.
So, please let's get real.
And your Nickel assessment.... You are obviously drawing on the CNW study it seems. LOL!
that CNW study used Nickel smelting data that is outdated by like 2 decades if i recall correctly - this story is sooo old.
do some objective research. there are many in the science community that have refuted this nickel smelting contention. likewise, the Prius battery is almost entirely recyclable.
there is, however, a case to be made for more energy being required to make a prius than most new vehicles. this issue is completely about supply chains.
every single new technology ever developed always has less efficient supply chains than current technologies.
once those supply chains are developed, however, those new technologies completely replace those old technologies don't know, but developing those supply chains takes time. to expect them to be equal initially is simply ignorant of mass-production dynamics.
ever hear of economies of scale? this is economics 101 here. yet, you're surprised?
nonetheless, NiMH isn't the future of EVs. Even lithium might not be the ultimate future. battery technology is evolving, and every single automaker in the world is investing massive amounts of money in the electrification of the automobile, yet none of them know what they are doing. none of them are as smart as you?
it's a good thing people like you aren't leading the commercialization of technology, cuz we'd still be living in the stone ages.
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