New EPA Fuel Mileage, Hybrid Cars and the Future

Boy, oh, boy some critics of hybrid cars couldn't wait to talk about how the new EPA estimates for fuel economy might affect hybrids.

The Detroit News just couldn't contain themselves in the article, Fuel test overhaul may dent hybrids, as you can tell from the title.

No, No, Detroit News, tell me how you really feel.

Anyway, the article states, "The Environmental Protection Agency announced an overhaul in the way it estimates fuel economy Tuesday, a move that could shake up showroom transactions, especially in the booming hybrid segment."

Under the new methods, the city fuel mileage estimates for most vehicles would drop 10 to 20 percent from today's estimates, depending on the vehicle. The highway mileage estimates would generally drop 5 percent to 15 percent, the EPA has stated.

The DetroitNews and others have noted that for hybrid vehicles; however, city driving numbers will drop 20 to 30 percent.

What I find most amusing about this whole discussion is how much hybrid critics like to discuss the shortcomings of hybrids. Critics constantly note that hybrids are only 1% of total sales and will never achieve more than 5% of U.S sales, therefore, they are insignificant.

Fine, if that's your belief, why do hybrid critics care so much about hybrids?

But let's get back to the EPA numbers.

When Consumer Reports did their fuel economy tests last year, it found that the biggest offenders in terms of real world city mileage were conventional vehicles, in contrast to the EPA. In fact, 9 out the 10 of the biggest offenders WERE NOT hybrids and those vehicles missed their EPA estimates by 35% on average. The worst offender, the Jeep Liberty diesel, missed its EPA estimates by 50%!

Another offender, according to CR, the Chrysler 300C, is supposed to achieve 17 mpg in the city, but actually only achieved 10 mpg. Yet, the DetroitNews and other hybrid critics are complaining about hybrids? In my mind, 10 mpg is simply unacceptable in today's world and that should be the real issue regarding American fuel economy.

Yet, the EPA numbers don't demonstrate CR's findings. Why?

While I don't know the answer, my guess is that because other cars don't fare as poorly, this raises the overall average for all vehicles in a particular class. In any regard, it demonstrates that the new EPA numbers are still very unreliable.

Also since these new numbers could affect the way CAFE is determined, one has to wonder if some politics aren't involved in the mix. If it were demonstrated that conventional vehicles were vastly less fuel efficient than the EPA has stated, then CAFE might have to be refigured. Such a move would probably immediately bankrupt both Ford and GM.

Since there aren't many hybrids available, on the other hand, one hybrid with poor city mileage can skew the whole hybrid fleet. Honda hybrids, for example, haven't performed as well in the city as Toyota hybrids, are the results of these hybrids averaged? If so, is that fair?

Ultimately, the testing methods of the EPA are still in question. Ironically, "Officials at the Alliance for Automobile Manufacturers, the auto industry's Washington lobbying group, cautioned that real-world mileage still varies from driver to driver."

Do hybrids save money.

OK, let's say the Toyota Prius hybrid car only achieves 45 mpg in the city. CR found that the Ford Fusion only achieves 17 mpg in the city. While the new EPA estimates favor the fusion, the Prius is still THREE times more fuel efficient than the Fusion in the city.

Now, if you drive on the highway all the time and never drive in congestion, the Prius won't offer near the savings, but it will still offer significantly better fuel economy than the Fusion. On the other hand, if you live in any major urban area in the U.S., the Prius could save you around $1000.00 per year compared to similarly sized conventional vehicles. That makes the Prius a pretty awesome deal.

Perhaps you're somewhere in the middle, so in 5 years you've only saved $2500. That at least covers the base MSRP price difference between the Prius and the Fusion. Keep the Prius a couple more years and you've done well, and if gas prices spike in the next 7 years, then you've done really well.

With the situation in Iran brewing, spikes in gasoline prices are becoming almost inevitable. The real question regarding gas costs isn't will gasoline prices go higher, but how much higher will gasoline prices go?

In the end, hybrid vehicle buyers, not hybrid critics, will have the last laugh, despite the EPA's new numbers.