Are hybrid vehicles forever marginal or a step into the future?
Over the weekend I've been contemplating the article, Despite car show hype, hybrids, diesels will remain marginal.Not only does the article dismiss hybrid cars, diesels and small autos, but even fuel cell vehicles, which is contrary to the typical hybrid critic. Many critics call hybrids an interim step to fuel cells - a distraction if you will - but they do see a changing market. While I disagree, seeing hybrids as an essential step toward fuel cell hybrid vehicles, that's not the point.
Mr. Winton, the author of the article, seems to think nothing will change and that America will forever be dominated by the size of the motor, not fuel efficiency. Now Mr.Winton does note that gas prices have to remain at $2.00 per gallon for his future to take place.
I say the days of $2.00 gas are long over, which immediately calls into question the entire logic of Mr. Winton.
This year, $3.00+ gasoline will become commonplace in many parts of the U.S. for an extended period of time - possibly forever - and the possibility of spikes as high as $4.00 or $5.00 are almost a certainty. This alone could significantly affect demand for hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels, etc.
With significant hurricane activity expected the next several years, combined with limited oil refinery capacity and ever-increasing world demand, higher gasoline prices are inevitable for America.
But that isn't the whole story.
Environmental concerns and foreign oil dependency could also push many more Americans to completely rethink their vehicles and the relationship their vehicle has to world politics. Still, that isn't even the whole story.
I'm a Gen-X'er and I've grown up around computers. The way computer technology has advanced and become 'dirt' cheap in the last 20 years is truly mind-bending.
Well, hybrid technology is largely dependent upon the very same computer technology.
Hybrids will become cheaper; however, they will never match the cost of conventional vehicles. That is probably a fact. Nonetheless, as hybrid technology becomes cheaper, it will also become significantly more powerful.
This means that hybrids will not only offer significantly more fuel efficiency than their conventional counterparts in the next generations - more easily justifying the cost difference - but they will offer far more speed and power at the same time. That is the nature of computer technology.
Mr. Winton can continue to write about the marginality of hybrid cars on his typewriter, but hybrids, just as personal computers 20 years ago, are simply a young, barely-tapped, emerging technology. In 10 years hybrid technology will evolve significantly. Gasoline engine technology; on the other hand, will have changed about as much as, well, typewriter technology in the last 20 years.
Labels: Foreign Oil Dependency, fuel cells, fuel efficiency, Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
10:22 AM
8 Comments:
You have picked the most expensive least effecient Hybrids and completely ignored the real cost of gasoline. The fast, quiet, comfortable, relaible 66 mpg 2006 Honda Insight costs about $20,000, about the same as an Accord. But in it's 210,000 mile lifetime at 60 vs 30 MPG it will use 3500 less gallons of gasoline. At $2.00 each that's NPV of $7000 less - over $6000. Ie all other costs equal - and experience says it is, it costs $14,000. Now if gas goes up to $3 .. pretty cheap insurance. Say, who did you say you worked for?
Are you asking me or Mr. Winton?
I haven't picked any specific hybrids, I think all hybrids are great.
The Honda Insight hybrid is a great car. My biggest problem with the Insight is its limited seating.
Still, for a driver like me, the Insight isn't the best hybrid deal. The Honda Insight hybrid isn't a pure city hybrid. In my driving conditions the Insight will not get 60 mpg.
For my driving conditions - in terms of pure fuel efficiency - the Prius is the best deal.
Nonetheless, I'm certainly not stating that hybrids aren't a deal today. Depending upon your driving conditions, most hybrids will at least come out even in costs, some can even save money.
My point is that hybrids are a good buy today, but they are an even greater buy tomorrow.
To call hybrids "marginal" is a huge mistake - that's my point.
I just found that the EPA has (or is building) a database of real-world mileages for many late-model cars:
Shared MPG Estimates
For the 2005 Prius their results are:
Number of Vehicles: 77
Average User MPG: 47.6
Range: 32 - 61 MPG
Updated On: 01/17/2006
It's important to remember that hybrid foes often claim that the Prius has a small increase in mileage (real world) over the Toyota Camry. Using this new EPA source, we see that the (2005, 4cyl, auto) Camry gets:
Number of Vehicles: 14
Average User MPG: 27.8
Range: 21 - 35 MPG
Updated On: 01/17/200
Far from being a minor improvement, the average Prius is scoring a 71% increase in mileage over the Camry!
Thanks for the information, Odograph.
Hey, you're a diesel/biodiesel advocate, aren't you Odograph? I know it's only a concept car, but what do you think of the Ford Reflex Diesel Hybrid?
I think the Reflex is pretty cool. It will be interesting to see what Ford and GM choose to put in production over the next few years.
They've had more efficient cars in Europe that we've had here ... but I think it is kind of a "not invented here" thing from the standpoint of Detroit.
Anyway, I like efficient/environmental cars, and try to judge them by how they do - and not play technological favorites.
pfft, typo should be "than we've had here"
I wasn't trying to pigeon-hole your views in any way. My apologies if it came across that way.
Not at all, it's just that I didn't want to come off as the reverse of the "hybrid hype" guys.
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