The future of hybrid vehicles

I was recently interviewed for an article regarding hybrid cars and the question posed to me was, "Will the hybrid powertrain be the dominant powertrain by 2012?"

While I said that it would not, I noted that analysts currently predicting total hybrid sales achieving just 5% of the market by 2012, were just as wrong in that prediction as they were when they predicted the complete failure of the Toyota Prius.

Just today the article, Forget hybrids, America; diesels will provide economy, performance argues that America should focus on diesel, not hybrids, especially because Ford is a leading player.

So now diesel is the answer to America's oil problems? Please!

According to Ken Miller, an oil industry analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Houston, "New environmental rules for diesel will go into effect on Jan. 1 that are expected to add a few more cents per gallon to the cost of diesel. The day when diesel was cheaper than gasoline is probably over." (AutoWeek) Yet, diesel is the answer?

Others might say that bio-diesel can make diesel vehicles cheaper to run, but I doubt this to be true if a significant percentage of Americans begin to drive bio-diesel. Where will the fuel come from? What if severe weather causes drought or storm that destroys fuel crops? Bio-diesel can absolutely help end foreign oil dependency, but it cannot do it alone.

I say build flex-fuel hybrids because doing so could save America as much as a trillion dollars (more).

There was a time when technology was the strength of America, yet today, the strength of America seems controlled by whether oil is cheap or not. Additionally, many automotive writers, probably the ones who refused to use a computer for as long as possible, continue to wear blinders.

How many more conflicts in the Middle East, how much more evidence of pollution and global warming, how much more evidence that America is continually losing its technological stronghold, will it take before America embraces the future - a future that will be dominated by technology, not cheap oil?

America has for too long chosen the easy path, a path that has been enforced by military power and executed with a complete disregard for the environment. Suddenly, however, the easy path is neither so easy, nor cost-effective.

While hybrid cars might not dominate the future, hybrid technology is just an emerging technology that can lead to 100 mpg fuel efficiency within 10 years if automakers create bio-diesel hybrids, plug-in hybrids, or even solar-powered plug-in hybrids - while also helping hydrogen, electric, and fuel cell vehicle development.

Can diesel achieve that in a decade?

The future of the world, especially the automotive world, will not be driven by cheap oil, but by technology and that technological advancement needs to begin now. Sure America can wait, but the longer it waits, the more technologically obsolete America will become.

Besides, isn't it time America invests in America, rather than in filthy rich oil companies?