RE: Challenges ahead for Toyota hybrids

Challenges in the hybrid space are not for Toyota, the real challenges belong to Toyota's hybrid competitors

The coolest thing about the article Challenges ahead for Toyota hybrids was the statement, "With Hurricane Katrina pushing American gas pump prices above $3 a gallon, Toyota Motor may find itself yet again in the right place at the right time, with a new, half-mile-long assembly line capable of producing gasoline-electric hybrid Prius cars at the rate of one a minute."

The rest of the article isn't bad, but the title is just wrong. What challenges, exactly, is Toyota facing?

First, an "increasingly competitive marketplace may prove to be the biggest for Toyota." The article argues that it isn't necessarily the competition, but the nature of tax credits that will cause the headache for Toyota by helping the competition. Ultimately, each manufacturer is only allowed 60,000 tax credits. Obviously, Toyota will run out of credits almost immediately, and this is seen a challenge to Toyota and a benefit to the competition.

Still, while the tax credits are a bit unfair, is this really a problem?

If each automaker, aside from Toyota, is only interested in selling 60,000 hybrid cars, then hybrids are already dead. Quite simply, this is a non-issue. With or without tax incentives, the Toyota Prius hybrid, for example, is a great vehicle at a reasonable price. The same should be true for the soon-to-be-released second generation Honda Civic hybrid. These vehicles will sell, regardless of tax credits, and the challenge will be for Ford, GM and Chrysler to compete against these products.

Hybrid SUVs, on the other hand, such as the Ford Escape hybrid or the Toyota Highlander hybrid, are questionable buys in terms of cost. Tax credits definitely help close the deal on these first generation, expensive hybrid vehicles. Nonetheless, it is the cost of hybrid components that elevates the price of these hybrids. As more and more hybrid vehicles are developed - by all manufacturers - the costs of these components will be reduced. More important, hybrid components will become more fuel efficient and powerful, offsetting more and more the price of hybrids.

Second, the Times questions consumers' willingness to buy hybrid vehicles that aren't as fuel efficient as expected and that fall "short of federal economy ratings".

HMMMM. Yesterday, AAA lobbied Congress to make EPA fuel economy ratings more accurate (more). Was this because the EPA does such a bad job of predicting hybrid car fuel efficiency?

NOOOOOOO!!!!!

This was because, ALL VEHICLES DO NOT MEET EPA FUEL ECONOMY RATINGS, which is a big problem in terms of foreign oil dependency. Consumers need to know the truth.

One of the biggest problems with the EPA is that it assumes that most drivers do the majority of their driving at 55 mpg on wide open highways. Anyone that lives near LA, San Francisco, Houston, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston, etc, knows that 55 mph driving is a rare luxury, not the norm.

Conventional vehicles not only achieve far less than their EPA fuel economy ratings, they also pollute far more in the conditions of day to day urban driving. On the contrary, hybrids - even the much criticized Lexus RX400h - achieve their best fuel economy while emitting the fewest pollutants in these same conditions. In actuality, studies have shown that most vehicles - NOT HYBRIDS - achieve about 20 to 30 percent less fuel efficiency than the EPA estimates.

In real world driving for a majority of Americans, hybrids are much more fuel efficient than conventional automobiles, PERIOD.

I'd say Toyota is facing the fewest challenges when it comes to hybrids. If Toyota hybrids aren't successful, then hybrids - by all manufacturers - will not be successful. Toyota has already faced the toughest challenges, challenges which GM, Chrysler, and BMW have yet to face.