Fuel cell vehicles versus hybrids, Part 1

The'Hydrogen Highway' has been touted by American automakers, especially GM, as the answer to America's energy problems. Unfortunately, the hum of hydrogen and fuel cells has been in the air for decades, yet the reality of the hydrogen highway might still be decades away.

Even worse, lobbyists from GM, on numerous occasions, have coaxed American Congresspeople not to enact stricter fuel economy regulations because such actions would interfere with the development of fuel cell vehicles. Essentially, the huge profits margins that GM makes on foreign-oil guzzling SUVs would be reduced and this would cut into fuel cell development.

Thus, America's national fuel economy is no better now that it was in the 1980s, and with more and more Americans driving, our need for foreign oil regularly increases.

When Toyota and Honda began developing hybrid cars, American automakers laughed and ridiculed them. Only about a year ago, GM's Bob Lutz joked that hybrids make a nice marketing story, but a poor business story. Since, GM spends almost $3 billion per year on marketing, I'll assume Mr. Lutz knows a lot about marketing.

Yet, I wonder if Mr. Lutz still thinks hybrids are a poor business story? Toyota continues to rack up month after month of great sales - without incentives - as the Toyota Prius hybrid and Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive rack up 100,000's of sales. GM, on the other hand, loses more than $1000.00 per vehicle when averaged across its fleet.

Don't worry, GM tells us, fuel cell vehicles are just around the corner to the save the day. Never mind the fact that fuel cell vehicles cost almost $1,000,000 per vehicle, that they won't work in cold climates, that there isn't any place to fuel them, and numerous other issues.

Still, GM says don't worry.

The hybrid leader, Toyota, also believes very heavily in fuel cells, but Toyota believes hybrid vehicles are a natural transition to fuel cells. In fact, Toyota hopes that much of its current hybrid powertrain will be the foundation of its fuel cell vehicles.

Still, lately, I find myself wondering, are fuel cell vehicles even that important?

While current hybrid technology isn't enough to solve America's oil crisis, what about the next generation of hybrid technology? Plug-in hybrids, for example, can make current hybrids, such as the Ford Escape hybrid or the Toyota Highlander hybrid, significantly more fuel efficient. Moreover, other experimental hybrids have been demonstrated to achieve as much as 250 mpg, at a cost that is significantly less than fuel cell vehicles.

This has prompted cities such as Austin, Texas and states, such as Pennsylvania, to seek ways to help fund experimental hybrid vehicle development.

Yet, GM is still at least a couple of years away from hybrid passenger vehicles. While GM still has time to get into the hybrid race, I cannot help but wonder if they are even serious about the move. Rather, it seems that GM has risked its entire future on proprietary fuel cell technology.

Hopefully, GM will succeed, but what if they fail? GM is not just risking the failure of GM Corporation, but of an important source of American jobs, and an incredibly important part of the American economy.

Katrina, the strong likelihood of future hurricanes, and the threat terrorism - let alone rising global demand for oil - demonstrate the extreme vulnerability of America's energy sector and the dangers of gas-guzzling.

Can fuel cell vehicles really be developed quickly enough to solve this vulnerability, or must America - in the short term - focus on second generation hybrid technology, plug-in's and other experimental hybrid vehicles?

This will be the focus of Part II.