Re: Polk's hybrid vehicle adoption study

R.L. Polk and Co. is set to release its new hybrid vehicle adoption study, which doesn't provide too many surprising details. Most notably "97 percent of respondents recognize hybrid vehicle terminology","78 percent of respondents would consider buying a hybrid vehicle", but "61 percent indicate they are concerned with price".

Yesterday, Ronald Jones of MSNBC asked, Is a hybrid car really good for your wallet? Ultimately, Mr. Jones found it really depends, but in many cases, no. While the Toyota Prius is the most cost-effective hybrid and many hybrids are cost-effective - or can be - over the long term, most hybrid cars are not really going to save you money.

Of course, hybrids can be a edge against further increases in the price of oil and gasoline. Additionally, if congestion, or stop-and-go traffic, is a regular part of your commute - as it is for many millions of Americans - hybrids become much more cost effective.

Moreover, Mr. Jones bases much of his cost effectiveness on Edmunds.com. I've written many times that the Edmunds study wasn't well done. In particular, it assumes that most hybrid drivers will do some 75 percent of their driving on the open highway. I live in Los Angeles and like many drivers in Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, etc, the far majority of my driving is done in congestion - the ideal conditions to achieve a hybrid's best fuel efficiency.

According to transportation studies by the government and academics, congestion is getting far worse year after year, and not in just large cities, but even in suburban and rural areas. In these conditions, most conventional vehicles can fall short of their EPA fuel efficiency ratings by as much as 35 percent, while causing obscene amounts of pollution.

Consequently, for many, hybrid vehicles are about something much greater than just saving money. They are about saving the environment and ending foreign oil dependency. While foreign oil dependency isn't accurately accounted for in the price of oil, there is no doubt that America's geo-political oil interests have had a significant impact upon the national security of America.

Thus, there are plenty of people willing to buy the current supply of hybrids, which will lead to better and cheaper hybrid technology, and hybrids offer great potential. Recently, an article noted that experimental hybrids can achieve 250 mpg.

Why are waiting for fuel cells if current technology has the ability to accomplish so much, for just a fraction of the cost of fuel cells and a new energy infrastructure?

The fact that so many people are so aware of hybrid vehicles and that so many are willing to buy them indicates the vast growth potential of hybrids. For such a new technology, still just an emerging technology, the future looks very bright.

Further, the technology behind hybrids is very much like the technology behind computers. Ten years ago most Americans were interested in buying a computer, but thought they were still too expensive. Today, many Americans own multiple computers.

I expect the same thing will happen to hybrids. Hybrid vehicles might not always be the cheapest technology, but they will be the best technology - the best technology that continually gets better and cheaper.