Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Hybrid Cars: 3 percent or 50 percent?

Are hybrid cars just a niche?

Are hybrids just an interim technology to hydrogen fuel-cells?

Do hybrids represent shallowness?

While I agree that hybrids might be an intermim technology to the hydrogen economy, I also think that hybrid vehicles might develop and refine the necessary technology to cheaply and efficiently enable the hydrogen economy.

Hybrid cars would, essentially, transform into hydrogen and/or fuel-cell powered vehicles.

As the other two questions above demonstrate, some analysts think otherwise.

Anthony Pratt of J.D. Power and Associates believes that hybrid vehicles will never capture more than 3 percent of the U.S. market. Moreover, Pratt claims it will take another 6 years to even achieve 3 percent sales, at which point sales will drop in favor of some hydrogen alternative.

Toyota, on the other hand, believes hybrids will be 50 percent of the market by 2025.

Pretty huge difference.

The fact that such a bold prediction comes from Toyota, a rising auto giant, loaded with profit, and the hybrid car leader, causes pause.

If American auto execs think along the same lines as Mr. Pratt and Toyota, rather than Mr. Pratt, is correct, then Ford and GM might be in serious trouble.

More hybrid vehicles.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Paz said...

More people should learn about electric vehicles as a solution. "Zero emissions" is something that's going to be required by law one day (you know it will). Making the decision to go electric is far cheaper anyway, like 10 cents on the dollar vs. gas. (source: zapworld.com)

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