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Wednesday, January 19, 2005

The Hybrid Car Hustle

What's up with Detroit? Last week, at the North American International Auto Show, probably the most important auto event in the world, the word on the floor was hybrid vehicles.

Even Truck of the Year, an especially important American customer segment, went to a hybrid, the Ford Escape Hybrid.

GM and DaimlerChrysler introduced a diesel-electric hybrid concept vehicle, and re-announced full hybrid versions of the Tahoe and Yukon, followed by a full Sierra / Silverado hybrid.

Not to be out done, Ford announced that the Mercury Mariner hybrid would reach the market this year, a year earlier than expected. Then Ford upped the ante by announcing not only a hybrid Freestyle, but also a Mazda Tribute hybrid, a Mercury Milano hybrid, and a Focus hybrid, with all models expected to reach market within three years.

Then Toyota, gaining on GM as the world's largest automaker, unwilling to lose face in light of Ford's hybrid hustle, went all in.

This year not only will Prius demand be met, but Toyota will announce where it will start building hybrids, such as the Prius, in the United States.

Moreover, Toyota announced to the world that the hybrid powertrain is the future for Toyota. Yes, gasoline engines might be improved, or diesel, hydrogen, or fuel-cells, but the hybrid powertrain, Toyota believes, can make each of those power sources better.

Toyota's next hybrid, the Lexus RX400h Hybrid, already has received more than 11,000 pre-orders. Additionally, interest in the Highlander hybrid is off the wall by industry standards.

Already Toyota is expecting to sell at least 100,000 Prius hybrids in 2005, yet the buzz building around the Highlander hybrid seems to indicate that the Highlander hybrid, an SUV, could be even more popular than the Prius.

Recently, Ford announced that it will easily sell 20,000 Escape hybrids in 2005, and if more hybrid batteries are located, they will produce even more.

Since the Escape hybrid uses leased Toyota hybrid technology, the price of the Highlander hybrid, with its price advantage, is going to be interesting. More importantly, what if Toyota can price the Highlander significantly less the Escape hybrid?

Why not try to steal some thunder from the North American Truck of the Year, the Ford Escape Hybrid? The opportunity facing Toyota couldn't be greater.

The Toyota Prius proved that a small, affordable, very fuel-efficient vehicle, could feel like the most innovative car ever created. But America loves SUVs, and an affordable, hybrid performer, could take that segment by storm.

Toyota's experience with hybrids bodes well for the Highlander hybrid, and I believe the Highlander hybrid has crazy American potential. American consumers aren't nearly the neanderthals the world believes. Show us we can help and we will. Well, hybrids help.

Ford and GM are not out of it yet though. While GM has dramatically and rapidly changed its position on hybrids, Ford appears to be building momentum. In addition to their more bullish position on hybrids, their commitment to hybrid cars, as well as hybrid SUVs, gives them a notch up on GM.

Honda is a wild card in the hybrid race, with the Accord hybrid and Civic hybrid already on the market, Honda could easily transition to a hybrid only automotive world - at least much easier than Ford, GM, or DaimlerChrysler.

Toyota is the one with the most to gain or lose from the hybrid hustle.

The leader has to set the pace. While Toyota has a big lead they can either move methodically, but cautiously into hybrids, playing it safe, but also allowing the competition time to reposition; or Toyota change the playing field forever.

The conundrum for Toyota will be supply and demand. The demand for affordable hybrids is without question. Based on customer interest and sales figures, by 2006, it is not hard to imagine Toyota selling 400,000 hybrid vehicles in the just the U.S. - even while more highly priced - but are they capable of meeting that level of production?

By that time, GM might not have yet sold one full hybrid in the U.S.

Furthermore, at 400,000 a year the afford-ablility factor between hybrids and conventional vehicles is reduced, especially in addition to Ford and Nissan license sales. Moreover, conventional cars will start meeting higher pollution standards in the next couple of years and those changes will inevitably lead to higher costing conventional vehicles.

Toyota's next few hybrid plays are sure to be interesting.






Labels: Accord hybrid, chevy silverado hybrid, Civic hybrid, clean diesel, electric cars, Escape hybrid, Ford, Ford Escape hybrid, fuel cells, GM, Highlander hybrid, Honda, Hybrid Vehicles, Lexus hybrid, Mariner hybrid, prius, toyota

posted by Dahcredyns at 9:36 AM

1 Comments:

Blogger Paz said...

More people should learn about electric vehicles as a solution. "Zero emissions" is something that's going to be required by law one day (you know it will). Making the decision to go electric is far cheaper anyway, like 10 cents on the dollar vs. gas. (source: zapworld.com)

12:47 PM  

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