12.8 miles: Getting the most bang for the buck from plug-in cars
Why is the plug-in Prius on the short end of plug-in tax policies?
Is America heading down the wrong plug-in path?
What’s the point of plug-in vehicles? Most would say either foreign oil independence or global warming, or both. Yet, the only way that plug-ins will have any real impact on either of those problems is by mainstreaming, as soon as possible.
To help achieve the mainstream goal, federal and local governments are offering up numerous tax incentives for plug-in purchases and for charging infrastructures, but a new study by IBM — as well as others — suggests that maybe the government, and even automakers, just aren’t taking the smart road to electrification.
Well, maybe not all automakers.
Without serious breakthroughs in battery technologies, breakthroughs that some battery experts claim could take decades to make their way into automobiles based on the evolution of the lithium-ion battery over the last 30 years, mainstreaming plug-ins is going to be extremely difficult. Even massive tax incentives and higher gas prices probably won’t be enough to mainstream plug-ins for decades.
So, what’s the easiest way to keep plug-in costs down in order to increase market penetration potential? Use as little battery as necessary, and that brings us to IBM.
According to an IBM congestion and road rage study, the average one-way commute today is 12.8 miles, almost exactly the electric range of the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid, and just a few miles less range than what a recent UK cost of ownership study found to be the ideal plug-in electric range through 2030.
Aside from Toyota, such electric ranges will also probably be similar to some of Ford’s plug-in hybrids. Of course, companies like GM could also reduce the electric range of the Chevy Volt, for instance, but right now federal tax credits don’t support such a move. Instead the government is rewarding cost-ineffectiveness with its plug-in subsidies.
Is the government biased against Toyota? To date US automakers still can’t compete with the Toyota Prius, so a little plug-in protectionism doesn’t seem far-fetched, especially against Toyota. Anyway…
Likewise, if the US government is going to spend additional tax payer money on charging infrastructure, shouldn’t they focus those expenditures on the places where consumers most commute to — the workplace? Not only does the workplace make great sense for plug-in charging, but for smart grid technologies and alternative energies, such as solar rooftops. Furthermore, such a focus enables small-battery plug-in hybrids to provide most commuters with gasoline-free driving for most commutes, while offering 50 mpg+ fuel economy for all other commutes — in the cheapest, most consumer friendly package available.
Today, conventional hybrid cars are a tough sell for most consumers. The hybrid premium is just too much for most consumers to accept upfront. The plug-in premium is even worse, and in the case of pure electrics, this premium is coupled with range limitations that most consumers won’t accept. Most consumers simply want the same car for Monday through Friday commuting, as well as that 300 mile weekend trip. Thus, any chance of mainstream plug-in success has to be driven by a focus on cost-effectiveness, without range limitations.
And when it comes to plug-in cost-effectiveness, the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid offers the most bang for the buck barring a major battery breakthrough, or a complete revolution in car consumer psychology. Unfortunately, cost-effectiveness doesn’t appear to be the primary goal of the government’s plug-in tax policy. Of course, when has cost-effectiveness ever been the primary goal of Washington, DC?
Still, it might be time for the government to focus less on politics when it comes to energy policy, and more on the cost-effectiveness needed for real change.
Driving conditions will still determine bang for the buck. However, take away the tax credits and the plug-in Prius easily wins. And let’s not fool ourselves, the tax credits were written to protect the Volt, otherwise, the Leaf would qualify for a greater tax credit than the Volt.
Additionally, there have been several battery researchers and studies that have questioned the logic behind the tax credit, which is basically based on battery size, but has nothing to do with EV range.
FYI.
Toyota just announced their plug-in Prius pricing…
$32,000 bas price
$39,500 Fully loaded.
Considering the tax credit will only be $2500, that makes the gap pretty small between the PIP and the Volt. For a fully loaded vehicle there is no gap at all.
Those numbers change the equation significantly…….
40 miles EV range is now the most bang for the buck…..