10 years, minimally, before the plug-in revolution gears up?
Who killed the electric? An ignorant question?
The battery-powered world according to DOE secretary Chu
In the next 10 years, automakers will probably sell at least 150 million new vehicles in the US alone. Most of them will be traditional gas-guzzlers, although many will be turbo charged, fewer cylinder-engined guzzlers — a positive step at least. Nevertheless, many of those 150 million new guzzlers; however, will be on US roads for up to another 2 decades. Guzzling. Guzzling. Guzzling.
That paints a pretty sad story of US foreign energy dependence for at least the next 3 decades — a terrible tale that is supported by the latest suggestions from Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu.
According to recent statements by Chu, new prototype batteries for plug-in vehicles that will be equal to non-plug-ins in terms of costs should be available by the ’20′s. Prototypes.
But let’s just ignore the ‘prototype’ aspect of that statement.
Obviously, just because a plug-in is cost-equivalent to a non-plug-in doesn’t mean that consumers will flock en mass to such vehicles. Scaling takes time. Likewise, a huge percentage of Americans can’t even plug-in during off-peak hours. Also, does plug-in cost-effectiveness include all vehicles, or just passenger cars?
What about crossovers, pickups and SUVs?
Regardless, considering that US auto sales will average around 150 million vehicles per decade, that’s a pretty scary story. Consequently, if it takes several years more to scale these “prototype” batteries into a mainstream solution over the course of the ’20′s, 2, 3 or even 400 million additional gas-guzzler sales are inevitable BEFORE the plug-in revolution really even begins. Again, those are guzzlers that will be on US roads for an additional decade or two after sale — dependent upon gasoline for decades longer.
At least that’s the latest word from a well-educated, well-positioned plug-in optimist.
And I’m the pessimist?!
Sad but true I’m afraid…
Hybrid adoption rate has been slow. The same will be true for EV’s. This does not make either a failure. It is simply the realities of new product adoption rates. It would take a severe and sustained oil crisis to change this.
As a “nation”, most of the progress in foreign oil dependency in the next 10 years will be made with alternative fuels, improved efficiency, and increased domestic production. Unfortunately, all of these will also be much less than we hoped as well.
Of course that does not prevent “individuals” from becoming less foreign oil dependent. Something I highly recommend. Choice “are” becoming available for individuals to reduce their own foreign oil consumption.
Global oil demand will continue to push the limits of global oil production, even with the addition of tar-sand and fracking oil, causing more gasoline price spikes in the coming years. These gasoline price spikes will be come more severe and more frequent. The only protection you can have is to be less dependent on foreign oil yourself. The less gasoline you use, the less impact gasoline price spikes will have on you.