10 percent by 2020: Ensuring America is a “plaything of diverse interests”
Wikileaks underscore Middle East dangers
Is just 10 percent already a bust?
By 2020, Nissan believes electric cars could account for 10 percent of all auto sales, while JD Power believes hybrid and electric cars will account for less than 8 percent of all auto sales combined.
Regardless of which forecast is correct, are not both pathetically underwhelming and even dangerous?
By 2020, hybrid cars will have been on the road for two decades, yet they will only have achieved about 5 percent of total vehicle sales, with plug-ins achieving another 2 percent of sales – about the same share as today’s hybrids after a decade – if JD Power is correct. Considering that JD Power’s hybrid forecasts have been pretty accurate for the last decade, and they have no self-serving interests other than to be accurate, it’s hard not to take JD Power seriously.
But, let’s say that JD Power just doesn’t have the inside knowledge of an automaker like Nissan, a company purportedly willing to spend at least several billion over the next decade on electric cars. Maybe 10 percent penetration by 2020 is achievable.
What would 10 percent plug-in sales by 2020 mean?
Unfortunately, even the high end forecast of 10 percent EV penetration by 2020 means almost nothing, at least in terms of foreign oil dependence or CO2 emission’s reductions. Even if 100 percent penetration were achieved by 2020 in the US, for instance, it would still take another 2 decades to replace America’s current 250 million strong fleet of gas guzzlers. This legacy effect makes 10 percent EV penetration by 2020 just shy of irrelevant, particularly in the short-to-mid term.
Of course, plug-ins are not irrelevant. Moving away from fossil fuels is inevitable, so electrification must be advanced. Hence, 10 percent EV penetration by 2020 is a good step, but it’s a small step. Furthermore, it’s a step that clearly demonstrates that plugs-ins are a mid-to-long term solution to foreign oil dependence.
How many more decades can the US rely on foreign oil?
In just the past two decades, massive problems have been created by US foreign oil dependence, and the latest Wikileak’s leak demonstrates that America is becoming “a plaything of diverse interests” in the Middle East because of this foreign energy dependence. More problems are inevitable, especially when it’s an undeniable fact that America will still be heavily dependent upon foreign oil decades from now.
So, forgive me when I mock well-intentioned plug-in advocates on board the auto industry’s green bandwagon. It’s just not that green. Forgive me when I criticize plug-in vehicles like the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt for being ridiculously cost-ineffective compared to a vehicle like the Toyota Prius – a vehicle already perceived to be ridiculously cost-ineffective to most consumers. They just don’t offer enough bang for the buck soon enough.
It’s not that I can’t see a small bit of light at the end of the tunnel thanks to these plug-in vehicles, it’s just that the mountain of history ready to collapse at the other end of this extremely long tunnel is undeniable.
Maybe in 2025 both the Leaf and the Volt will have evolved into revolutionary, mainstreaming plug-in vehicles. Hopefully, foreign oil dependence doesn’t crush us along the way.
CaTiC-
Without tax incentives there is no way that BEVs make financial sense. A Leaf costs $20,000 more than a Versa. A Versa driver won’t even spend $20,000 on gas for the life of the vehicle. Plus, automakers could add new, more efficient engines, turbo-chargers, direct injection, etc. to a vehicle like the Versa for very little extra money once scaled for much less cost than a battery, while achieving fairly significant gains in fuel economy. right now there is just no incentive.
And, let’s remember, 10 percent by 2020 is the HIGH prediction. JD Power analyzes supply chains, for instance, as a huge part of its analysis. It takes many years to develop supply chains, especially around new technologies. JD Power has followed these supply chains for decades, including a decade of hybrid supply chains.
Seriously, the science on this issue is pretty clear. Scientists that have worked on lithium since the beginning have provided tons of data on the subject. For instance, accounting for scale and improved manufacturing, the simple cost of the just the commodities needed for lithium batteries ensures cost-ineffectiveness unless gas prices rise significantly – even more than just a few dollars.
There are so many breakthrough technologies pending and potential oil price spikes on the horizon that I find these linear forecasts boring.
There are just too many positive factors pushing away from oil.
I find these projected numbers rather low. I wonder whether the forecasters have taken into account factors such as improved battery porformance, application to a wider range of vehicles (small pickups, SUV’s, …) consumer eductation etc.
I spend about $220 per month on gas commuting around town, shopping and driving the kids to and from activities. Using that amount to offset the extra monthly payment for a Nissan Leaf would amount to paying for a sub-compact.
BEV’s (and to a lesser degree PHEV’s) already make financial sense for many driving scenarios at current prices. And it will only get better as gas prices increase and BEV choices, performance and price improve over the next 5 years.
And I have not even mentioned the pride in knowing that I’m contributing to reducing our dependence on foreign oil AND reducing CO2 emissions…